Optimism is everywhere at this time of the NFL calendar. No regular-season games have been played, and every team is 0-0.
For some clubs, those rose-colored glasses are actually warranted. Today, we’re identifying five NFL defenses on track to make a significant improvement during the 2024 season.
All of these defenses struggled in some way, shape, or form in 2023 but now appear poised to make a leap. As we looked around the league, we searched for defenses that finished in the bottom half of FTN’s defensive DVOA last year but are realistic candidates to rank in the top 10 in 2024.
Let’s kick it off with an NFC East franchise trying to rebound after a late-season collapse.
Which NFL Defenses Will Improve in 2024?
Philadelphia Eagles
- Play-caller: DC Vic Fangio
- New additions: EDGE Bryce Huff, LB Devin White, LB Zack Baun, CB Quinyon Mitchell, CB Cooper DeJean, S C.J. Gardner-Johnson
- 2023 stats: 30th in scoring (25.2 ppg), 29th in EPA per play, 29th in DVOA
What do you do when your defense collapses down the stretch? Hire one of the best defensive coordinators in NFL history.
Fangio has years of DC experience, and his system has become the NFL meta. For the most part, we know what his Eagles scheme will look like: a 3-4 front that doesn’t blitz and relies on pass rushers to get home, a two-high shell with the ability to morph after the snap, and a willingness to prevent explosive plays while accepting underneath completions.
Philadelphia couldn’t stop offenses under 2023 play-callers Sean Desai and Matt Patricia. The Eagles’ D didn’t dictate anything, either. They ranked 28th in TruMedia‘s havoc rate, generating a sack, interception, tackle for loss, forced fumble, or PBU on 16% of their plays.
Fangio should have the pieces in Philadelphia, where general manager Howie Roseman has quickly turned over the club’s roster while getting younger. Jalen Carter was in the Defensive Rookie of the Year conversation in 2023. Jordan Davis is going into his third season, while Huff is three years younger than the pass rusher he’s replacing (Haason Reddick).
Although the Eagles still have a few aging pieces in their secondary, they used their first two 2024 draft picks on Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. Mitchell will start in the slot from Day 1, but Fangio hopes to deploy him on the outside eventually.
Assuming Fangio can foster better relationships with his new players than he did as the Miami Dolphins’ DC last season, the Eagles could return to the dominant defensive unit they were in 2022.
Seattle Seahawks
- Play-caller: HC Mike Macdonald
- New additions: DT Byron Murphy II, LB Tyrel Dodson, LB Jerome Baker, S Rayshawn Jenkins
- 2023 stats: 25th in scoring (23.6 ppg), 30th in EPA per play, 28th in DVOA
This is a bet on coaching talent. While the Seahawks will bring back many of the same pieces along their defensive line and in the secondary, Macdonald’s presence as head coach and coordinator can potentially turn Seattle into a defensive powerhouse.
Under Macdonald’s direction, Baltimore’s defense ranked first in points per game, points per drive, yards per play, DVOA, and sacks.
Macdonald pulled all the right levers as the Ravens’ DC while running the league’s most modern unit, consistently disguising and varying his coverage looks. According to TruMedia, Baltimore didn’t play any single coverage on more than 30% of its defensive snaps in 2023, while Macdonald ran Cover 1, Cover 3, Quarters, and Cover 6 at rates of at least 15%.
He deployed simulated pressures at the NFL’s fourth-highest rate (27.1%), constantly forcing opposing offensive lines to waste blockers. When the Ravens played the San Francisco 49ers, he sent blitzes to harass Brock Purdy. Against the Miami Dolphins’ quick passing attack, Macdonald eschewed the pass rush and put more defenders in coverage.
Which new head coach will have the most success in 2024? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/90LpcGKmTb
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) August 17, 2024
During the 2024 head coaching search cycle, one rival decision-maker called Macdonald a “defensive Sean McVay.” The Los Angeles Rams head coach heaped praise on Macdonald after the latter joined the NFC West, telling The Athletic’s Robert Mays that facing the Ravens “felt like you were playing 13 players” because Baltimore had “such a well-coordinated and a well-executed defense.”
The Seahawks’ defense ranked near the bottom of the league in nearly every metric. They struggled equally against the pass and the run, allowed more first downs (380) than any team in the NFL, and gave up a score on 40.4% of opposing drives, the fifth-worst rate in the league.
Despite Seattle’s poor results, the club has a lot of building blocks in place. Pass rushers like Murphy, Dre’Mont Jones, Boye Mafe, and Uchenna Nwosu (recovering from a torn pectoral) give the Seahawks an intriguing front.
In the secondary, 2023 first-rounder Devon Witherspoon might be Macdonald’s new version of Hamilton, while the ex-Baltimore DC will know how to deploy fellow defensive backs Riq Woolen and Julian Love.
