There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is it more prominent than in NFL prop bets. With literally thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for the 1 p.m. ET slate of games (plus one for the 9:30 am London game!).
Top NFL prop bets to wager in Week 4
All prop bets are one unit unless otherwise specified. One unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.).
It’s also important to remember that lines are constantly shifting due to action and the latest news. I will always be transparent about three aspects of each pick: What line I bet it at, the line at the time I wrote this, and at what price I’d no longer be interested.
[bet-promo id=”160605″ ]Last week’s plays went 5-3, winning 2.15 units. That puts us at +1.19 units on the season. After two middling weeks to start the season, Week 3 was very kind to us, including hitting my first two-unit play of the season. Let’s keep the momentum rolling in Week 4.
Adam Thielen under 51.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM)
This was the first bet I made this week. Adam Thielen has gone over this number twice, but only barely in Week 2 (52 yards). And he got there in total garbage time.
In Week 1, Thielen didn’t come close, and in Week 3, it was just an ideal spot for Thielen against a weak Lions pass defense. He still only had 61 receiving yards.
Thielen’s target share sits at just 17.4%. Justin Jefferson is coming off back-to-back down games. Look for Kirk Cousins to focus on getting him going. The Saints allow just 152.3 yards per game to wide receivers. I think Jefferson gets back on track, and Thielen is an afterthought this week.
I bet this at -115 on BetMGM. Currently, the best line available is 49.5 (-115) again on BetMGM. I still like it at this number and would be willing to bet it as low as 47.5.
J.K. Dobbins under 38.5 rushing yards (-115 on BetMGM)
In his first game back from his torn everything, J.K. Dobbins was eased into action. He played 45% of the snaps, carrying the ball only seven times, and amassed just 23 yards.
The Ravens have a 59% neutral-game-script pass rate. They really can’t move the ball on the ground other than with Lamar Jackson.
The Bills are a pass-funnel defense, allowing just 47 rushing yards per game to running backs, the second-fewest in the league. This game is just going to be an aerial assault. Dobbins may have more receiving yards than rushing yards this week.
I bet this at -115 on BetMGM. Currently, the best line available is 36.5 (-110) on DraftKings and BetMGM. I would still bet it at this number, but anything lower than 35.5 and I’m out.
Dameon Pierce over 59.5 rushing yards (-115 on DraftKings)
Last week, we hit with Dameon Pierce over this number, and we’re going back to it once more. In Week 3, Pierce had 20 carries for 80 yards. It was the second consecutive week Pierce surpassed 60 rushing yards. Pierce has played over 60% of the snaps the past two weeks and has clearly become the lead back.
The Chargers, meanwhile, are allowing 4.6 yards per carry and just allowed James Robinson to rush for 100 yards on 17 carries. I like Pierce to once again turn 15+ carries into 60+ yards.
I bet this at -115 on DraftKings. Currently, the best line available is 60.5 (-113) on FanDuel. I still like it at that number, but if you don’t see anything lower than 62.5, I might consider passing.
Jalen Hurts under 0.5 interceptions (+115 on DraftKings)
I don’t believe Jalen Hurts will throw an interception in half of his games. This is probably an outcome we see 40-45% of the time. Yet, it’s priced at +115. Math dictates this is a +EV play.
Hurts has only thrown one interception this season, and it was a bit of a fluke against the Vikings. The Eagles are touchdown favorites against the Jaguars. Hurts won’t need to throw a ton, and he won’t need to force any bad passes. This is not the same Hurts that’s been a bit reckless with the football.
I bet this at +115 on DraftKings. That remains the best line. It’s obviously not going to move off 0.5, but the reason I like this is the price. At anything worse than even money, the value is no longer there.
Jahan Dotson over 33.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM) | 2 units
We hit last week on my first two-unit play of the season with Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards over. We’re back with another two-unit play this week. Simply put, Jahan Dotson’s line doesn’t make sense.
Dotson had 40 receiving yards in Week 1 and 59 in Week 2. He only managed 10 in Week 3, but Carson Wentz played awful and it was just a terrible game all around for the Commanders. Yet, Dotson still saw eight targets.
While Dotson may be the clear WR3 on the Commanders, he’s fifth in the NFL in routes run. He can top this number on just two or three receptions. It’s too low. Smash the over.
I bet this at -115 on BetMGM. Inexplicably, this line has actually moved against me. You can now get it at 32.5 -115 on Caesars. If this goes down another two yards, I will probably bet it again.
Rashaad Penny under 1.5 receptions (-129 on Caesars)
Rashaad Penny has a 64% snap share on the season. That’s actually 10th-highest amongst running backs. Yet, he’s a nonfactor in the passing game. Penny’s seen just a 4% target share, which has amounted to four total targets on the season. Penny had two receptions in Week 1 and then one in his next two games combined.
The juice on this under should be much higher than it is. Penny goes under 1.5 receptions far more than he doesn’t. In 40 career games, Penny has caught at least two passes just eight times.
I bet this at -129 on Caesars. That line remains available, and you don’t need to worry about this number moving off of 1.5. The only concern will be how heavily it is juiced. Part of the reason I liked this is the reasonable -129 price. If you have to pay -145 or more, I would probably pass.
Elijah Moore over 42.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM)
I was initially going to just avoid all things Jets this week due to the uncertainty surrounding how Zach Wilson’s return would impact this offense. However, I just can’t stay away from Elijah Moore here.
Moore leads all wide receivers in routes run. His yardage totals over the first three weeks are 49, 41, and 49 receiving yards, respectively. So, he’s already topped this number twice.
I think we’re getting a squeaky-wheel game for Moore. The Steelers allow the ninth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. This is a great spot for Moore to have a mini-breakout.
I bet this at -115 on BetMGM. Currently, you can get my number on FanDuel at -120 or you can take it at 43.5 (-110) on BetMGM or DraftKings. I don’t anticipate too much movement on this, but if it gets to 45.5, I wouldn’t be happy about it. I would probably still bet it, though.