The San Francisco 49ers will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 13. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every 49ers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Brandon Allen, QB
It took Brandon Allen 29 passes to threaten 200 yards through the air last week in Lambeau. He was able to spread out his targets, but when throwing to teammates not named George Kittle, Allen was able to complete just 55% of his passes, a rate that just isn’t going to cut it.
If Allen draws another start, you don’t need to worry about it when it comes to the QB position. His connection with Kittle was strong enough to keep the veteran TE ranked top seven regardless of who is under center.
The value of Deebo Samuel Sr. would be the one to watch, but I’m ranking things as if Brock Purdy will be back this week and get San Francisco’s offense back on track with its season hanging in the balance.
Brock Purdy, QB
Brock Purdy (right shoulder) sat out last week against the Packers. Advanced testing showed no structural damage, leading to cautious optimism that he’ll return to the lineup this week. Should that be the case, I think there’s a possibility Purdy gives us a borderline QB1 performance.
The Bills excel at shutting down opponents from big perimeter plays, but this 49ers offense is happy to focus on the shorter passing game and let their athletes work in space.
Purdy has completed 71.9% of his passes since Christian McCaffrey returned to the field, and I don’t think that’s an accident. He has a quartet of top-six finishes this season, thanks in part to four rushing scores over his past four games.
No, he’s not Lamar Jackson. He’s not even Daniel Jones when it comes to athleticism, but Purdy is mobile enough to raise his fantasy floor, which I think will help this week against a patient Buffalo defense.
If we get a clean bill of health entering the weekend, Purdy will move inside of my top 15 quarterbacks.
Christian McCaffrey, RB
We waited over two months for Christian McCaffrey to return with the thought being that he’d be the 1.01 the second he took the field.
Safe to say that hasn’t been the case.
Despite being thrown into his bell-cow role from the jump, CMC has more fumbles lost than touchdowns three weeks into his season and hasn’t showcased the game-breaking potential that we’ve associated with him for years. Last season, 16.2% of his carries gained 10+ yards, a rate that currently sits at 7% (for reference, Ameer Abdullah’s rate is 8%).
You’re starting McCaffrey, there’s no two ways about that, but I can in good faith keep him on the top line, even if Brock Purdy returns — he’s my RB4 for this week.
Jordan Mason, RB
Jordan Mason has been on the field for just 8.5% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps since Christian McCaffrey returned and has no path to earning more work outside of an injury to the team’s starter.
With their season on the line, the 49ers are likely to ride McCaffrey as hard now as ever, and while that doesn’t mean anything for Mason this week, every touch added to a role increases health risk; that is why I’d hold onto Mason if you have the space as we prepare for the stretch run.
If the 49ers fall this week, do they try to manage McCaffrey and make sure he leaves the season in one piece? That might be overthinking things, but it’s possible, and that would make Mason an impact player during the fantasy postseason.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR
Is there a more difficult player to rank with confidence annually than Deebo Samuel Sr.?
- 2021: 37.6% production over expectations
- 2022: 13.7% production under expectations
- 2023: 35.2% production over expectations
- 2024: 10.2% production under expectations
Samuel’s rushing equity has all but dried up since Christian McCaffrey made his season debut three weeks ago, and we have a downward-trending ability to earn targets that we need to consider. His on-field target share stood at 25.5% in 2021, a rate that fell to 25.1% in 2022, again to 23.4% in 2023, and currently sits at 20.5%.
He remains nearly impossible to tackle in space, so the fact that the Bills allow the 10th most red-zone trips per game opens up some scoring potential, but I worry more about the floor than I idealize the ceiling.
I prefer Jauan Jennings’ tighter range of outcomes in this offense and have Samuel labeled as a Flex play this weekend.
Jauan Jennings, WR
The Brandon Allen version of this offense was all sorts of underwhelming against the Packers last weekend, but that didn’t stop Jauan Jennings from impacting the game by leading the team in targets (seven).
That’s a nice note to present, but it’s kind of like saying you got the best candy when trick-or-treating at the dentist’s office. Is it really that impactful?
The Bills allow the fourth-highest completion rate to the slot (75%) and that has me confident that Jennings can continue to be efficient regardless of who is under center. I have Jennings hovering in the middle of my Flex ranks at the moment — should we get confirmation that Brock Purdy will return, he’ll carry a WR2 status into Thanksgiving, ranking just ahead of the slot man on the other side of the field last week in Jayden Reed.
Ricky Pearsall, WR
For a minute, it looked like the duel for the WR2 role in this offense was going to be competitive between Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings, but that is no longer the case. The rookie has earned just two targets (zero receptions) on his 44 routes over the past two weeks and there are no signs of production looming, even if Brock Purdy is back under center.
With four players now clearly ahead of him in this passing game, there is no reason to keep the light on for Pearsall. I’m far more likely to target offenses in Green Bay or Carolina that have a less solidified hierarchy when it comes to opportunity count and would suggest you do the same.
George Kittle, TE
George Kittle didn’t see much change in terms of his role last weekend with Brock Purdy on the shelf. That has me comfortable in locking the star tight end regardless of the QB situation.
- 2024: 20% on-field target share, 9.0 aDOT, and 12.1 expected points
- Week 12: 22.2% on-field target share, 10.0 aDOT, and 11.9 expected points
The 49ers have made it clear that, no matter the players on the field, Kittle is the man they trust as the end zone comes into focus. He’s scored eight times in his past eight games, and with the Bills focusing on preventing big perimeter plays, he should have room to operate in the middle portion of the field.