Perhaps the quarterback with the highest ceiling, North Dakota State QB Trey Lance has one of the loftiest draft projections of any player. The question entering the 2021 NFL Draft is whether or not teams will look past the competition and solely focus on Lance’s jaw-dropping ability.
Trey Lance’s 2021 NFL Draft projection
One of the best pieces of advice is to not scout the uniform but the play on the field. Lance is special. Plain and simple. In 2019, he threw for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns on 287 attempts in his breakout year while completing 66.9% of his passes. Lance also got it done on the ground, rushing for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. What is just as, if not more impressive, is that Lance did not throw an interception.
There is not a throw on the field Lance can not make, as evidenced in his film. The velocity is effortless, and his athleticism is awe-inspiring. I think we forget that he was a freshman out there on the field making guys look silly.
Did Lance play against SEC talent? No, but he also didn’t play with that same level of skill around him, either. It’s also unfair to use the career path of former NDSU QB Carson Wentz against Lance, as the only thing these players have in common is their alma mater.
Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson seem locked into the first two picks. QB3 in the NFL Draft is seemingly wide open, with Justin Fields, Mac Jones, and Lance all speculated at one time or another.
Best landing spots for Lance
According to PFN’s Chief Draft Analyst and NFL Insider Tony Pauline, Lance is the QB4 and the No. 18 overall prospect and heads into the NFL Draft with a mid-first-round draft projection.
San Francisco 49ers
Are the 49ers in love with Jimmy Garoppolo? Clearly not, otherwise, they never would have sold the farm to trade for the third overall selection. With that said, Kyle Shanahan himself has said San Francisco is comfortable with Garoppolo as the QB for this year. We forget this was a team decimated by injuries and participated in the Super Bowl two years ago. I know 2020 seemed like it was a whole decade but still.
San Francisco is loaded with offensive talents such as Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. They also have arguably the best play-caller in the NFL. In terms of landing spots for Lance, this is nearly perfect. No question, he needs time to sit, and the 49ers are in no need to rush him out. There is also a reason all of these QBs go to the QB Collective’s camps to learn the game. Lance would get this day in and day out. Where Lawrence has the highest floor amongst incoming rookie QBs, I’d argue Lance has the highest ceiling.
Heading into the week of the draft, Pauline reported that the 49ers appear to have narrowed their choice to either Jones or Lance. Could Lance be an ideal candidate to sit behind Garoppolo for a season or two before stepping in as a high-upside QB for Shanahan and his system?
Atlanta Falcons
I think the NFL Draft starts here at pick No. 4. Do the Falcons stay put or trade back? Given Matt Ryan’s contract, they are most likely locked in for the next two years. Although, that might not be a bad thing, as Ryan is still playing well. It’s not his fault the defense can’t hold opponents under 35 points.
With Arthur Smith now running the show, the Falcons will use the 2021 season to evaluate all positions — even QB. Without a suitable option behind Ryan, Lance would be a compelling option for the organization. They saw what he could do as a first-year starter, and the sky is the limit once he gets more reps under his belt. Should he spend a year or even two as a backup, he would be the most dynamic player since Michael Vick to be under center for the Falcons.
Washington Football Team
While we all love Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington knows he is not the long-term answer. They are a team we expect to be heavily involved in the QB market come draft day. However, they’ll likely need to trade up to get in the range of Lance. Should he make it past the Falcons, Washington needs to be on the phone ASAP.
Washington is going to be a team no one wants to play in 2021. With a stifling defense, they brought in offensive weapons that should put up points as well. One of the factors to keep in mind is Ron Rivera. When he was with the Carolina Panthers, he did well with a particular dual-threat QB named Cam Newton.
Another overlooked aspect of Lance is he played in a primarily pro-style offense, working both under center and in the shotgun. That would alleviate any concerns regarding the QB-center exchange at the next level, which plague some rookies early in their careers.
Carolina Panthers
Although the Carolina Panthers traded for Sam Darnold, this does not take them out of the QB conversation. Sitting at pick No. 8, the Panthers are in the perfect spot to potentially snag Lance should he slip to him. The thought of pairing Lance with Matt Rhule and Joe Brady, one of the NFL up-and-coming stars, is tantalizing.
So long as Tom Brady is in Tampa Bay, the NFC South is their division. But how much longer will he stick around? Should 2021 end up being his final season, this division is wide open for the taking. The Panthers can run out Darnold in 2021. In the event he plays well, the Panthers can flip him for more than a pretty penny. Imagine this with me. Lance runs an RPO with Christian McCaffrey, then can tuck it and run or throw a missile to a streaking D.J. Moore. There is no stopping that, and together, Lance and Run CMC could put up highlights regularly.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are a wild card in this year’s draft — it seems watching Brady win another ring flipped a switch in Bill Belichick’s head. They made massive waves during free agency while trying to add playmakers to their offense. After re-signing Cam Newton, both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith quickly followed.
If there is anything Belichick hates more than sleeves on hoodies, it is turnovers and inconsistent play. That wouldn’t be an issue with Lance, who completed 67% of his passes and had an interception rate of 0.0%. Seriously he never threw an interception during his time in college. The “showcase” game was not an official game, and honestly, the whole thing was a mistake that we should all just forget about.
Newton would remain the starter for this season on his one-year deal with Lance waiting in the wings after spending the season under Josh McDaniel’s tutelage. New England is phenomenal at shifting their offense to fit the strengths of their players. With Lance, the options would be limitless.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.