Is Dallas Goedert a top tight end in fantasy football heading into the 2021 season? Many expect him to open the regular season as the Philadelphia Eagles’ No. 1 tight end assuming Zach Ertz is no longer on the team. Goedert is in a great position to finish as a top-four fantasy tight end if that is the case. So, what does Goedert’s fantasy outlook like for 2021, and what is his current ADP?
Dallas Goedert’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The Eagles have a young group of wide receivers. The combined career numbers for them are 181 receptions, 2,135 yards, and 14 touchdowns. The only Eagles player who could finish the 2021 season with more targets than Goedert is rookie wide receiver, DeVonta Smith.
Goedert also has to calibrate with starting quarterback Jalen Hurts, adapt to new head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen.
It’s important to analyze Goedert’s past before looking ahead to the future. He finished as a top-10 tight end in PPR formats in 2019 with eight TE1 performances in 15 games. Last season, Goedert was active in only 11 games with three TE1 outings. The 26-year-old tight end only averaged 6 targets per game over this time frame due to the presence of Ertz.
Goedert’s statistical body of work
Goedert has accumulated 1,131 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns over his last 26 games despite Ertz eating into his numbers. Goedert would have finished as a top-10 tight end once again last season if you extrapolated his statistical production. However, his success is impressive when you consider Ertz’s snaps played and target volume over the past two years. The veteran tight end played 84% of the offensive snaps and averaged 8 targets per game.
Ertz’s recent struggles are not exaggerated
Ertz struggled with injuries in 2020, and his efficiency declined. As a result, he averaged a dismal 4.7 fantasy points per target in 2020.
Goedert, on the other hand, has been ridiculously efficient. He’s averaged 7.55 fantasy points per target over the last two seasons. In addition, the Eagles’ heavy use of 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) has provided Goedert additional targets.
You may be wondering how he’s performed when Ertz has been out of the lineup or did not play a high number of snaps. There were five such games last season in which Ertz was inactive or played less than 50% of the offensive snaps. In them, Goedert averaged 6 targets, 53 receiving yards, and a robust 12 PPR fantasy points per game.
Frank Reich coaching tree
Sirianni also comes from the Frank Reich coaching tree. Of course, every offensive coach has a certain position group they indulge in more than others around the NFL. And Reich is passionate about featuring the tight end position.
All of these factors bode well for Goedert’s outlook in 2021, especially if Ertz finds himself on another team. Moreover, there are rumors that Goedert would still be named the starter even if Ertz remains on the roster. Now, you must be wondering other ways the offense could change this season with Hurts.
The Eagles’ offense in 2021
The good news is that Sirianni and Steichen have some experience with dual-threat quarterbacks like Hurts. According to reports, the offense will emphasize the screen game and set up the passing game via play-action.
Let’s briefly discuss the Eagles’ offensive line first. Philadelphia’s unit was banged up all last season. As a result, the unit’s quality of play was up and down. The Eagles selected center Landon Dickerson out of Alabama in the second round of this year’s NFL Draft. Many analysts viewed him as one of the top centers in the class.
If the veterans on Philadelphia’s offensive line stay healthy and perform at the level the coaching staff is accustomed to, the unit can be one of the top units in the NFL. This would also allow Goedert to be used more as a receiver instead of a blocker.
While under center, Hurts averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempt with Goedert on the field and 6.5 without him. It gets even better when you look at his projection.
Fantasy projection
Given the information we have surrounding Goedert, he projects for roughly 100 targets, 65 receptions, and a little over 800 receiving yards with 5 touchdowns in 2021. Goedert’s ceiling could be even higher when we have confirmation that Ertz has moved on. Thus, you should view Goedert as a low-end TE1 in PPR formats.
Dallas Goedert’s ADP in fantasy drafts
Goedert is readily available in the eighth round of fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaficker, with an ADP of 89. He goes a bit later in pay-to-play fantasy formats, such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Goedert has an ADP of 98.16. On Sleeper, however, his ADP in half-PPR formats is 79.7.
At any rate, Goedert’s ADP will skyrocket if the Eagles trade Ertz. With top-five upside, you should certainly draft him in 2021. He’s also being drafted behind T.J. Hockenson and Kyle Pitts, making him one of the top values right now at the tight end position.