The tight end position struggles for upside as a whole, so rookies like Pittsburgh Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth could produce some much-needed long-term value to the position. However, is Freiermuth someone who should be targeted as a late-round flier based on his ADP, or does his fantasy football outlook suggest looking for other options?
Pat Freiermuth’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Rookie tight ends — they’re so hot right now. Yes, I just used a Zoolander reference, but I felt it apropos given the climate we are in with the TE position. However, not every tight end is Kyle Pitts. That includes Freiermuth.
If not for Pitts, he would have been the clear TE1 of the class. But that doesn’t mean much for redraft. Since 2010, only Rob Gronkowski and Evan Engram have finished as TE1s (top 12) as rookies. I do not expect to see Freiermuth buck this trend either.
While I love the landing spot long-term, for 2021, he is at best the fifth option in the passing game, and this is when he even gets on the field. The Steelers have JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Najee Harris, and the guy above him on the depth chart, Eric Ebron.
It’s not like the Steelers run a lot of 12 personnel. In 2020, they played in their base personnel grouping (3WR/1TE/1RB) 75% of their offensive snaps (739). They deployed 12 personnel packages (2WR/1RB/2TE), only 12% (114). You would have to go back to 2017 for the last time the Steelers TEs saw at least a 20% target share.
With Ebron leading the position and coming off his best season since 2018, there is little room for Freiermuth in the Steelers’ offense in 2021. It would take some serious injury problems ahead of him for Freiermuth to have a considerable boost to his fantasy outlook.
Fantasy projection
Now, I do not want it to feel like he will not see the field. On the contrary, I believe he will. But whether or not it is to any extent that makes Freiermuth fantasy-relevant is a different story.
As I mentioned above, Ebron is coming off a fantastic season. Ever since his breakout in 2018, he has tried to recapture that same lightning in a bottle. In 2020, he pretty much did just that as he hauled in 56 receptions on 91 targets (13.9% target share) for 558 yards and 5 touchdowns as the TE14 (9.5 ppg).
The downside for Freiermuth is he has to contend with Ebron. Once he breaks through that barrier, he has to carve out a role amongst three 100-target receivers and an RB who should see 70 targets.
There is no denying how athletic Freiermuth is, as it was on full display at Penn State. He lined up all over from inline to the slot to the perimeter as the “X.” If he were drafted by a team that needed either TE or general passing game help, Freiermuth could be a sleeper in 2021 for fantasy. But he is only a dynasty stash for now.
A reasonable fantasy projection would be 15 receptions, 150 yards, and a score.
Pat Freiermuth’s fantasy ADP
If we examine Freiermuth using Sleeper’s ADP for 2021 redraft leagues, he is coming off the board as pick 226.5 in PPR 1QB and 191.7 in superflex formats. According to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Freiermuth has a 264.73 ADP.
Should you draft Freiermuth in 2021?
I’m sorry, but what on Earth is going on in Sleeper drafts? Is this just the dynasty effect trickling into redraft? There is zero reason Freiermuth should be drafted as the TE19. That’s ahead of Cole Kmet (TE21), Blake Jarwin (TE22), Adam Trautman (TE25), and even Ebron (TE24). As of right now, I would ignore this until ADP stabilizes and reevaluate it later this summer. I believe the NFC ADP to be more in line with his actual draft capital.
For as much as I believe in the talent of Freiermuth, do not draft him in 2021 for fantasy football. Even in deep 16-team leagues, there are better dart throws to take a shot on. Ones with more apparent paths to playing time. The stars would have to align for Freiermuth to even see above 25% of the snaps. Even then, he is unlikely to see more than three targets a game.
I would keep an eye on him if anything happens to Ebron as a potential waiver wire target. Still, his value and fantasy outlook would have to be evaluated on a week-by-week basis against other available tight end options for fantasy.