Green Bay Packers
- Play-caller: DC Jeff Hafley
- New additions: S Xavier McKinney, S Javon Bullard, LB Edgerrin Cooper
- 2023 stats: 10th in scoring (20.6 ppg), 23rd in EPA per play, 27th in DVOA
The Packers finally ended the Joe Barry era in January, firing their defensive coordinator after three seasons at the helm. With a young, impactful offensive core already in place, Green Bay had to make a change on defense after ranking bottom third in scoring, yards per play, and efficiency in 2023.
Hafley, Boston College’s head coach from 2020-23, should institute several noticeable changes from Day 1 as the Packers’ DC.
Hafley’s defense will be far more aggressive than Barry’s, who prefers to limit explosive plays. It might be as much of a mentality shift as a schematic change. Hafley, a longtime defensive backs coach, should help the Packers create more ball production after they tied for 31st in interception rate (1.3%) last season.
Green Bay should benefit from better injury luck in 2024. Last season, Green Bay’s defense ranked 25th in adjusted games lost to injury. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander only played in seven games in 2023. Darnell Savage Jr. had a stint on injured reserve; Eric Stokes had two.
Now healthy, those defensive backs (plus new starters McKinney and Bullard) will solidify the back end of the Packers’ defense. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s potentially dominant front seven features Kenny Clark, Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, 2023 first-rounder Lukas Van Ness, and breakout candidate Karl Brooks.
Los Angeles Rams
- Play-caller: DC Chris Shula
- New additions: EDGE Jared Verse, DT Braden Fiske, CB Darious Williams, CB Tre’Davious White, S Kam Curl
- 2023 stats: 19th in scoring (22.2 ppg), 20th in EPA per play, 22nd in DVOA
How do you replace an all-time legend like Aaron Donald? There’s no realistic answer to that question, but Shula — promoted to Rams DC after Raheem Morris took the Atlanta Falcons’ job — has been tasked with figuring it out.
Shula, McVay’s teammate at Miami (OH), has been on L.A.’s staff since 2017 and has worked in various roles under coordinators like Wade Phillips, Brandon Staley, and Morris.
“Obviously, we’re going to have to step up as a group,” Shula said in May. “We made a big point to Kobie Turner that we don’t expect him to be an Aaron Donald — because he really is one of one. We knew when he was in the game how offenses were going to protect against us. Now, it’s a little bit more of a guessing game.”
Turner, who finished second among rookie DTs in pressures and pass-rush win rate in 2023, is part of the puzzle. So are fellow 2023 draft pick Byron Young and 2024 choices Verse and Fiske, the latter of whom were teammates at Florida State.
While the Rams are going with young up front, their secondary is loaded with experienced new additions. Williams, White, and Curl were all value signings in free agency and should boost Los Angeles’ defensive backfield.
We mentioned above that the Packers dealt with poor injury luck in 2023, but the Rams were the exact opposite. No teams lost fewer games to injury on defense than Los Angeles last season. Shula may have to guard against regression on the injury front, but the Rams have long prioritized and invested in sports science and injury prevention.
Chicago Bears
- Play-caller: HC Matt Eberflus
- New additions: EDGE Darrell Taylor, EDGE Austin Booker, S Kevin Byard
- 2023 stats: 20th in scoring (22.3 ppg), 16th in EPA per play, 17th in DVOA
The Bears just sneak onto our list via our self-defined parameters. Chicago was just outside the top half of the NFL in defensive DVOA, but they finished eighth in weighted DVOA, which reduces the importance of early-season games.
That makes sense — the Bears improved down the stretch, holding six of their final opponents to 20 points or fewer. Chicago got better after acquiring pass rusher Montez Sweat in October, but he wasn’t the only standout on the Bears’ defense.
Young defensive backs Tyrique Stevenson and Jaquan Brisker progressed as the season went along and played their best at the end of the year. Slot cornerback Kyler Gordon returned after an early-season IR stint and produced. High-profile free agent addition Tremaine Edmunds, consistently out of place at the beginning of 2023, looked more like himself by November.
The #Bears ranked dead last in pressure rate (27.4%) when NOT blitzing in 2023.
Why Friday's trade for Darrell Taylor makes sense for Chicago:https://t.co/3VmVvTMtdF
— Dallas Robinson (@DallasDRobinson) August 23, 2024
If one of two of those youthful defensive backs takes another step forward in 2024, Chicago’s defense could be for real. We haven’t even mentioned linebacker T.J. Edwards (who should’ve been in the second-team All-Pro mix last year) or defensive tackle Gervon Dexter, the Bears’ 2023 second-round choice who dominated throughout training camp.
Finding a tag-team partner for Sweat on the EDGE was Chicago’s last remaining agenda item on defense. General manager Ryan Poles checked that box this week by acquiring Darrell Taylor, who posted 21.6 sacks for the Seattle Seahawks over the last three years.