Entering the final week of the 2024 NFL season, Black Monday is right around the corner. Every year, there are inevitably a number of head coaches and general managers who are fired immediately after the season comes to an end. This year, there are a number of coaches who enter this final weekend with a scorching hot seat.
Let’s examine some of the coaches who are feeling the heat right now and whether replacing them would be the right move.
Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Doug Pederson is 22-28 in his three seasons with the Jacksonville Jaguars, including a 4-12 record this season.
In this era of football, if you can’t make your opponent uncomfortable, you’re in trouble. The Jaguars have ranked 29th in sack rate during Pederson’s tenure, a statistic that has been tied to struggles over that stretch. The bottom four teams in this regard since 2022:
- 29. Jaguars
- 30. Panthers
- 31. Falcons
- 32. Bears
Winning in the NFL is difficult, so when you have the chance to do so, you have to take advantage. The tail ends of the league are extreme, but the meat of the bell curve is as tightly packed as ever, and that results in a spike when it comes to games decided by a single possession.
Percentage of games decided by one-score
2022-24: 55.7%
2017-21: 50.3%
Throughout his Jaguars tenure, Pederson is 10-19 in these contests, a 34.5% win percentage that ranks 29th. Of course, these coin-flip games can go either way for a variety of reasons, but the same teams have a way of winning them, and their coaches are viewed as true assets. Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin, and Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell have all won at least two-thirds of such games over the past three seasons.
Keep in mind, Jaguars owner Shad Khan described this as “the best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars ever” after making some key offseason additions (Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, Arik Armstead, etc.) and signing Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million deal that made him one of the NFL’s highest-paid quarterbacks.
After a strong start, things have soured quickly for Pederson in Jacksonville (just like they did in Philadelphia) and the Jaguars aren’t showing signs of improvement.
Brian Daboll, New York Giants
Brian Daboll is 18-31-1 in three seasons with the New York Giants. A surprising first season led to a 9-7-1 record, playoff appearance, and Wild Card round win over the Vikings. He was also the 2022 AP NFL Coach of the Year.
However, this season, the Giants are 3-13, and his seat is certainly warm.
Generally speaking, the best teams in the NFL excel with the pre-game script and find success early on. This season, 10 of the top-11 teams in first-quarter point differential entered Week 18 as postseason teams or still alive in the playoff hunt. During Daboll’s time with the Giants, New York was the worst team during the first 15 minutes, and it wasn’t close (outscored 254-100; no other team had a first-quarter point differential worse than -84 over that stretch).
There are a lot of factors in play for a stat like that, but the head coach is ultimately responsible for his team’s readiness each week, and the Giants posted a ‘D-’ grade in our Offense+ tracking system if you isolate first quarters since 2022.
In this quarterback-driven league, step one is building an environment that gives the signal caller a chance, and that wasn’t the case with Daboll at the controls of this franchise. Over the past three seasons, no team allowed pressure with more regularity than the G-men, which resulted in the second-highest sack rate. Roster construction and scheming are two areas where Daboll was expected to help this organization emerge from a tough decade, but it simply hasn’t happened.
Also, since 2022, the Giants rank 30th in divisional win percentage (26.5%, 4-12-1). The strength of the NFC East is certainly a factor in that mark, but with three straight failures to cover the spread in such games, they’ve pretty clearly failed to live up to expectations in these important spots. Success in these spots is non-negotiable for teams looking to get a postseason invite. Not only do these games help decide the divisional standings, but they also reflect the coaching matchups, as these teams are familiar with one another and require a level of attention to detail to succeed.
It was a magical first season in 2022 for Daboll and the Giants but absolutely nothing has gone right since. Daboll, an offensive guy, failed to develop Daniel Jones or any other QB that has played for the Giants, didn’t properly use Saquon Barkley, and the offense has been among the worst in the league the last two seasons. With a top-five pick, it may be time for a complete reset in East Rutherford. With that said, Daboll likely won’t be unemployed for long.
Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders
Antonio Pierce is 9-16 in parts of two seasons with the Las Vegas Raiders. He took over as interim coach in 2023 when Josh McDaniels was fired. This season, Las Vegas is 4-12.
