The San Francisco 49ers face the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs — we’ll preview the clash and offer an NFL betting prediction. The Niners eked out a win against the Dallas Cowboys despite the best efforts of Jimmy Garoppolo, who was playing through an excruciating thumb injury. But that’s not all the quarterback was battling. He also sprained his shoulder during that first half. It will be nearly zero degrees at Lambeau Field on Sunday night, and wind chills will likely be below zero.
That’s not great for the joints. But can the rest of the 49ers’ offense overcome Garoppolo’s injuries, and can the defense make Aaron Rodgers uncomfortable enough to make this a low-scoring affair?
San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers Preview
The San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, and Rodgers are linked by the Niners’ decision to draft Alex Smith first overall in the 2005 NFL Draft. Rodgers fell to the 24th pick, and the rest, as they say, is history.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]And we never spoke of it again. There are far more critical factors in this game’s outcome than a decision made 16 years ago.
49ers needed Nick Bosa and Fred Warner healthy vs. Packers
The San Francisco front was perfectly okay with the losses of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner against Dallas, but there is far less certainty against the Packers. Green Bay has gotten healthy at the right time. All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is back on the field for the first time this season. Jaire Alexander hasn’t played since the Steelers game in Week 4 but could return on Saturday. Additionally, standout rookie center Josh Myers returned in Week 18 from an injury.
Warner appears to be a full go after tweaking his ankle versus Dallas. He’ll be a commodity against AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones. Just a few short months ago, it would have been outright disrespectful to name Dillon first, but he toted the rock 45 times to Jones’ 38 from Weeks 14-17. Jones is still the more dynamic runner and receiver, but Dillon’s bruising style is an outstanding complement.
The 49ers’ secondary doesn’t do much to confuse opposing QBs, and they don’t run much other than spot-drop zone concepts. Accordingly, the 49ers will need Bosa on Saturday night. San Francisco also doesn’t blitz often, so getting home with four rushers is imperative.
They did just that against Dallas, accumulating 31 pressures between their defenders. Charles Omenihu had the biggest day, but Arden Key, D.J. Jones, Samson Ebukam, and Arik Armstead all flourished against the Cowboys. The 49ers will need a similarly freaky day from the defensive line to beat the Packers.
Because Bosa is one of the best defensive ends in the NFL, he requires special attention, which limits what opposing offensive lines can do up front. They must provide help against him. He cleared the NFL’s independent concussion protocol on Friday, just in time to play on Saturday night against Green Bay.
The Packers’ defense must play disciplined defensive football
To say that Green Bay struggles against the run would be an understatement. They ranked 30th in both rushing expected points added (EPA) against and success rate. Even when looking at Weeks 9-18, things are grim, as they ranked 28th in EPA and 31st in success rate.
And unfortunately for them, their issues come on the outside, exactly where the 49ers prefer to take advantage. San Francisco doesn’t necessarily attack outside consistently, but they’re particularly adept at taking advantage of a team’s aggression against them. Kenny Clark is an outstanding interior defender, and De’Vondre Campbell received his first All-Pro bid in 2021.
Outside of those two and occasionally Adrian Amos, there isn’t anybody in that defensive front that one can look at and feel confident about against this 49ers run game. Like Dallas, Green Bay wins on the line through their ability to penetrate. At times, their edge defenders will freelance and be thoroughly washed out of plays, inviting ball carriers far and wide into the C gaps.
Observations from the Week 3 matchup
Watching the first game between the two for a preview of what the Niners’ rushing attack looks like against the Packers is foolish. Kyle Juszczyk carried the ball 5 times in that game, but he only amassed 3 carries the rest of the season combined. Trey Sermon carried the ball 10 times for the 49ers in Week 3. He hasn’t touched the ball since Week 11.
Deebo Samuel also hadn’t found his role in the rushing attack. They handed him the ball twice, but never from in the backfield, where he has become such a mismatch for San Francisco offensively. Elijah Mitchell didn’t play against Green Bay in Week 3 at all. Additionally, the 49ers’ receiving weapons are renowned for their collective ability to break tackles. Samuel is the best in the NFL after the catch, but he’s far from their only weapon. The 49ers had three players rank inside the top 50 in yards after the catch per reception.
Packers must tackle
George Kittle ranked 42nd, averaging 6.3 yards a pop after the catch. Brandon Aiyuk is no slouch, either. He ranked 44th, averaging 6.1 yards after each catch. The 49ers have dense, powerful athletes who are challenging to bring down on first contact and have the juice to make a defender miss.
Tackling will be a crucial element in the game on Sunday night. And tackling becomes less desirable when the temperature drops. Everything hurts just a little bit more.
The good news for Green Bay is no matter which stat website you peruse, the Packers have been one of the most consistent tackling teams in the league in 2021.
Garoppolo must protect the ball
Whenever there’s a conversation surrounding the Niners, it almost always ends with, “but James Richard Garoppolo is their QB.”
There’s certainly some validity to that. If there were an MVP for Dallas in the Wild Card round, it was almost Garoppolo. He tried to give the ball away multiple times and did not look physically capable of doing what he had against the Rams just a week prior, leading San Francisco to a game-tying drive in regulation in a must-win environment.
And that’s the frustrating part of having Garoppolo as your favorite team’s quarterback. There’s an inherent inconsistency within his game. It’s why Kyle Shanahan does almost everything within his power to hide him in the offense. Only Ben Roethlisberger and Tua Tagovailoa had a higher rate of turnover-worthy plays for the season.
49ers vs. Packers prediction
- Spread: Packers -5.5 (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Packers -235, 49ers + 190
- Total: 47
The Packers were the most consistent team in the NFL this season. They finished 14-3 and third in the league in turnover differential. The Packers can thank their league-best 13 giveaways for that. Rodgers is arguably the greatest quarterback ever because of his innate ability to toe the line between conservative play and aggression. He doesn’t give the ball away, but he still attacks.
And now, the Packers are arguably the healthiest they’ve been all season. And with Rodgers’ future a complete mystery, I can’t imagine the Packers going out after just one playoff game this season. Ultimately, it’ll be the 49ers’ inability to finish drives in the red zone that’ll cost them most.
49ers vs. Packers Prediction: Packers 24, 49ers 20