The San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers will face off in Week 12. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every 49ers and Packers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 12 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
San Francisco 49ers Start-Sit Advice
Brandon Allen, QB
With Brock Purdy’s status up in the air, Brandon Allen is the next man up. The career back-up has thrown just 37 passes since the beginning of 2021 and doesn’t boast the kind of athletic profile that it takes to overcome a career 56.7% completion percentage.
Should Allen take over, Green Bay’s defense could prove to be a slate breaker. They are the third best team at creating pressure when blitzing and you can rest assured that they’d be looking to heat up the 32-year old. The value of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are at risk, though I still think you’re playing them this week despite the lowerd expectations.
Christian McCaffrey, RB
For most backs, 42 touches over a two-week stretch comes with additional time in the cold tub penciled in for the following days. For Christian McCaffrey, we call it easing back into his regular role.
During those two games, CMC has handled 32 carries. Not a single one of them has gained more than 13 yards and none of them have finished in the end zone — and yet, he’s been a top-15 producer at the position in both games. Even without the impact plays, McCaffrey is picking up at least five yards on 40.6% of his rushes, giving him access to his always stable floor.
Is this the week we get an explosion game with San Francisco’s postseason hopes hanging in the balance?
It’s certainly possible and potentially projectable. The Packers are the sixth-worst run defense in terms of success rate, leading me to think that a few of those five-yard runs result in much more. I’ve made this the rare week where I’m paying top dollar for CMC in DFS contests.
Jordan Mason, RB
Remember a month ago when Jordan Mason was the toast of fantasy circles?
Christian McCaffrey is back doing Christian McCaffrey things, and as long as that is the case, Mason is nothing more than depth (three touches in the two games since McCaffrey made his season debut). Fantasy managers and the 49ers should have the same plan for Mason: break glass in case of emergency.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR
George Kittle sat out last week, and Brandon Aiyuk is done for the season. In theory, that lines up perfectly for Deebo Samuel Sr.’s versatility to thrive, right?
Wrong.
In the loss to Seattle, Samuel accounted for 13.8% of San Francisco’s receiving yards and lost a yard on his only carry. He doesn’t have more than five grabs in a game since Week 2 and has found paydirt just once after opening the season with a touchdown against the Jets.
The arrow is pretty clearly pointing down, but the proven ability of the 49ers’ offense to be efficient keeps him in lineups. The Packers are allowing touchdowns on 31.4% of red-zone passes, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, and a flaw that Samuel could well expose.
There is no doubt that the return of Christian McCaffrey limits some of the creative touches in Samuel’s profile. But with its backs against the wall, I expect San Francisco to manufacture more than the five touches given their WR1 last week.
That optimism is enough for me to keep Samuel ranked as a top-15 receiver.
Jauan Jennings, WR
Is Jauan Jennings the WR1 in San Francisco?
I’m not going that far just yet, but he certainly appears closer to their WR1 than their WR3. We are looking at the first player to see 10+ targets from Brock Purdy in consecutive games, a level of volume that might not sustain with George Kittle aiming to return, though a minor dip in usage wouldn’t greatly impact my confidence in labeling him as a fantasy starter.
Jaire Alexander (knee) missed the second half last week against the Bears; if he is operating at anything less than full strength, this efficient offense could take advantage of a Green Bay defense that can be overly aggressive at times.
Jennings is sitting on the WR20 line for me this week, ranking in the same tier as other talented receivers who rank second on their team in terms of target projection (namely Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DeVonta Smith)
Ricky Pearsall, WR
Week 10 was a bit of a red herring, as the production splits made it seem as if the replacement of Brandon Aiyuk was a two-person job split between Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings in something of a receiver-by-committee situation.
That’s not the case.
Jennings made it clear that he is not only the preferred option of that duo but that he might well be the best target earner on this offense. He accounted for 10 of Brock Purdy’s 21 completions on Sunday against the Seahawks while Pearsall was shut out on just two targets.
I don’t think the splits will be that drastic weekly, but that was a game that George Kittle missed, so even if Pearsall’s slice of this offense grows from where it was last week, there’s only so much upward trajectory as the fifth option in this passing game.
Do you know what Pearsall is? At best, he’s Jennings when this offense was at full speed, and that role wasn’t fantasy-viable (3-5 targets being the most likely outcome with the high-value looks going elsewhere).
A name to keep in mind this offseason as the 49ers shuffle their deck? Sure, but not one that I’m too interested in as we navigate the rest of 2024.
