The San Francisco 49ers have had a tough year. It feels like each week, a new player is getting injured and landing on IR. This week, 49er fans and fantasy football managers alike were blessed with yet another injury to a starting player when QB Jimmy Garoppolo left the game after re-injuring himself. The team announced Garoppolo would be placed on injured reserve for the foreseeable future. With their Week 9 game being played on Thursday Night Football, should fantasy managers fire up Nick Mullens or find another option?
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Jimmy Garoppolo’s up and down 2020
Through eight games for the 49ers this season, QB Jimmy Garoppolo has completed 94 of 140 passes for 1,096 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions. His 67.1% completion percentage is 14th best, right in line with the rest of the league, and as a team, the 49ers are eighth in total offense. But when you look deeper, you start to see some of the negatives, especially from a fantasy standpoint.
Garoppolo is 33rd in Consistency Score (CS) with a 3.05 for the year. This puts him behind both Chicago Bears QBs (Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky), Dwayne Haskins, and Sam Darnold, among many others. Garoppolo’s 1,096 yards account for 50% of the team’s total passing yards, even though he’s started six of the team’s eight games. In two of his starts, including Week 8, he was pulled due to injury and didn’t finish the game at all. This is not someone fantasy managers have been able to rely on at all this season, which has caused a lot of frustration.
Through Week 8, Garoppolo is QB29 overall in fantasy scoring, making him easily droppable in 1QB formats already. The starting QB for the 49ers hasn’t even been worthy of a SuperFlex spot in leagues with that option.
With the recent news that he will be heading on IR, Garoppolo’s fantasy value is basically zero in redraft leagues now. In dynasty leagues, he will still have some value due to his age, but anyone contending this year is likely willing to move on and replace him with someone who can help them win this year. Therefore, is his replacement, Nick Mullens, a worthy option at all for fantasy football managers?
Jimmy Garoppolo injured again, 49ers backup QB Nick Mullens comes off the bench
So far this year, backup 49ers QB Nick Mullens has done well with the little bit of time he’s been on the field. He’s not far behind Jimmy Garoppolo in most categories, throwing for 69 completions on 98 attempts for 852 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. Mullens has started two of the four games he’s played in this season and hasn’t looked terrible doing so. Sure, his TD/Int ratio is pretty low, but his 70.4% completion rate and 213 yards per game are pretty high.
Mullens is a competent QB, but it’s hard to see him making his way into starting lineups in fantasy just yet. His CS is 1.65, so he’s far from consistent, but that puts him only two spots behind Garoppolo at 35th overall. Mullens came off the bench in Week 2 against the New York Jets and threw an interception and was sacked twice. The next two weeks, when he was the starter against the New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles, respectively, he threw a combined two touchdowns to go with two interceptions, a lost fumble and a total of six sacks. Through three games, he definitely hasn’t looked like a starting QB, either in terms of real NFL or fantasy leagues.
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However, this past week while coming off the bench for Jimmy Garoppolo against the Seattle Seahawks, he looked a lot better, throwing for 18 completions on 25 attempts for 238 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions or sacks. While the 49ers didn’t win the game, Nick Mullens was a bright spot for the team. The real question now is: which version of Nick Mullens will we see on Thursday night against the Green Bay Packers, and should you start him in fantasy?
Nick Mullens’ Thursday Night Football fantasy outlook
For one thing, expectations are very low for Mullens this week. On top of Garoppolo leaving the Week 8 matchup early, stud tight end George Kittle also left the game with an ankle injury and is expected to miss this week. Other players on the offense likely to miss include Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, and Tevin Coleman, so Mullens will be working with a lot of fellow backups at the skill positions.
Looking at the Packers and you can start to see a positive angle here. So far for the season, Green Bay is ninth in PPR scoring in Defense Points Against Consistency (DPAC). This means that they generally let up a fair amount of points to opposing quarterbacks. The Packers are first against RBs, meaning they consistently give up the most points to opposing running backs. Luckily for the 49ers, that’s already how their offense is set to operate, with the running backs often getting the bulk of the work.
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Not only is Jimmy Garoppolo missing this week, but Carson Wentz, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield are all on a bye. Add to that Gardner Minshew, who is likely to miss this week, and Sam Darnold, who is questionable with a shoulder injury. Looking at all the options available and the potential for Mullens to do well on a short week against a prime opponent, and Mullens looks more and more like a sneaky option for fantasy managers this week.
Nick Mullens is risky, sure, but at this point of the season, you have to play the upside to win weeks, and the 49ers QB has QB1 upside in fantasy on Thursday Night Football with Jimmy Garoppolo on the bench again. Play him and pray for a shootout, but don’t get too upset if he only gets you eight fantasy points either.
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