Due to a 2020 season that left fantasy football managers feeling disappointed, Joe Mixon has seen his ADP fall — in fact, many are avoiding the Cincinnati Bengals RB. But should managers continue to fade Mixon in 2021, or does his fantasy outlook now outweigh the risks?
Joe Mixon’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Maybe it is just me, but I can not believe that Mixon is entering his fifth season in the NFL. For those who have been waiting for Mixon to establish himself as an elite RB, it’s probably felt like dog years.
The talent is there, he just needs to put it together. Entering 2020, Mixon was fresh off the heels of back-to-back 1,100-yard rushing and 280-yard receiving seasons while scoring 8 or more touchdowns. Over this stretch, he was the RB10 (17.4 ppg) and RB13 (14.1 ppg) while averaging 0.79 fantasy points per touch. His 2,305 rushing yards were seventh-most over this time.
Then 2020 hit, and boy did it hit.
Mixon ended the season as the RB49 with 99.6 PPR points. But in points per game, he was the RB10 with 16.6 in his six games. He recorded 428 yards on 119 carries with 3 touchdowns, adding 21 receptions (26 targets) for 138 yards and another score.
When on the field, Mixon was an RB1 in fantasy, but that was only a portion of the season. In Week 6, Mixon suffered a foot injury that cost him the rest of the season. This only helped to further the stance that many believe Mixon is nothing more than an injury-prone running back. But are they right?
Are Mixon’s injury concerns overblown?
As for injuries prior to 2020, Mixon missed two games as a rookie in 2017 due to a concussion. In 2018, he missed two games after undergoing minor arthroscopic knee surgery. That’s four missed games in three seasons. That’s it. You can go up and down the list of running backs in fantasy and find a majority have missed just as many games (if not more).
We don’t even know for certain what Mixon’s foot injury was that kept him off the field, as the team never confirmed it. However, I can tell you the injury that impacted him the most — Joe Burrow’s ACL tear.
With Burrow out for the season, there was zero incentive to return Mixon to the field, and Bengals head coach Zac Taylor and the organization knew they were in the middle of a rebuild. Plus, they had 48 million reasons (dollars) to think of Mixon’s long-term value.
Should you feel confident in Mixon’s fantasy outlook in 2021?
I feel the hate has gone too far on Mixon. While he is not an RB1, he is just on the precipice as my RB13. Mixon is going to see as many touches as his body can handle. He could clear the 300-opportunity threshold in 2021, especially with pass-catching back Gio Bernard in Tampa Bay. We have always wanted to see Mixon involved in the passing game. According to offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, that is the plan.
The Bengals will have no shortage of offensive plays in 2021 and could be a fantasy scoring machine. The issue comes down to the same offensive line that folded much like Burrow’s knee. The addition of Riley Reiff should help as well as the change in coaching staff to Frank Pollack.
While not someone I want to trust as my RB1 fully, I believe Mixon’s fantasy outlook makes him one of the best RB2s in fantasy.
Joe Mixon’s fantasy projection for 2021
When I go through my projections, Mixon’s workload is off the charts. The Bengals have 140 vacated carries from the year prior with Bernard gone and 59 vacated targets (10.1%). Additionally, the RB2 on the Bengals’ depth chart (Samaje Perine) has not seen over 63 rushes since 2017.
Even if Mixon only plays in 14 games, he should be around 250 carries and over 1,050 yards in 2021. With the expected rise in targets, Mixon projects to see around 65 to 70 targets while adding 2 more touchdowns and 360 yards.
While I will never use Mixon and the word “safe” in the same sentence, I feel cautiously optimistic in his fantasy outlook for 2021 and think he could be a league winner for those weeks on the field.
Joe Mixon’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Mixon is currently being selected as the RB11 with an ADP of 16.8 in half PPR formats. In superflex leagues, given the priority of quarterbacks, he falls to 31.5. According to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Mixon is the RB13 with a 19.82 ADP. His ADP is similar on Fleaflicker at 19.3.
Should you consider drafting Mixon in 2021 for fantasy?
Based solely on talent and opportunity, I would absolutely say yes. But as we all know, fantasy is not that black and white. We live in a world of gray surrounded by caveats and ambiguity.
Roster construction will always be paramount when making decisions, and for Mixon, it will depend on what you did with your first-round draft pick. If you went with an RB like Ezekiel Elliott or Nick Chubb, who epitomize reliability, I wouldn’t hesitate with Mixon at his ADP.
Now, if you started your team with a wide receiver, I would see who else is available. If Najee Harris (or better yet, Austin Ekeler) were available, I would choose either running back over Mixon. Ekeler has multiple years of top-6 fantasy scoring; Harris is destined for nearly 300 touches as a rookie. I would choose the “safer” option, even though we all know any RB is one play away from the season being over (Christian McCaffrey).