If you’re looking for San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL DFS picks in Week 14, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
49ers Considerations
The buzz of Christian McCaffrey’s arrival in the Bay has worn off, at least just a bit. As incredible as he is — unquestionably one of the best running backs in the game — durability issues have marred his standing since early in the 2020 season.
The 49ers handed him 25 touches last week, likely due to the loss of Jimmy Garoppolo. The team could not afford to put the game entirely in seventh-round rookie Brock Purdy’s hands. So McCaffrey carried a heavy load after being limited to 14-18 touches in his previous three outings.
This is key to understanding how we might shape the San Francisco side of this DFS slate. Purdy will face a flawed-yet-battle-tested Buccaneers defense. Last weekend, he targeted his backfield on 35% of his passes. Still fighting for a playoff spot despite an 8-4 record, this team cannot afford to ease up on their star RB.
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In fact, we might wonder whether we can trust any other high-priced Niners in this game. Assuming a relatively conservative offensive scheme, the fairly expensive Brandon Aiyuk probably needs to score to be useful.
The same goes for George Kittle, who might be used more as a blocker than a playmaker to help keep Tampa Bay’s vaunted pass rush (ninth-most QB hits and fourth-most sacks) in check.
Buccaneers Considerations
In his record-breaking 44th fourth-quarter comeback on Monday, Tom Brady needed 54 pass attempts, tied for the third most among these 44 games. Meanwhile, his 5.2 yards per attempt were tied for the third fewest among those games.
Facing one of the league’s toughest defenses, Brady and the Bucs are in a uniquely challenging spot — and a fascinating one for DFS competitors. Because Brady’s on pace to break Matthew Stafford’s single-season record for pass attempts. Barring something unforeseen, he’s going to keep throwing.
Whether that translates into DFS success is another question. I recommended him on Monday as the Captain of that DFS lineup, and he enjoyed his best production since Week 5.
Today is different, facing a San Francisco defense that’s seventh in QB hits and sixth in sacks. Brady’s depleted offensive line won’t help. I’m anticipating a lot of dump-offs to his RB duo. And his high volume should adequately feed one or two receivers. But in what could be a low-scoring affair, Brady might not eclipse 13 DFS points, making him a sharp fade.
Top DFS Picks for 49ers vs. Buccaneers
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($12,300)
I like making calculated contrarian decisions. Deebo Samuel has been questionable or much of the week. But his versatility on the ground and through the air makes him an ideal captain, as I expect Purdy to lean on him heavily. Despite his muted numbers compared to last year, Samuel remains one of the game’s most dynamic offensive playmakers.
Flex: RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($10,600)
As stated above, it’s inconceivable that McCaffrey takes a backseat to anyone in this contest. He’ll get as much as his body can handle. A stout Tampa Bay run defense might cap him at 18 DFS points. But his floor is as high as any player in this game.
Flex: WR Mike Evans, Buccaneers ($9,800)
Rebound, rebound, rebound. Go big or go home. Et cetera.
Is Evans struggling? Absolutely. He hasn’t cracked 10.4 DFS points since Week 8. Is the problem solvable? Absolutely. Chris Godwin struggled for most of the year (coming back from last year’s season-ending injury) before breaking out in two of his last three games.
MORE: Buccaneers vs. 49ers Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Week 14
There’s an ebb and flow to Tampa Bay WR production in 2022. We’re not used to seeing it. The past two years, we might see two or three receivers dominate in the same game.
This week I’m banking on Evans to reassert himself in an offense that needs him to get back on track.
Flex: RB Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers ($7,000)
A reasonable price for a catch-friendly and goal-line-friendly RB. Great floor. Modest ceiling. But seemingly a safe bet for 9+ points.
Flex: RB Rachaad White, Buccaneers ($5,600)
Employed the same strategy for my Week 13 Monday Night Football DFS lineup, hedging on Fournette and Rachaad White with the expectation they’d be collectively productive. It worked out. It can work again, even if we have to lower those expectations in a tougher matchup.
Flex: TE Cade Otton, Buccaneers ($4,600)
I committed to including Cade Otton in this slate before Monday’s game. The rookie has more talented than Cameron Brate and has better chemistry with Brady. With Brate hobbled, Otton is a no-brainer flier at this affordable price.
Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.