The San Francisco 49ers are coming off their first loss of the season, and it required injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel and a missed 41-yard field goal against the best defense in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns. On Sunday morning, Jay Glazer reported that McCaffrey is expected to play, but neither Samuel or Williams are going to be active. Even without two of their best players, can the 49ers bounce back against the Minnesota Vikings?
Although Brock Purdy struggled when McCaffrey and Samuel both left the game last week, almost every quarterback has had a very difficult time with the Browns defense this season. Even though this Vikings defense has been outperforming their very low expectations so far this season, Purdy should have a much easier time this week.
Minnesota is just 2-4 and will be without Justin Jefferson for quite some time, but they’re better than their record indicates. Of all teams with two or fewer wins, the Vikings have the second-best DVOA at 16th behind the Chargers at 14th, but the next best team is the Packers at 21st.
Usually, when a team is two games below .500, a lot of the blame goes to their quarterback, but Kirk Cousins is on pace to throw for more touchdowns and have a higher QBR than last season when the Vikings went 13-4. We all know about prime-time Cousins, however, and he will be going against a 49ers defense that is one of the best in the NFL.
When the 49ers vs. Vikings odds came out last Sunday night, San Francisco opened as seven-point favorites. Since then, the spread has stayed at around a touchdown. Let’s check out the 49ers vs. Vikings predictions, player prop bets, and more from the PFN betting team.
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.
- Spread
49ers -6.5 - Moneyline
49ers -305, Vikings +245 - Over/Under
43 - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
U.S. Bank Stadium - How To Watch
ABC, ESPN, ESPN+
Soppe: We can all agree that Purdy isn’t fleet of foot, right? Well, before the Week 6 dud in Cleveland, he had a rushing score or multiple passing touchdowns in every one of his regular-season starts. If we are to believe that the rushing scores are random, I’m happy to bet against them, and that means multiple passing touchdowns.
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The final thing to consider — and this could be slightly impacted by the health of the 49er skill guys, but it is still worth noting — through six weeks, the Vikings drop passes at a top-10 rate (highest drop rate, bad) while the 49ers are bottom-10 in drop rate. If one of these QBs is going to get help from his friends, it’s Purdy.
Pick: Brock Purdy over 1.5 touchdown passes (-110 at DraftKings)
Soppe: For those who struggle with math, that’s a 13.5% decline in average depth of target and 22.9% in yards per attempt. As I said, it’s a small sample, but those numbers track with what you’d assume would happen — Jefferson thrusts receivers into an uncomfortable role and puts more looks on the plate of RB/TEs.
Those are low-risk, low-reward throws, and I’m banking on that continuing against a 49ers team that is top 10 in pressure rate despite a bottom-five blitz rate. How many passes will Cousins throw?
You might be inclined to jack up the attempt count to game script, but be careful. The Vikings, even with Justin Jefferson for over two-thirds of their games, rank dead last in time of possession, while the 49ers rank fourth for a second consecutive season.
The limited number of possessions and low-risk throws have me trending toward prime-time Cousins playing a clean, albeit uninspiring, game.
Picks: Kirk Cousins under 232.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings), Cousins under 0.5 interceptions (-105 at DraftKings)
Katz: Brandon Aiyuk has played five games this season. He’s recorded at least 76 receiving yards in three of them.
Tonight, we have a great spot against a Vikings defense that struggles to defend wide receivers. They’ve allowed the second most fantasy points to outside receivers. While this isn’t a fantasy pick, that is indicative of their struggles.
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Aiyuk primarily plays the outside. A whopping 80% of the Vikings receiving yards allowed has gone to the WR position, by far the most in the league.
With Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel banged up, this should be a heavy Aiyuk game.
Pick: Brandon Aiyuk over 65.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: In the four Vikings losses this season, Alexander Mattison has averaged 11.8 carries per game, and this number is inflated by the Chargers loss in which he had 20 rushing attempts.
The point spread for that game was a pick, while this week, they’re getting a touchdown at home. Regardless of their injuries, I don’t think the 49ers should have issues winning this one, which leads me to believe a negative game script is in play for Mattison.
Pick: Alexander Mattison under 12.5 rush attempts (-114 at FanDuel)