The Indianapolis 500, Daytona 500, and the Pikes Peak Hill Climb are all fantastic American races. However, the 2022 NFL Draft QB class could be one of the greatest and close-fought races of all time. Trevor Lawrence was the de facto QB1 heading into last year, but there is no consensus as we gear up for the 2021 college football season. At present, there appear to be three leading contenders. So, is Sam Howell, Spencer Rattler, or Kedon Slovis the top prospect of the 2022 NFL Draft QB class?
Will Sam Howell, Spencer Rattler, or Kedon Slovis win the race to be QB1?
Many factors will ultimately decide the QB1 of the 2022 NFL Draft class. We have an entire college football season ahead of us during which — and in the months following — there will be much statistical and film analysis. The finish line of this great race is some months away. While we’ll analyze where the key contenders are at the mid-race point, let’s go back to the start to ascertain any potential advantage coming into it.
The three key protagonists arrived into college football with differing profiles
Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler was the five-star, No. 1 pro-style quarterback of the 2019 recruiting class. Having set the state record for passing yards and appearing on the Netflix docu-series QB1, he was practically a household name before arriving in Oklahoma.
UNC’s Sam Howell was also a high school record holder, setting the North Carolina benchmark for total yardage as a four-year starter at Sun Valley. Despite that success, he wasn’t as highly regarded as Rattler, earning a four-star ranking as the No. 3 dual-threat quarterback in the class.
Although coached by Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner at Desert Mountain, USC’s Kedon Slovis was hidden by the Rattler-cast shadow in the Arizona sun. Even though lauded for his leadership, arm strength, and pose, 247 Sports listed the future USC signal-caller as a three-star prospect. Furthermore, he was only considered the 26th pro-style quarterback in the class.
High school recruiting rankings shouldn’t be a determinator of future college or NFL success. However, at this point, it was clear that Rattler was considered the better prospect in the 2022 NFL QB class than any of his surrounding competition.
Statistical analysis of the race to be QB1 in the 2022 NFL Draft class
Rattler was the highest-ranked recruit of the 2022 NFL Draft QB class, but the situation is as important as talent. Although he landed in an ideal situation with the quarterback-friendly Oklahoma offense, Rattler wouldn’t start for the Sooners as a freshman.
Meanwhile, Howell immediately took the reigns of the North Carolina offense while Slovis capitalized on an injury to J.T. Daniels to win the USC starting job as a freshman.
The differing experience level makes a straightforward comparison of some statistics. For example, Howell has 7,227 career passing yards while Rattler has 3,112 due to substantially fewer attempts in just one entire season as a starter. Even as a two-year starter for USC, Slovis’ 5,423 passing yards lag some way behind as he has attempted 114 fewer passes than the UNC quarterback.
A similar issue exists when you attempt to compare career touchdown numbers to determine the better passer. Again, Howell significantly exceeds both Rattler and Slovis in this respect.
The Tar Heel has 68 touchdowns, Slovis has 47, and Rattler has thrown 28. On the contrary, Rattler has thrown just 7 interceptions, Howell has accounted for 14, and Slovis has passed the ball to the opposition 16 times.
Comparable statistics for Rattler, Howell, and Slovis
Despite the experience differences, there are some comparable statistics that we can use to analyze who could be the top QB prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft class. Although these don’t consider scheme-specific elements or things like supporting casts, they can give us a good baseline idea of who is better than who at this moment in time.
Slovis leads the triplet in completion percentage. Given his reputation for being an accurate quarterback coming out of high school, this is hardly surprising. During his two years as the starter for USC, he has completed 70% of his passes, having completed 71.9% in his impressive freshman campaign.
Rattler comes in second with a 67.4% career completion percentage, with Howell trailing in third at 64.4%. Still, it is worth mentioning that Howell had the highest completion percentage of the trio last season.
