Dak Prescott appeared in five games last season and was on an extraordinary passing-yard pace before his season-ending ankle injury. The Dallas Cowboys thus gave him a massive vote of confidence in March. Prescott signed a four-year, $160 million contract with $126 million guaranteed. This fantasy football outlook dives into Prescott’s statistical body of work, his current ADP, and helps paint a picture of what you can expect from him in 2021.
Dak Prescott’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Prescott averaged 50 pass attempts, 422.5 passing yards, and 36.3 fantasy points per game in his first four games last season. After his injury in Week 5, the Cowboys’ offense fell apart. The bulk of the quarterback snaps were taken by veteran Andy Dalton, and he only averaged 192 passing yards per game.
The Cowboys scored 31 or more points in four out of their first five games. However, Dallas only scored 31 or more points three times in the games after Prescott’s injury. Many are familiar with the plethora of skill-position weapons that the Cowboys have. We will discuss those in a moment, but let’s start with the offensive line.
The Cowboys’ offensive line should return to prominence
The Cowboys’ OL struggled to stay healthy in 2020. Right tackle La’el Collins (16 games missed), right guard Zack Martin (6), left tackle Tyron Smith (14), and left guard Cameron Erving (10) all missed significant time with injuries in 2020. Before the injury-riddled campaign, the Cowboys’ OL unit had been lauded in previous seasons for their run blocking and pass protection.
Multiple reports suggest that Collins, Martin, Smith, and Erving have not suffered any setbacks in their recovery. Therefore, the unit is well-positioned to reclaim its elite status in 2021. Prescott is also blessed with a group of receivers that would make any other NFL quarterback envious.
Prescott has an exceptional group of wide receivers
Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup all finished the 2020 season with 100+ targets.
Cooper got off to a dominant start last season with a healthy Prescott during the Cowboys’ first four games. He averaged 13 targets, 9.2 receptions, 100 receiving yards, and 21.3 PPR fantasy points per game.
Cooper’s statistical production declined from Weeks 5 to 17, however. The veteran receiver began catching passes from quarterbacks Dalton, Ben DiNucci, and Garrett Gilbert during this time. As a result, Cooper’s per-game production fell to 6.6 targets, 4.6 receptions, 59.4 receiving yards, and 12.6 PPR fantasy points per game. With Prescott back under center, the sky is the limit for Cooper in this offense.
Lamb, meanwhile, stockpiled 433 yards in his first five games with Prescott. He finished his first NFL season with 74 receptions, 935 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns. In addition, Lamb accumulated 69 receptions and 877 receiving yards from the slot — the most by a rookie receiver since 2006. He also had the second-most receiving yards and receptions of 20+ yards among all rookie receivers last season.
Gallup ended last season with the most receiving air yards (1,243) amongst Dallas receivers, though he was inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. He saw increased target volume after the Cowboys’ Week 10 bye week with Dalton under center. Prescott had a 145.8 passer rating when targeting Gallup more than 20 yards down the field in the first five games of 2020 (8 throws).
The Cowboys’ running back duo
Prescott has two very capable running backs in Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Elliott has finished as an RB1 in 61% of his 71 active career games in PPR formats. Pollard has played limited snaps in his two-year career but has averaged 5 yards per rushing attempt and has four RB1 performances on his résumé.
Prescott has a history of using Elliott as a receiver out of the backfield. Since 2016, the former Ohio State running back has averaged 4.5 targets per game. Pollard is also adept as a receiver in the open field.
The Cowboys have two capable tight ends
Tight end Blake Jarwin was poised for a breakout before a torn ACL ended his season in Week 1. This opened the door for tight end Dalton Schultz to fill the void. He averaged 5.6 targets, 4 receptions, and 38.4 receiving yards per game in 16 active games. Schultz finished as a TE1 five times last season.
Jarwin is once again being touted as a breakout candidate. Additionally, the Cowboys will have to lean heavily on the offense in 2021, which is more conducive to consistent volume.
Dallas’ defense is still a liability
The Cowboys’ defense has made improvements this offseason but could still be tested in 2021. In addition to the teams in the NFC East, they will also face the AFC West and the NFC South. As a reminder, the Cowboys’ defense allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing offenses in 2020.
Fantasy projection
Given the information we have around Prescott and looking at his fantasy outlook in Dallas, he projects for around 595 pass attempts, 4,700 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Additionally, Prescott could finish the 2021 season with around 55 rushing attempts, 270 rushing yards, and 4 rushing touchdowns. He’s in a good position to finish as a top-four fantasy quarterback.
Prescott largely has been held out of training camp with injuries this offseason. However, while there has been much speculation, the Cowboys are reportedly not expecting Prescott to miss any time. He should be good to go in Week 1.
Dak Prescott’s ADP
Prescott is being drafted in the fifth round of fantasy drafts when you play on Fleaflicker, with an ADP of 55.5. His ADP in pay-to-play fantasy formats, such as NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), is a bit higher at 63.82. Furthermore, Prescott’s ADP on Sleeper is similar to Fleaflicker at 56.
Should you draft Prescott at this ADP in 2021?
Prescott’s ADP is reasonable when compared to other quarterbacks in Tier 1. This might be because injury concerns have pushed down his cost over the last month or so. My preference is to prioritize quarterbacks in a later tier who possess a mix of upside with a demonstrated floor. Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts are two quarterbacks that immediately come to mind.