The San Francisco 49ers will face the Dallas Cowboys in Week 8. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every 49ers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 8 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Brock Purdy, QB
I highlighted Purdy’s rushing production last week (current pace: 374 yards) as the type of bonus that can make him a weekly fantasy stalwart, but that assumes the passing numbers are stable.
They weren’t last week in a tough matchup against the Chiefs (17/31 for 212 yards with zero touchdowns and three interceptions), and while this matchup is softer, it’s still an opponent coming off their bye and a game that he will enter without Brandon Aiyuk.
Purdy’s yards per pressured pass attempt are down 18.3% from a season ago. Against the fifth-best team in terms of creating chaos, there’s more risk than reward in the profile of San Francisco’s signal-caller.
Assuming that Tua Tagovailoa returns, I’d rather play him against the Cardinals than Purdy this week.
Jordan Mason, RB
Mason entered last week with a shoulder injury, but he wasn’t mentioned on the final injury report and gave us a 25+ yard run for the fourth consecutive week despite posting his worst showing based on expectations this season (-40.6%).
Mason has been fine recently but nowhere near the monster he was to open 2024. He has yet to score in October, and as we near the return of Christian McCaffrey, his days with an elite role appear numbered.
With Dallas ailing on the defensive side of the ball and every pass catcher in San Francisco banged up, this is about as optimal a spot as you could ask for. Only the Commanders have reached the red zone on a higher percentage of their drives than the 49ers (43.7%), and with the Cowboys allowing running back rushing scores at the third highest rate, Mason is deserving of an RB1 label, even despite his recent struggles.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR
Aiyuk’s season came to an end last week with a torn ACL and MCL. With plenty of injuries happening over the past few weeks, I’m here to confirm that you don’t need to burn your IR slot on Aiyuk.
This injury impacts a number of parties (Aiyuk had a team-high 28% target share when these two teams met in Week 5 last season), and I’ll walk you through the values of Deebo Samuel Sr., Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle moving forward.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR
News broke leading up to kickoff last week that Samuel was dealing with an illness, but that was all that was reported. After playing three snaps, it was clear that he wasn’t right, as he was seen struggling to breathe on the sidelines.
Following the game, he was in the hospital with pneumonia, and his status is very much in question. Due to the optics of last week, I find it likely that he won’t be rushed back into the fold, a net positive for his fantasy stock as another start-but-hardly-play instance is less likely to occur.
For the time being, I’m counting on not having Samuel at my disposal this week. His value for the rest of the season in a Brandon Aiyuk-less offense is an interesting case study when he is deemed healthy.
Aiyuk (46.9%) is easily the team leader in target rate on the perimeter. With him out for the season, this pass game figures to revolve around Samuel and George Kittle: it’ll be the receiver who assumes that usage. This season, Samuel has been targeted on 38.9% of his perimeter routes, while Kittle’s rate sits at a predictably low 2.5%.
Samuel projects favorably moving forward, though this is a serious medical condition that needs to be monitored. (Editor’s Note: Samuel was released from the hospital on Tuesday, October 22).
Jauan Jennings, WR
Jennings entered this season viewed as the rare receiver handcuff; with Brandon Aiyuk done for the season, he steps into a weekly Flex-worthy role that could be expanded even further should Deebo Samuel Sr. (pneumonia) be ruled out.
A back injury cost him last week, but Kyle Shanahan indicated following the loss to Kansas City that the hope is to have him active. That would certainly be a welcomed sight for an offense that saw pass catchers drop like flies in Week 7.
Jennings has eight career games with more than five targets, and he’s produced over expectation in seven of them, a sample size that is highlighted by his Week 3 explosion in Los Angeles against the Rams (11 catches on 12 targets for 175 yards and three touchdowns).
Of course, we aren’t expecting that level of production this week, but he’s flirting with a top-30 status for me against a Dallas defense that is at less than full strength. The 49ers operate at the third slowest pace in the league and the Cowboys are the fastest — that tells me that this could be a high-time-of-possession game for the home team, and that gives Jennings a good chance to turn a profit for savvy fantasy managers.
George Kittle, TE
I must have missed the memo, but apparently, it is illegal for primary 49ers offensive pieces to come away from a game at full strength. Kittle is dealing with a foot sprain labeled as a “day-to-day” situation — a minor limp makes him the healthiest of the preseason Big Four in this San Francisco offense.
His overall target rate, red zone target rate, slot usage, and drop rate are all better than last season. Now, he figures to add a volume bump to those efficiency stats with Brandon Aiyuk out of the mix, not to mention the uncertain nature of Deebo Samuel Sr.
A day before his 30th birthday last season, Kittle turned three targets into 67 yards and three scores against the Cowboys, making the headlines when he flashed a “F Dallas” shirt underneath his pads. Yeah, I think he takes this matchup personally, and he’s in a position to impact it in a significant way.
Kittle is my TE1 this week and for the remainder of the season, giving managers who drafted him this summer a decided advantage on the rest of their league.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers Insights
Dallas Cowboys
Team: Dallas beat Cleveland by 16 points in Week 1. Since then, they have a 2-3 record with a -58 point differential.
QB: Brock Purdy threw 17 passes on Sunday with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings all off the field. He only had 14 career pass attempts with his top 3 WRs off the field before that, including playoffs.
Offense: Dallas has converted just 37.5% of its red zone trips into touchdowns, putting it on pace to be the worst Cowboys team of the 2000s (current low: 38.5% in 2002).
Defense: The Cowboys have the worst run defense in the league by EPA this season.
Fantasy: Rico Dowdle has taken over this backfield, and with the Cowboys owning the lowest opposed loaded box rate, we should have running lanes moving forward.
Betting: Since the beginning of last season, the Cowboys are 5-0 ATS on extended rest (Week 7: bye), covering three of their last four games by at least 15 points.
San Francisco 49ers
Team: Don’t forget that it took a little time for this team to get into form last season – they opened 5-3 before rattling off six straight wins after their Week 9 bye. After this game, San Francisco takes their bye.
QB: Brock Purdy’s yards per pressured pass attempt are down 18.3% from a season ago, and he faces off against a defense this week that ranks fifth in pressure rate.
Offense: The 49ers have converted just 45.2% of their red zone trips into touchdowns this season, their lowest rate since 2018 (41.2%).
Defense: The 49ers allow a league-high 9.5 yards per pass to the slow this season largely because those slot routes are extending down the field (11.1 aDOT, fourth highest).
Fantasy: Brandon Aiyuk (46.9%) is easily the team leader in target rate on the perimeter. If we view Deebo Samuel and George Kittle as the primary targets with Aiyuk now done for the season, it’ll be the receiver who assumes that usage. This season, Samuel has been targeted on 38.9% of his perimeter routes, while Kittle’s rate sits at a predictably low 2.5%.
Betting: The 49ers have covered six straight games against the NFC East (Week 5, 2023 vs. DAL: 42-10 win as a 3.5-point favorite).