Having a higher competition percentage isn’t the best tool to determine QB talent, and that is demonstrated in the next couple of statistics. For instance, Slovis lags behind the other two top QB prospects in the 2022 NFL Draft in career yards per attempt. Rattler’s 9.5 yards per attempt leads the way, with Howell a close second at 9.4 and Slovis at 8.3 in his career.
Advanced statistics paint the picture of a two-horse race for QB1 of the 2022 NFL Draft class
Although a comparison of touchdown and interception numbers alone is impossible due to the different experience levels, there are ways of analyzing those critical components of quarterback play.
Touchdown percentage per passing attempt and interceptions percentage per passing attempt tell us how often a quarterback finds the end zone while dropping back to pass. Conversely, it tells us how often they turn the ball over with an interception.
Rattler and Howell are incredibly close in respect of touchdown percentages per passing attempt. Rattler has scored a touchdown on 8.84% of his passes in his career, and Howell is right behind him at 8.83%.
Interestingly enough, Howell’s completion percentage and yards per attempt improved between 2019 and 2020, but his touchdown percentage decreased. Likewise, Slovis saw a similar year-on-year decrease and falls behind his competition in the 2022 QB class with 7.16% of his pass attempts resulting in a touchdown.
Where you want a higher number for touchdown percentages, a lower number is better for interception percentages. Unfortunately for Slovis, he leads the way with 2.43% of his career pass attempts resulting in interceptions. Following a shaky start to the 2020 season, Rattler is second with 2.13%, and Howell is the least interception prone with 1.81% of his passes resulting in a pick.
What is EPA/PPA, and what does it tell us about the QB1 race in the 2022 NFL Draft class?
The final statistical measurement to help us establish the leader in the race for QB1 of the 2022 NFL Draft class is Expected Points Added (EPA). EPA is a measure used to determine how much value above expectation a player adds to each play. In this article, we’re using College Football Data’s custom EPA model, which they call Predicted Points Added (PPA). Same theory, different name.
Throughout their careers, Rattler has the best overall PPA at 0.519. Howell ranks second with a PPA of 0.431, and Slovis comes in last at 0.389.
Overall, PPA is established from a combination of factors, including passing plays, running plays, and situational plays — first down, second down, and third down. Slovis’ passing PPA (0.414) is significantly closer to Rattler (0.484) and Howell (0.455) than his overall PPA. This results from a negative rushing PPA, showcasing his lack of pocket escapability compared to the other two top QB prospects.
Year on year performance for Howell and Slovis
PPA also demonstrates the regression seen in the USC quarterback’s play between 2019 and 2020.
Whether it resulted from injury, uncertainty, or just a “sophomore slump,” there was a noticeable drop-off in performance from Slovis last season. His overall PPA fell from 0.427 in 2019 to 0.351 one year later.
On the other hand, Howell exhibited a significant increase. The UNC product improved his overall PPA from 0.382 to 0.481, with substantial increases in both passing and rushing PPA.
With the best career PPA, touchdown per passing attempt percentage, yards per attempt, and second-best career completion percentage, it would appear on paper that Rattler holds a considerable lead over Howell and Slovis in the race to be the QB1 of the 2022 NFL Draft class.
Film analysis of the top QB prospects in the 2022 NFL Draft
There’s a saying that goes, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.”
While that might be true, numbers (or statistics in our case) can be manipulated to meet an argument. Furthermore, in a team sport like football, statistics can often combine the work of several players. Therefore, isolating individual accomplishments — and failures — is extremely difficult with statistics alone. That’s where the film comes in.
I recently wrote scouting reports for the top prospects in the 2022 NFL Draft QB class. In them, you can find more in-depth detail about the individual abilities and areas for improvement for Rattler, Howell, and Slovis. Nevertheless, let’s pick the meat off the bones for all three prospects in some key areas right here.
Arm Strength
Undeniably, Rattler’s best attribute is his arm strength. The Oklahoma quarterback can effortlessly drive the ball downfield. He also generates excellent zip on the ball and flashes incredible ability to throw across his body and on the move.
