These were two of the top three NFC teams in terms of record a season ago, but this is a new year, and the Vikings are struggling. This isn’t expected to be an overly competitive game, and while that’s a bummer for viewing purposes, it can pave the way for some nice same game parlay picks. Our one-off 49ers vs. Vikings MNF picks content is available on the PFN Betting Podcast — here’s how I’m stringing options together to end Week 7!
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
- Spread
49ers -7 - Moneyline
49ers -305, Vikings +245 - Total
44
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: When was the last time the 49ers lost consecutive games?
Are there moving pieces in this game when it comes to health? Yes, but I’ve constructed this game in such a way that, regardless of who plays, I’ll be comfortable with putting my hard-earned dollar on it.
Let’s first deal with an injury we know: Justin Jefferson. The All-Pro receiver is on injured reserve, and the Vikings will not have his services until November at the earliest. That obviously has a massive impact on how the Vikings offense functions, and while we are dealing with small sample sizes, here are Kirk Cousins’ splits in games this season that Jefferson starts and finishes vs. games he does not:
aDOT:
- With full Jefferson: 8.06 yards
- Without full Jefferson: 6.97
Yards per pass:
- With full Jefferson: 7.73 yards
- Without full Jefferson: 5.96
For those who struggle with math, that’s a 13.5% decline in average depth of target and 22.9% in yards per attempt. Like I said, it’s a small sample, but those numbers track with what you’d assume would happen — Jefferson thrusts receivers into an uncomfortable role and puts more looks on the plate of RB/TEs.
Those are low-risk, low-reward throws, and I’m banking on that continuing against a 49ers team that is top 10 in pressure rate despite a bottom-five blitz rate. How many passes will Cousins throw?
MORE: NFL Bets and Expert Picks Week 7
You might be inclined to jack up the attempt count to game script but be careful. The Vikings, even with Jefferson for over two-thirds of their games, rank dead last in time of possession, while the 49ers rank fourth for a second consecutive season.
The limited number of possessions and low-risk throws have me trending toward prime-time Cousins playing a clean, albeit uninspiring, game.
On the other side, we have a buying opportunity on Brock Purdy after he was picked apart by the best defense in the league. Know what the Vikings aren’t? An elite defense. They rank bottom five in completion percentage and red-zone touchdown rate, on top of being only an average unit at creating pressure despite a high blitz rate.
We can all agree that Purdy isn’t fleet of foot, right? Well, prior to the Week 6 dud in Cleveland, he had a rushing score or multiple passing touchdowns in every one of his regular-season starts. If we are to believe that the rushing scores are random, I’m happy to bet against them, and that means multiple passing touchdowns.
The final thing to consider — and this could be slightly impacted by the health of the 49er skill guys, but it is still worth noting — is that through six weeks, the Vikings drop passes at a top-10 rate, while the 49ers are bottom 10 in drop rate. If one of these QBs is going to get help from his friends, it’s Purdy.
- Trivia Answer: The 49ers last lost consecutive games in Weeks 6-7 last season, with the second loss coming on Oct. 23!
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Kirk Cousins under 232.5 passing yards, Kirk Cousins under 0.5 interceptions, Brock Purdy over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Odds: +675 (at DraftKings)