Tony Pollard is viewed as one of the best backup running backs in the NFL, but he’s only played 26% of the offensive snaps in his two-year career. Pollard has four RB1 finishes on his statistical résumé while averaging a robust 0.84 fantasy points per opportunity (rushing attempts plus targets). Is Pollard a league winner if Ezekiel Elliott ever misses a significant number of games with an injury? Can he play his way into fantasy football relevance?
Tony Pollard’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The Dallas Cowboys only have 29 unaccounted rushing attempts entering this season. Thus, Elliott and Pollard will presumably dominate touches in the backfield once again. The second-year running back only played 32% of the offensive snaps last year and averaged nearly 9 opportunities per game.
Elliott has led the unit in snaps played, rushing attempts, and targets. However, he missed Week 15 against the San Francisco 49ers last season due to injury. This was Pollard’s opportunity to have the backfield to himself. He finished the game with 21 opportunities, 132 total yards, and 2 touchdowns. The 2018 fourth-rounder was the RB1 in PPR formats that week.
Pollard needs touches to prosper
Pollard would certainly be a league winner if Elliott were to miss multiple games due to injury. The sobering reality is that this is likely the only scenario that would allow Pollard to become fantasy-relevant.
Elliott signed a six-year, $90 million contract extension with the Cowboys in 2019. He received $50 million in guarantees, with $28 million fully guaranteed at signing. Since his rookie season in 2016, Elliott has averaged 24.4 opportunities per game. That ranks first among running backs over that span.
Elliott should continue to dominate touches in Dallas. It is the only way to justify his massive contract in the eyes of Dallas’ front office.
Nevertheless, the Cowboys appear to be open to finding creative ways to get Pollard involved in 2021. According to Jon Machota of The Athletic, Dallas is giving Pollard reps at wide receiver in practices. It will be interesting to see how this develops over time.
The Cowboys should continue to provide the running backs opportunities
The Cowboys have provided their running backs an average of 30 opportunities per game. This trend will presumably continue in 2021.
A healthy offensive line will also help the entire Cowboys’ offense. Dallas had right tackle La’el Collins (16 games missed), right guard Zack Martin (6), left tackle Tyron Smith (14), and left tackle Cameron Erving (10) miss multiple games with injuries last season. Dallas’ offensive line and running game are well-positioned to return to elite status in 2021.
Fantasy projection
Elliott and Pollard had an opportunity share split of 70/30 last year. Some are speculating that this split could be 60/40 in 2021, but I project another 70/30 split is more likely. The third-year back finished 2020 with 141 opportunities, 627 total yards, and 5 touchdowns.
Pollard projects to generate 130 opportunities, 600 total yards, and 4 touchdowns next season. Head coach Mike McCarthy had a history of using a running back by committee with the Packers. As such, Pollard owns the ability to be more of a high-end RB4.
Tony Pollard’s ADP in fantasy drafts
According to Fleaflicker’s ADP data, Pollard is available in the 10th or 11th round of 12-team drafts (124.8). The trend is also similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship where Pollard has an ADP of 117.32. His ADP in PPR formats on Sleeper is 121.9.
Should you draft Pollard at this ADP 2021?
Pollard is a solid value at his ADP and could greatly exceed expectations if Elliott should miss significant time. Much of his potential comes from being on one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Still, he’s not a player to overreach for. Others players at his ADP that could outperform Pollard are Jamaal Williams and Ja’Marr Chase.