The San Francisco 49ers are once again hampered by injuries and look to be having one tough Super Bowl hangover. With that being said, they are still well within the playoff race at 5-6. They will need Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan to pull off some magic against the Buffalo Bills if they want a shot at redemption.
The Buffalo Bills have the odds-on favorite for the MVP (+150 odds on DraftKings) in Josh Allen, who has led this team to a 9-2 start and handed Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs their only loss this season. A well-rounded offense and defense make the Bills a tough team to handle, especially when it starts getting colder and Allen opts to run through your defenders.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Bills -6 - Moneyline
Bills (-250); 49ers (+205) - Over/Under
44.5 total points - Game Time
Sunday, Dec. 1, 8:20 p.m. ET - Location
Highmark Stadium
49ers vs. Bills Preview and Prediction
While both teams entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations, the 49ers’ hopefulness has quickly dwindled. PFN’s Playoff Projections currently give them a 20% chance of making the playoffs, a 9.5% chance to win the division, and only a 1.5% chance to win the Super Bowl. Other than disappointing play, much of this has been from the usual rash of injuries that San Francisco seemingly faces every season.
The injury list could very easily be mistaken for a Pro Bowl roster with players like Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Hargrave, Talanoa Hufanga, and Deommodore Lenoir all unavailable for this Sunday night matchup. Among these players alone, that is 5,471 total snaps from the 2023 season missing. The absence of these stars significantly impacts both their offensive and defensive performance alarmingly.
Offensively, the 49ers rank 11th in EPA (expected points added) per game. Without Williams, the offense drops to 16th in EPA, per TruMedia. The effectiveness of a team predictably drops when a top-five offensive tackle in the league isn’t playing.
Defensively, the 49ers also take a major hit without their stud pass rusher. With Bosa on the field, their defense ranks 16th in EPA, ninth in pressure rate, and 19th in quick pressure rate (quicker than 2.5 seconds).
Without him, they rank 30th in defensive EPA, 30th in pressure rate, and 23rd in quick pressure rate. Against an offense that thrives under pressure like Buffalo (fourth in EPA under pressure), Bosa’s absence (among others) could be dangerous for their playoff hopes.
Buffalo enters this matchup in a much healthier and impressive state. The offense as a whole ranks fourth in EPA per game, and Allen himself ranks second in EPA per play among quarterbacks with over 110 attempts. Arguably one of his best traits is sack avoidance. Despite an offensive line ranking 14th in pressures allowed and his time to throw ranking 17th, the Bills have the lowest sack percentage in the league.
On the defensive side, the Bills don’t boast elite metrics across the board but do have certain players that can wreck a game. This is especially pertinent in a matchup where Williams is out and the rest of the offensive line hasn’t played very well. Ben Baldwin used PFF to evaluate offensive lines in true pass-set situations. The Niner guards rank 14th and the center dead last in these situations.
Pass block grades of offensive linemen in true pass sets only
This is a Drake Maye tweet pic.twitter.com/JdHiyZsY7a
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 19, 2024
While Buffalo only ranks 23rd and 14th in pressure and quick pressure rate, their defensive line features three players at the top of the league in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate. Greg Rousseau ranks 13th among edge defenders in pass rush win rate. Even worse, this interior offensive line will have to go against DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver, who rank 17th and 18th among defensive tackles in pass rush win rate.
Overall, Allen is playing like an MVP and the Bills have a key matchup advantage against a depleted 49ers roster. While nothing is certain in the NFL and trap games come from the most confusing and surprising places, I feel confident in the Bills for this game.
My pick: Bills ML (-250), Bills -6 (-110)