In a position known for its lack of depth, Pittsburgh Steelers TE Eric Ebron is a late-round ADP option for those who wait on the position. However, should you draft Ebron in 2021, or does his fantasy football outlook suggest potential struggles this season?
Eric Ebron’s fantasy outlook for 2021
We have all been there. You waited on tight end only to see the player you were hoping to fall to you sniped right before your pick. It’s the worst feeling. Now you look at the players available and sit in a pit of existential dread questioning all of your life choices that led you to this moment. Okay, maybe that’s a bit dramatic, but it drives home the point of how rough TE gets in fantasy football.
If faced with this crisis, perhaps take a look at Pittsburgh’s Ebron. While never one to wow the draft room, Ebron has been quietly consistent during his seven-year career. Particularly, since he left Detroit in 2018. Just over the last three seasons, Ebron has averaged 84 targets, 51 receptions, and 561 yards a season, along with 21 combined touchdowns (13 in 2018).
Even on a Steelers team with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and Chase Claypool, Ebron saw 91 targets (13.9% target share) last season while hauling in 51 receptions for 558 yards and 5 TDs as the TE14 (9.5ppg).
As the fourth or fifth option in the passing game, Ebron is not likely to be a TE1 in 2021. But he is a solid TE2 which is a far better fantasy outlook than his ADP would suggest.
Fantasy projection
As I touched on above, Ebron, while consistent, lacks upside due to the numerous other options on the Steelers’ offense. With Ebron, what you see is what you get to an extent. He is a player who will see between 5-6 targets a game and play on 70-85% of the offensive snaps.
When compared to other tight ends in his ADP range, that’s about as good as you could hope to find.
Let’s shoot in the middle and say Ebron plays in 16 games and sees 5.5 targets a game. That’s 88 targets in a year. Since 2017, only 18 tight ends have even hit this mark, with only eight doing it multiple times. Those players are Travis Kelce (4), Zach Ertz (3), Evan Engram (2), George Kittle (2), Austin Hooper (2), Darren Waller (2), Mark Andrews (2), and you guessed it, Ebron (2).
Since 2018, Ebron has played in 42 games and finished as a TE1 in 20 times. Even on a loaded offense, the opportunities are there for Ebron. Ben Roethlisberger has always enjoyed throwing to tight ends, going all the way back to the Heath Miller days.
I anticipate the addition of Najee Harris takes a few targets away from Ebron over the course of the year. Yet, I am not worried about Pat Freiermuth‘s involvement as a rookie. A likely fantasy projection for Ebron is 50-55 receptions, 575 yards, and 4 touchdowns. If you punted on the position earlier in your drafts, I would be more than happy with this for a later-round selection.
Eric Ebron’s fantasy ADP
If we examine Ebron using Sleeper’s ADP for 2021 redraft leagues, he is coming off the board as pick 239.5 in 1QB PPR leagues. Whereas, on NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Ebron has a 229.73 ADP.
Should you draft Ebron in 2021?
However you wish to slice it, Ebron is a value at his current ADP. Last season could have been better for him as he saw the eighth-most targets and the fourth-most looks inside the red zone. That’s the type of opportunity you do not find in this range of players.
Am I saying I want to rely on Ebron as my TE1 in fantasy? No. This season, my goal is to go TE early and secure an elite option. But that does not mean I would not feel comfortable if I have to start Ebron. Ideally, Ebron would be an excellent streaming option or part of a platoon of TEs where you can play the weekly matchup game.