After a solid rookie season, CeeDee Lamb’s fantasy football outlook for the 2021 season is promising with the return of his QB from injury. What can we expect from Lamb this season, and can he return value on his lofty ADP?
CeeDee Lamb’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Lamb stockpiled 433 yards in his first five games with Prescott before the quarterback’s season-ending injury. Lamb finished his first NFL season with 74 receptions, 935 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns. In addition, he accumulated 69 receptions and 877 receiving yards from the slot — the most by a rookie receiver since 2006. He also had the second-most receiving yards and receptions of 20 or more yards among all rookie receivers last season.
He averaged nearly 7 targets per game and finished as a WR2 or better in 44% of his games in PPR formats. The former Oklahoma Sooner closed the year out strong, finishing WR1 in two out of the last five regular-season games.
Lamb and Prescott have shown us a glimpse of what they can do when on the field together — Prescott had a passer rating of 127.4 when throwing to Lamb. This dynamic duo should pick up right where they left off in 2021.
One area of opportunity for Lamb is dropped passes. According to Pro Football Reference, Lamb tied RB Ezekiel Elliott for the team lead with 8 drops on the year.
The offensive line in Dallas
The Cowboys OL struggled to stay healthy in 2020. Right tackle La’el Collins (16 games missed), right guard Zack Martin (6), left tackle Tyron Smith (14), and left guard Cameron Erving (10) all missed significant time with injuries in 2020. Before the injury-riddled campaign, the Cowboys’ OL unit had been lauded in previous seasons for their run blocking and pass protection.
Multiple reports suggest that Collins, Martin, Smith, and Erving have not suffered any setbacks in their recovery. Therefore, the unit is well-positioned to reclaim its elite status in 2021.
All of the Cowboys’ WRs will get fed
Lamb will be competing with receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup for targets next season. The good news is that all three receivers should surpass 100 or more targets. The Cowboys will have to lean heavily on their offense — Dallas’ defense allowed the 10th most yards per game (386.4) last season. The Cowboys have made some offseason changes, but the trend is likely to continue in 2021.
Prescott averaged 50.2 pass attempts per game during the first four games of 2020, and he may have to do so again next year.
Lamb’s progression to alpha status
The perception from defensive coordinators last season was that Cooper was the Cowboys’ No. 1 receiver. As a result, he had to deal with most double coverages. Defensive attention could begin shifting Lamb’s direction in 2021 and something to be mindful of.
Many underestimate the growth a player has from their rookie to sophomore campaigns. Lamb will benefit from a full offseason program, and the Cowboys’ offense will stay the same in 2021. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore signed a three-year deal back in January to remain with the Cowboys.
Lamb will have a chance in Year 2 to expand his alignment in the formation this season, spending most of his time in the slot in 2020. The word on the street suggests Moore will move Lamb and the others receivers around in 2021.
There are few receivers in fantasy football with a higher ceiling than Lamb. He has Prescott back under center, a healthy offensive line, and other playmakers that help take away defensive attention from him. Lamb, Cooper, and Gallup could all exceed 1,000 receiving yards in 2021. The second-year player should thrive with the Cowboys and on your fantasy roster this season.
CeeDee Lamb’s fantasy projection
Lamb finished with nearly 214 PPR fantasy points last year. His rookie campaign was similar to that of Amari Cooper (216), A.J. Brown (218), A.J. Green (219), and Julio Jones (203.5). These receivers went on to average 17 PPR fantasy points per game in their second seasons.
Given the information we have around Lamb and looking at his fantasy outlook in Dallas, he projects for around 125 targets, 85 receptions, and a little over 1,000 receiving yards in 2021. Thus, he provides you with a mid-range WR2 floor and a low-end WR1 ceiling in PPR.
CeeDee Lamb’s ADP in fantasy drafts
Lamb is being drafted late in the third or early in the fourth round of fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker. He is going marginally earlier in pay-to-play fantasy formats, such as the National Fantasy Championship, where he has an ADP of 31.07 (WR11 overall). Furthermore, his ADP in PPR formats on Sleeper is 38.1.
Should you draft Lamb at this ADP in 2021?
Lamb is my preferred target among the Cowboys’ pass-catchers in fantasy football drafts. Especially with uncertainty surrounding the health of Cooper entering the year