With the calendar turning to July, we are so jazzed up that football (albeit pre-season) is next month we want to talk about actual games. So we are taking a break from our series reviewing the entire New England Patriots roster. After seeing a schedule review of the Miami Dolphins, we couldn’t help ourselves.
The Patriots are the heavy favorite to win the AFC East. The Tom Brady – Bill Belichick floor appears to be 10-6. In a crowded AFC, 12-4 is a good bet to be the minimum requirement to secure a bye, with 13-3 possibly being necessary.
For the sake of diving into the most crucial games, let’s make a few assumptions. To begin, we can give New England a 5-1 division record. This accounts for the atrocious level of competition within the AFC East, while also building in their annual loss in Miami.
Next, let’s work under the assumption they don’t slip up on the road to an inferior opponent. And lastly, until we know otherwise, let’s operate in a world where Tyreek Hill is not suspended.
With that said, here are the biggest schedule challenges for New England in 2019.
Week 1 – Pittsburgh at New England
Remember week 15 last year when the Patriots lost in Pittsburgh and everyone pronounced the New England dynasty over? Ah, memories.
The only reason this game even made the list is because the Steelers eked out that victory. Brady is 11-3 in his career against Pittsburgh, including the playoffs. The Patriots have just figured out the Steelers.
While this is narrative analysis, Pittsburgh is not going to walk into Foxborough and beat a team they historically cannot beat on the same night that team raises its sixth championship banner in front of its home crowd.
Week 8 – Cleveland at New England
If the league had any idea what it was doing, this would have been the home opener. No one is hyped up for the 15th edition of Patriots-Steelers matchup. We already know the outcome.
What the people want is the team that loaded up in an arms race this offseason taking on the Super Bowl champions that have been overloading the NFL for 20 years. That is the dynamic contrast that should be headlining opening weekend. Young and titillating vs the Evil Empire.
Instead, we have to wait until Halloween to watch Baker Mayfield grab his crotch and shout in Brady’s direction with a pup-off-the-leash utter defiance for appreciating the presence of who is across the field on the opposite sideline.
We have to wait until Halloween to get Odell Beckham Jr. vs Stephon Gilmore. The potential of Josh Gordon son-ing his old team. Belichick smirking along the way while thinking “it’s cute you thought you were good now.”
The reality is Cleveland brought in an asinine amount of new talent this offseason. Some assumed strengths hit on New England’s weaknesses. With the growth of Mayfield and all the weapons now at his disposal, it does not bode well that the Patriots have no pass rush.
Nick Chubb looks like a monster in the making and New England sports a below-average run defense. The Browns now field pass-rushing bookends in Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon, and New England has a very serious question mark at left tackle.
The counter, of course, is the cohesion of the Patriots roster against the fact that the built-in-an-off-season super team always disappoints. It takes time to make the pieces fit. Some coaches aren’t capable of making the pieces fit. This isn’t to say Freddie Kitchens isn’t capable, it’s just that we don’t know whether or not he is.
Week 9 – New England at Baltimore
One of our earlier assumptions is that the Patriots will not slip up against an inferior opponent on the road. Given the talent exodus that the Ravens experienced this offseason, it’s fair to deem them inferior to New England.
The statement at the outset was really directed at their trips to Washington and Cincinnati. Baltimore is still a competent team. And just as how the Patriots know how to beat the Steelers, the Ravens know how to hang with New England.
Or maybe they don’t, anymore. This is a completely different roster than the one that fought out those wars with the Patriots. There are voids left unfilled and a huge question mark at quarterback. The last time these two teams played, the Patriots stormed out to a 16-0 lead before coasting to a 30-23 victory.
Yet Baltimore can always be counted on to be a well-coached team. Their secondary is insane and New England’s receivers figure to struggle against average secondaries let alone elite units. For years the Patriots have struggled to cover running backs in the passing game and the Ravens just imported Mark Ingram.
Alas, we return to narrative analysis. Do you really see a run-every-play Lamar Jackson offense outscoring the Belichick brain trust?
Week 11 – New England at Philadelphia
The Super Bowl LII rematch. This is the toughest non-conference road game New England has in 2019. The competition for that title isn’t exactly stiff, as the only other non-conference road game the team has is the aforementioned date with Washington.
The Eagles ended up doing the Patriots a huge solid last season when they beat the Texans late in the year, clearing the way for New England to steal the two seed. In the span of 21 months the Patriots could go from hating Philadelphia for besting them in the Super Bowl, to loving them for handing them the two seed which launched a sixth Super Bowl run, to hating them again come November 2019 for putting the Patriots behind the eight ball for a first-round bye with two huge conference games looming.
Week 13 – New England at Houston
This is the toughest conference road game New England has in 2019. Similar to Brady’s dominance against the Steelers, Mr. Brady flat out owns the Texans. For his career, Brady is 9-1 against Houston, including the playoffs. His last loss against the Texans came in 2009, so a decade ago.
But same as the Ravens, a lot has changed in Houston. This isn’t your Matt Schaub Texans anymore. The problem is, we don’t know what they are. At times this crew looks like legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and at other times they’re getting embarrassed at the hands of the Colts during a home playoff game worse than The Situation trying to give a roast.
Week 14 – Kansas City at New England
The 2018 AFC Championship rematch. Thus, a rematch of a game in where the Patriots lead 14-0 at half though it felt like it should have been at least 21-0, the Chiefs stormed back to take the lead, Julian Edelman somehow defied the laws of physics and didn’t actually touch a muffed punt, New England regained the lead thanks to a false start that wiped out a game-losing interception, saw their defense blow it in the final two minutes for the ten millionth time in a row, won the overtime coin flip and then marched downfield to put the game away.
Couple that with the 43-40 shoutout in Foxborough during the regular season last year, recent history tells us to expect fireworks when these two get together. Again, we’re operating under an assumption that Hill plays. In such a world, it may be difficult for Brady and his diminished weaponry to keep up with Patrick Mahomes et al.
This game will surely have massive playoff seeding ramifications. The winner could have a clear path to the one seed. If the Chiefs lose they could end up not even winning their division.
Immediately following Super Bowl LIII, the Chiefs opened as the favorite to win Super Bowl LIV. Guess who was tied for second?
NFL Super Bowl LIV (2020) updated
KC 6/1
LAR, NO, NE 8/1
LAC, Chi, Pit 14/1
Min, GB, Dal 16/1
Phi, Bal, Ind, Cle, Hou 20/1
Sea 30/1
Atl, Jax, NYG 40/1
SF 50/1
Car, Ten, Den 60/1
TB, NYJ 80/1
Wsh, Det, Buf, Cin, Oak, Ari 100/1
Mia 300/1— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) February 4, 2019
In Sum
It may be a “homer-iffic” outlook, but New England should go 9-1 in the 10 games not listed. The difference between a 9-7 season and 14-2 season is here in these matchups. One would figure the worst-case scenario is 2-4, giving the Patriots an 11-5 floor for 2019. That was good enough for the two seed and a Super Bowl in 2018.
Jonathan Rosenberg is a writer for PFN covering the New England Patriots. You can find him @frosted_takes on Twitter.