The Philadelphia Eagles enter Super Bowl 57 as a slight favorite over the Kansas City Chiefs, but this will be a matchup of the NFL’s two best teams. Both clubs can point to specific advantages, but the Eagles may have a few more than the Chiefs. Here’s how Philadelphia can secure its second Lombardi Trophy in six years.
5 Reasons the Philadelphia Eagles Will Win Super Bowl 57
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. the Chiefs’ Rookie Cornerbacks
In his first season in an Eagles uniform, A.J. Brown posted new career highs in targets, receptions, and yards while scoring 11 touchdowns and earning a second-team All-Pro nod. His presence also helped unlock second-year wide receiver DeVonta Smith, who managed a 95-1,196-7 line.
Philadelphia’s passing offense was the seventh-most efficient in the NFL in 2022. Kansas City was in the middle of the pack in pass defense, and they will be heavily relying on at least two rookie cornerbacks in the Super Bowl.
Although veteran L’Jarius Sneed (concussion) has been cleared to play, the Chiefs will need significant snaps from first-year players Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, while Joshua Williams could see more action if Sneed is on a pitch count.
Brown and Smith should be able to create chunk yardage against Kansas City’s young corners, and it won’t be a surprise if the Chiefs’ secondary has a few coverage busts on Sunday. Having had two more weeks off to allow his injured right shoulder to heal, Jalen Hurts could now be in a better position to take advantage of KC’s cornerback depth chart.
The Eagles Can Run Against the Chiefs
Philadelphia will be able to run the ball against Kansas City because they can run the ball against anyone. The Eagles generated 0.072 expected points added per rush this season, more than double the production of the next-best rushing team.
Hurts’ shoulder recovery could allow Philadelphia more freedom to use its quarterback as a designed runner, although he really hasn’t had any trouble since returning in Week 18. Hurts posted 29 total runs over the Eagles’ past three games.
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Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones could present a problem, but Philadelphia has the best offensive line in football.
Their interior of center Jason Kelce and guards Landon Dickerson and Isaac Seumalo should be able to get some movement up front even with Jones blocking their path, while tackles Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson can create space on the outside.
Philadelphia’s Pass Rush Will Attack Kansas City’s Offensive Tackles
The Eagles posted 70 sacks in 2022, the most in the league and the third-most in NFL history. They didn’t merely get lucky with clean-up or coverage sacks, either — Philadelphia finished second in pressure rate (only a tenth of a percentage point behind the Dallas Cowboys) and first in pass-rush win rate, which measures how often rushers beat their blocks in 2.5 seconds or fewer.
Four Eagles — Brandon Graham, Haason Reddick, Javon Hargrave, and Josh Sweat — ranked inside the top 30 in win rate, per PFF. No other team had four players in the top 30, and only the Miami Dolphins had three.
The Chiefs have an excellent offensive line, but they’re far stronger along the interior than at tackle. Philadelphia’s pass-rushing group should be able to get after Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie and force a hobbled Patrick Mahomes to move.
The Eagles’ Secondary Can Shut Down the Chiefs’ Wide Receivers
Eagles general manager Howie Roseman acquired Darius Slay for third- and fifth-round picks, C.J. Gardner-Johnson for fifth- and sixth-rounders, and James Bradberry for just $7.25 million. Those three players, plus safety Marcus Epps and slot cornerback Avonte Maddox, comprise a secondary that ranked first in pass defense DVOA by a wide margin.
The Chiefs still posted the best passing offense in football even after trading Tyreek Hill, but that’s more indicative of Mahomes and Travis Kelce’s talent than a positive comment about Kansas City’s receiving depth chart.
Andy Reid can always scheme his receivers open, but JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore could have trouble in one-on-one matchups with Slay and Bradberry, both of whom allowed fewer than seven yards per target.
Slowing Kelce down will always present a problem. But if the Eagles can rely on their elite corners to stop KC’s receivers, they can devote more bodies to the league’s best tight end.
Nick Sirianni Is a Better Game Manager Than Andy Reid
Reid is the best head coach in the NFL and one of the best leaders in league history, but he’s always had issues with game and clock management. On the other side of the field, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni and his staff have mastered the game’s administrative intricacies.
In 2022, Philadelphia was the sixth-best team at attempting fourth-down conversions when the data indicated they should. Kansas City was the fourth-worst. In the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs kicked several field goals deep in Cincinnati Bengals territory when they probably would have been better off trying for a first down.
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Those decisions didn’t end up costing them against the Bengals, but the Chiefs could have a more difficult time against the Eagles, who relentlessly exploit every advantage. Sirianni rarely, if ever, wastes timeouts to get to the correct play call or punts in obvious “go” situations.
Kansas City is so productive offensively that the Reid vs. Sirianni management battle might not even matter. But in what is projected as a tight game, these decisions could have a significant impact, and the team that adds even a few extra points of win probability could come out on top.