While Howell has shown the ability to sling the ball — with particularly impressive short throw zip — he doesn’t possess the same arm strength as Rattler, and neither does Slovis.
It will be interesting to see how the USC quarterback performs this season. Last year, it was apparent he was putting a lot of effort into driving the ball downfield. Unfortunately, this resulted in some wobbly passes that caused concern. Slovis has battled injury, so the hope is that he can return to his 2019 form as far as arm strength is concerned with an entire offseason.
Accuracy
All three QB prospects in this 2022 NFL Draft class are impressive in this regard. Howell demonstrates exceptional ball placement to all three field levels, although there are some consistency issues.
Slovis is particularly adept at placing the ball where his receivers can make yardage after the catch. Throughout his career, he has displayed the ability to put the ball anywhere on the field accurately.
Rattler’s accuracy and ball placement are secondary to his arm strength when breaking down his arm talent.
Mobility
Despite Howell being the dual-threat quarterback coming out of high school, Rattler shades this category for me. Howell has decent athleticism and uses his stocky frame to be a little more physical than the Oklahoma quarterback on the ground.
However, Rattler showcases an exceptional change of direction for a 6’1″, 205-pound quarterback. Additionally, he racked up more yards per carry and rushing touchdowns than Howell in 2020.
Mobility isn’t just defined by highlight-reel rushing plays. It also relates to the ability to maneuver in the pocket. All three have exhibited this by evading pressure in the pocket.
Football intelligence
Football intelligence is the area where Slovis excels. It’s apparent from how he reads the game that he had the tutelage of a Hall of Fame quarterback from a young age. He often surveys the field with urgency, moves quickly from one read to the next, and makes excellent decisions based on what he sees from the defense.
Unfortunately, Howell and Rattler tend to lock on to a singular target, only reading one side of the field. Although that may be a by-product of their respective offensive systems, it’s something they’ll need to improve on.
Is there a challenger from outside these top QB prospects for the 2022 NFL Draft?
In all races, an underdog can appear out of nowhere to challenge the established elite. After all, in recent NFL Draft QB classes, we’ve seen it with Zach Wilson last year and Joe Burrow the season prior.
So, although Rattler, Howell, and Slovis are the regarded front runners in this race, is there an outside challenge coming from someone further down the field?
Liberty’s Malik Willis and Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder fit the modern-day NFL quarterback model of being equally capable of making plays with their arms and legs. Meanwhile, Ole Miss QB Matt Corral is a rollercoaster ride of the highs and lows of quarterback play. Carson Strong made some eye-popping plays for Nevada last fall, and Boston College’s Phil Jurkovec emerged as a fascinating contender.
Statistically, Georgia’s Daniels led all these prospects in PPA last season. Additionally, Willis recorded a higher PPA score than Rattler and Howell in 2020. Moreover, Corral had a higher PPA last year than Rattler, and he has the third-highest career passer efficiency rating of all the prospects mentioned above. The Rebels QB also ties Howell for career yards per attempt.
Despite the intensity of the competition, one prospect currently has the edge
Although this 2022 NFL Draft QB class battle will be closely fought with an intense field of competition, to my mind, there is currently one prospect who has a slight advantage in the race.
Rattler has all the talent to be a success at the next level. He has the arm strength, the maneuverability, and the presence to be an NFL quarterback. His development throughout the 2020 season was truly impressive to me. Furthermore, he’s in an excellent position to succeed this season. The Oklahoma quarterback has an outstanding supporting cast and a head coach with a track record of positional success.
Nevertheless, the race to be the QB1 of the 2022 NFL Draft class is far from a runaway. The entire college football season is stretched out in front of us, like the back straight of a race track. Sooner than we know it, we’ll be on the home stretch with the finish in sight.
Oklahoma’s Rattler is just a little bit closer to the checkered flag than anyone else.
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Oliver Hodgkinson is an NFL Draft Analyst for Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter at @ojhodgkinson.