Turning red zone trips into seven points and limiting your opponent’s ability to do so often swings outcomes, and in that regard, the Raiders have struggled in a major way under Pierce. During his two seasons, Las Vegas ranked 29th in red zone offense and defense, a combination that caps the team’s ceiling. Limited talent can result in a low red zone trip rate. Still, coaching is often responsible for scheming up ways to convert the opportunities when they present themselves, an area that Pierce needs to iron out with time.
The Raiders have ranked 27th in third-down conversion rate during Pierce’s tenure. Part of those struggles can be attributed to a lack of upside at the quarterback position. Still, their ranking (27th) in third-and-short situations speaks to a lack of offensive creativity that prevents much in the way of offensive potential.
What went right for Pierce and his staff? Well, over his two seasons, Las Vegas has committed just 0.7 penalties per game, tied for the lowest in the league. That’s a nice stat to have in the pocket of any head coach, but the fact that he took over the most penalized team in the two seasons before his arrival (7.0) makes it that much more impressive.
With a 5-4 finish as interim head coach, Pierce was brought back by popular demand. A terrible 2024 season has not yielded the same confidence from the players or front office, with many players gone or wanting out. It’s possible his days in Vegas are numbered.
Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots
Jerod Mayo is 3-13 in his first season with the New England Patriots.
The Patriots are allowing pressure at the third-highest rate this season. New England was slightly above average in this respect in 2023 prior to Mayo, a ranking that needed to be sustained with rookie Drake Maye under center rather than tanking. Of course, some of that blame falls on Maye, but the head coach is responsible for developing a plan, and the plan to keep the rookie quarterback comfortable failed.
A rookie quarterback can skew some of the offensive numbers, but scheming is magnified in tight windows, and the Patriots failed that test at every turn in 2024. This season, New England ranked 29th in third down conversion rate and 30th in red zone efficiency.
The elite offenses are going to produce, but the ranking of the middle tier will be separated on the margins. Even in the scope of the teams working in a new franchise QB, the Patriots’ inability to finish off drives was alarming:
Red Zone TD% (Ranks)
- Washington Commanders: 61.8% (6th)
- Chicago Bears: 61.1% (7th)
- Denver Broncos: 60.8% (8th)
- New England Patriots: 47.7% (30th)
It’s worth noting that Mayo put Maye in a position to develop. There were ups and downs throughout Maye’s rookie season, but we saw enough of that potential flash to believe that this team has its signal-caller of the future.
While Mayo struggled in 2024, he’s a first-time head coach, so growing pains were somewhat expected. It’s possible the Patriots will give him more time to prove himself.
Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys
Mike McCarthy is 49-34 in five seasons with the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys went 12-5 in McCarthy’s second, third, and fourth seasons but earned no more than one playoff win in those three appearances.
This year, Dallas is 7-9 after failing to live up to preseason expectations.
It’s hard enough to get opposing offenses off the field in today’s game and even harder when you give away yardage. This season, only three teams have committed more penalties than the Cowboys. If this was a one-year issue, it could be overlooked, but that’s not the case. Dallas was whistled for the eighth-fewest penalties per game in the three seasons prior to McCarthy’s arrival, but during his five seasons, they averaged a league-high 6.7 infractions per game.
Twice during the McCarthy era, Dallas posted a bottom-10 Defense+ grade from our custom metric, and the inability to force teams to settle has been the culprit this season (27th in red zone defensive efficiency). If you look over the past two seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens are both top-four red zone defenses and both rank among the top-four in win percentage. This league rewards offense in a major way, thus putting an extreme level of importance on a team’s ability to hold their opponent to field goal attempts, something that’s been a clear weakness during McCarthy’s final season.
This is a results-driven business, especially when playing for a marquee franchise. The Cowboys finished with a losing record just once in nine seasons prior to bringing in McCarthy, but they have had two such seasons in five years since making the move. The three 12-win seasons in the middle of those disappointing seasons are what this franchise expects, making the valleys more notable than the peaks.
