The San Francisco 49ers are talented enough to win the Super Bowl, but the defending NFC champions have a lot of work to do. Entering Week 14 with a 5-7 record, the 49ers faced a must-win game against the Chicago Bears. But what are San Fran’s chances of making the NFL playoffs or winning the Super Bowl? Let’s look at all the scenarios in play.
Can the 49ers Still Make the Playoffs?
The San Francisco 49ers are 6-7 and have a 15.1% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a <0.1% chance for the first seed, a 0.2% chance for the second seed, a 4.3% chance for the third seed, a 2.5% chance for the fourth seed, a 0.1% chance for the fifth seed, a 1.2% chance for the sixth seed, and a 6.8% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the 49ers win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that San Francisco has a <0.1% chance to win it all.
Can the 49ers Still Win the NFC West?
Here’s what the NFC West race looks like:
- The Arizona Cardinals have a 14.7% chance to win the NFC West.
- The Seattle Seahawks have a 52.2% chance to win the NFC West.
- The Los Angeles Rams have a 26.1% chance to win the NFC West.
- The San Francisco 49ers have a 7% chance to win the NFC West.
NFC Playoff Race | Week 16
1. Detroit Lions (13-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)
In The Hunt
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
14. Chicago Bears (4-11)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
16. New York Giants (2-13)
49ers’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 15: vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Week 16: at Miami Dolphins
- Week 17: vs. Detroit Lions
- Week 18: at Arizona Cardinals
49ers Preview Before the Bears Game
Here’s where the Bears and 49ers rank in various Pro Football Network metrics.
49ers
Offense+ Metric: 11th (C+)
Defense+ Metric: 19th (C-)
Brock Purdy QB+ Metric: 8th (B+)
Bears
Offense+ Metric: 7th (B)
Defense+ Metric: 7th (B)
Caleb Williams QB+ Metric: 34th (D-)
Let’s look at some other stats and insights for the Bears-49ers matchup.
San Francisco 49ers
- Team: This is San Francisco’s first of two straight at home, though that might not be as comforting as it sounds. The 49ers are 1-3 over their past four home games despite holding a +22 point differential through the first three-quarters of those games (-30 in the fourth quarter).
- QB: Brock Purdy’s yards per third-down attempt went down from 8.8 a season ago to 6.8 this year (Week 13 in Buffalo: 4.2).
- Offense: The 49ers have converted just three of 10 third-down attempts in consecutive games (previous season: 45.4% conversion rate).
- Defense: Over the past three weeks, the Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, and Buffalo Bills reached the end zone 11 times against San Francisco — they walked away from those drives with 11 touchdowns.
- Fantasy: Jordan Mason produced 12.2% over PPR expectations for his career. He was one of two healthy backs (minimum 100 rush attempts), picking up 10+ yards on 15% of his carries this season (other: Jahmyr Gibbs). He is now out with an ankle injury, joining Christian McCaffrey (PCL) on injured reserve.
- Betting: Three of the 49ers’ past four home games have seen S.F. both fail to cover while the under came through.
Isaac Guerendo Atop 49ers’ Injury-Riddled RB Depth Chart
McCaffrey will miss the rest of the season due to a PCL injury, while Mason will miss at least the next four games due to a high ankle sprain. That leaves Isaac Guerendo, a fourth-round rookie, as the lead option in San Fran’s backfield.
- Guerendo has played more than 50% of the snaps just once this season (Week 8 vs. DAL). He took 18 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown and scored 19.2 fantasy points.
Gurendo racked up 99 yards, including a 76-yard run, against the Seahawks in Week 6. - Speed is the name of his game. Guerendo ran a 4.33-second time in the 40-yard dash, putting his speed score in the 100th percentile.
- The 49ers rank seventh with 139.6 rushing yards per game but 18th with a -1.48 rushing EPA per game.
- Boom or bust? San Fran ranks fifth with 15.2% of its rushes going for 10+ yards but also has the 12th-worst stuffed-run percentage (plays with zero or negative rushing yards) at 17.4%.
More on Brock Purdy’s Shoulders?
With McCaffrey and Mason now out of the picture, it’s fair to wonder whether Purdy will rely more on deep passes and shot plays.
- Three games with McCaffrey active: 6.0-yard aDOT (average depth of throw)
- Eight games before McCaffrey’s debut: 9.5-yard aDOT