Breakout candidates are generally hot topics entering every fantasy football season. Which players are going to take that next step from mediocre to elite? For wide receivers, a player’s third year in the league is typically the estimated expectancy for them to “break out.” For Los Angeles Chargers’ WR Mike Williams that time is now. In fact, it could be argued that no other player is expected to take a bigger leap heading into the 2019 fantasy football season than Williams.
Williams’ rise thus far
Williams’ NFL career got off to a rough start as a rookie in 2017. First, Williams was forced to miss the majority of the Chargers’ offseason program plus the team’s first five games of the season with a mild herniated disk. Then in Week 12, Williams was forced to leave the game against the Dallas Cowboys with a knee injury. He would go on to sit out the following week as well.
Williams played in the team’s final four games but was essentially a non-factor, combining just 2 receptions for 11 yards. He would finish the year with a total of 11 receptions on 23 targets for 95 yards and zero touchdowns. Not exactly what the Chargers were looking for when they drafted him with the seventh overall selection.
Things went much better for Williams in 2018 though. For starters, he remained healthy and played in every eligible regular and postseason game of the season. More importantly to fantasy owners, Williams found the end zone in his sophomore year – a lot.
Despite just 43 receptions on 66 targets, Williams tallied 10 touchdowns and 664 receiving yards last season, while also adding a rushing TD. Williams became just the second player in history to score 10+ touchdowns on less than 70 targets since targets became a stat in 1992. His incredible TD rate (23.2%) led him to finish as a WR2 in half-point PPR fantasy leagues.
Part of his success came from the fact that he was more confident in his second year. In addition, injuries to the Chargers’ offense also opened up opportunities for Williams.
Injuries played a role
Arguably, injuries have been the key prevention from the Chargers making their Super Bowl run. Yes, injuries are a part of the game, but it seems that the Chargers often have at least one key player go down at the beginning of the season, among others. Last year, that player was tight end Hunter Henry, who returned for the NFC Divisional Round against the New England Patriots but missed all of the games prior to that with a torn ACL.
Keenan Allen has his own injury history as well. Allen has played in every game the last two seasons but missed considerable time beforehand. He played in just nine games total in 2015 and 2016. His history with injuries played a large part in the Chargers decision to draft Williams with their first-round pick in 2017. Although he appeared in every game last season, Allen was forced to leave early in a pivotal game against a division rival.
In Week 15 against the Kansas City Chiefs, Allen left with a hip injury after attempting what would have been an incredible TD reception in the first half. After his departure, Mike Williams stepped up and had the best game of his career to date. Williams would finish the game with 3 total TDs (one rush), 7 receptions for 76 yards. He was also the recipient of the two-point conversion pass from quarterback Philip Rivers to win the game for the Chargers in the final seconds.
With both Allen and Henry healthy, is there room for Williams to break out and build upon last year’s success?
Hunter Henry poses the biggest threat to Williams’ fantasy production
Tyrell Williams left 65 targets on the table when he elected to sign with the Oakland Raiders this offseason. The consensus is that Mike will be the lead recipient to get the majority of those left over. Henry’s return indicates that he too will see a good share of them and take the biggest chunk of targets away from Williams. More importantly, Henry poses the biggest threat to Williams’ looks inside the red zone, which could have a negative impact on his fantasy production.
Last year, with Henry out, Rivers heavily leaned on Williams inside the 20, and for good reason. Williams caught 7 receptions last year inside the red zone. Six of them resulted in touchdowns, plus Williams’ lone rushing score came from 19 yards out.
From where I stand, both Williams and Henry are terrific red zone targets for Rivers. Williams has shown that he can make tough catches, particularly in jump ball scenarios. In this well-fueled offense, there is plenty of fantasy production to go around. While Henry’s production could take away some from Williams, it’s not enough to get worried or draw down his value.
2019 Outlook
There are a number of mouths to feed in the Chargers’ offense. Keenan Allen is the clear-cut number one receiver and Philip Rivers leading target. Melvin Gordon will obviously get a number of touches in his own right and see targets out of the backfield. Austin Ekeler will play into that as well. As mentioned, Hunter Henry is in line for a bounce-back year after missing 2018. Even with all of these things being true, Mike Williams is poised to have a tremendous 2019 season.
It’s very possible that Williams could see around 90-100 targets this coming season. This would certainly increase his reception total by a significant margin. Assuming Williams sees this level of attention, he could flirt with the possibility of finishing with a 1,000-yard season. Touchdowns are difficult to project, but it’s very possible that he concludes with double-digit scores for the second consecutive year.
Williams’ current ADP has him as the 24th wide receiver coming off the board. Overall, he’s going anywhere between the fifth and sixth rounds. This is a respectable spot to take Williams, who is widely viewed as a back-end WR2 with upside. Consistency from week-to-week may be a concern, but that is typically the case for any wide receiver not considered a number one option in the offense. Williams is certain to have some games where he booms and will be a popular DFS play in favorable matchups.
Some people believe that Williams will outproduce Allen in 2019. I’m not in agreement with that theory assuming everyone remains healthy. I still, however, predict that Williams will have a very productive season and will please his fantasy owners. I project that Williams will finish the season with 900 yards, 65 receptions, and 9 touchdowns. That’s a well-respected stat line for a WR2 in fantasy football. Fantasy owners can feel comfortable drafting him at his current ADP.
Eric Frosbutter is a fantasy football writer and editor for PFN. You can follow him @efrosbutter on Twitter.