While Jerry Jones has made some positive comments about McCarthy recently, it remains to be seen if he will be back next season. It’s worth noting that McCarthy’s contract is expiring, so he won’t have to be fired — Dallas could simply choose not to renew his deal.
Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts
Shane Steichen is 16-17 in two seasons as the Indianapolis Colts head coach, including 7-9 this season. Indianapolis didn’t live up to preseason expectations, and recently, there has been a lot of talk about the poor culture and lack of accountability under Steichen.
The giveaway and takeaway math hasn’t been great throughout Steichen’s tenure in Indianapolis, and that caps his appeal. From 2022-2024, the Colts ranked 25th in turnover margin (85 turnovers committed, ahead of only the Cleveland Browns), making sustaining success near impossible. Over the past three seasons, the Colts have won more than two consecutive games just once, something that isn’t surprising given this glaring flaw.
Like it or not, coaches and quarterbacks are tied to one another, and Anthony Richardson is well behind where he was expected to be at this point. Injuries have certainly played into that, but we just haven’t seen the signs of growth that you’d hope for, and the falls at the feet of the head coach.
Richardson’s 60.5 grade ranks in the 10th percentile of measured seasons per our QB+ metric (for reference, 2022 Davis Mills and pre-breakout Sam Darnold in 2020 are two seasons grading in this range).
Joe Flacco stabilized this offense for stretches, and that speaks to the integrity of the scheming, but development is as big a part of the job as anything and a failure like this is damning.
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
Kevin Stefanski is 40-42 in five seasons with the Cleveland Browns, including two postseason appearances. Stefanski was named the AP NFL Coach of the Year following the 2020 and 2023 seasons. However, the Browns are 3-13 this season.
Well-coached teams typically find a way to move the chains on offense and hold teams out of the end zone on defense — two major flaws during the Stefanski era.
Third Down Conversion Rates
- 2020: 44.9%
- 2021: 39.2%
- 2022: 38.1%
- 2023: 31.6%
- 2024: 29.3%
That’s difficult to overlook, especially from a coach whose resume suggests that he is an offensive mind. Those last two seasons were two of the seven worst showings league-wide during his time in Cleveland.
Their offense has been unable to stay on the field, and their defense has been unable to make a stand when needed most. Since 2020, the Browns rank 29th in red zone defense, allowing a touchdown on 62.2% of opponent drives that breach their 20-yard line (NFL average: 57.7%).
The strong defensive scoring metrics are nice, but for a team to take that next step and have postseason success, the need to force field goal attempts when pressed has proven critical (the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, and Minnesota Vikings have all overachieved this year based on preseason expectations and they all rank in the 80th percentile in red zone defense).
It’s unclear how much blame Stefanski deserves for the Browns’ horrendous 2024 season. He did take a franchise that was dead and out and got them to two postseason appearances and prior to 2024, his worst record was 7-10. Having your franchise QB, who the organization planned everything around, play 19 games over three seasons has not helped, so it’s possible he’ll keep his job.
Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 9-7 and will capture the NFC South title for a fourth straight year with a win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.
However, Bowles is now 26-24 in three seasons as Bucs head coach, and his defense has struggled mightily this season. The team’s success in 2024 has largely been due to Bucs OC Liam Coen’s terrific offense. As a result, Coen is receiving plenty of head-coaching buzz.
The Buccaneers lost to the Cooper Rush-led Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, a game that could have made Week 18 meaningless. They allowed 7.9 yards per attempt to a compromised passing game and couldn’t get out of their own way (six penalties, 100% conversion rate allowed in the red zone).
If the Bucs lose in Week 18 to the depleted Saints (who will be missing Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, Taysom Hill, Kendre Miller, and others), that will be a disaster that causes Bowles’ seat to get very hot.
If the Bucs win the NFC South once again, Bowles’ job is likely safe. It helps that he was the defensive coordinator for Tampa Bay from 2019-2021, including the 2020 Super Bowl championship season.
But with his defense taking a huge step back and Coen looking like an offensive mastermind, would GM Jason Licht fire Bowles and promote Coen to head coach?