George Kittle, TE
We knew that George Kittle was battling a hamstring injury entering the weekend, though his being ruled inactive for Week 11 was a bit of a surprise. The All-Pro tight end has played only one full season in his NFL career (2018), so missed time isn’t something new. Nevertheless, the hope is that Kittle will be ready for the Packers this weekend.
Assuming Kittle is active for the 49ers, he’s active for you. He’s an elite option and a focal part of an efficient offense, but we’ve seen optimism rise in him post-Brandon Aiyuk injury (based on DFS ownership, the questions I get on X, etc.). Since the beginning of last season, however, the data suggests Kittle is nearly the exact same asset, regardless of Aiyuk’s presence.
With Aiyuk on the field, 2024:
- 2.43 fantasy points per target
- 2.29 yards per route
- 21% target rate
Without Aiyuk on the field, 2024:
- 2.32 fantasy points per target
- 2.44 yards per route
- 20.9% target rate
The Packers haven’t played many teams that rely on tight end production the way the 49ers do, but in those spots, they’ve allowed fantasy numbers to the position.
- Evan Engram/Brenton Strange: Nine catches, 95 yards, and a TD (10 targets)
- Trey McBride: Eight catches and 96 yards (eight targets)
I’ll be tracking Kittle’s practice habits throughout the week, though I’m cautiously optimistic that he’ll be active, which is why he sits atop my tight end rankings.
Green Bay Packers Start-Sit Advice
Jordan Love, QB
Jordan Love is having a difficult time stringing four strong quarters together. That is preventing him from living up to the expectations we laid out this summer.
Love has thrown an interception in all eight of his games, with a mistake coming in the red zone in two of the past three matchups. Turnovers generally don’t bother me as much as they do others if they come as a result of aggression, but those interceptions hold more weight when they take sure fantasy points off the board and turn them into a negative.
The desperate 49ers don’t exactly profile as a bounce-back spot. They are the top unit when it comes to defending the deep pass (46.2 passer rating and 32.8% completion percentage). For a quarterback struggling with consistency, a matchup against a defense that limits the splash plays as well as anyone isn’t ideal.
Not all is lost, Love managers. Green Bay’s first drive was a masterpiece (four different players had a 10-yard touch), and Love had a gutsy run late in the game to get the offense to the goal line before finishing the drive with his first rushing score of the season.
I remain optimistic about the long-term outlook, but for Week 12, I can’t justify ranking Love as a starter. He hasn’t posted a top-10 performance since Week 6, and I don’t think he gets there on Sunday (my QB14 this week).
Josh Jacobs, RB
Josh Jacobs has been trusted with at least 17 touches in five of his past six games and was a pretty clear focal point for the Packers last week. To open the game, he picked up 25 yards on four carries during Green Bay’s first six offensive plays of the game. To open the second half, Jacobs had a pair of touches to start a drive that he ultimately finished with a seven-yard score.
That doesn’t happen by accident and provides me with confidence in his floor. I also thought he looked fluid in the passing game last week, something that gives him access to a ceiling that not many have (three top-10 finishes this season). In fact, since the beginning of October, Bijan Robinson and Jacobs are the only running backs with at least 18 rush attempts and 20 receiving yards in three games
I don’t think we see that level of production this weekend against a San Francisco defense that has allowed running back carries to gain 15 yards just once a month, the lowest rate in the league. The floor is enough to start Jacobs with confidence, but you’re just very unlikely to see him replicate his strong Week 11 (134 yards and a touchdown).
MarShawn Lloyd, RB
MarShawn Lloyd was nearing a return from ankle and hamstring issues this time last week after Green Bay opened up his 21-day return window. Yet, in the lead-up to Week 11, Lloyd woke up with appendicitis, an ailment that typically takes upwards of two months to recover from.
I wouldn’t forget his name in 2025, but with Josh Jacobs not set to become an unrestricted free agent until 2028, we’re looking at a handcuff RB at best with no NFL game experience.
In regards to this season, the Packers are in discussions with the league as to how to label their rookie back in terms of roster designations. That doesn’t matter to you, though. Lloyd is safe to cut in all formats, even if you’ve been stashing him in your IR slot (you can do better).
Christian Watson, WR
Christian Watson’s 150 yards, including one of the biggest plays of the win, were a highlight of Week 11. But did you make the wrong decision in benching him?
I’d argue no. Watson’s role earned him just four targets and 6.5 expected PPR points, barely any variation from his role through the first 10 weeks (3.4 targets and 6.0 expected PPR points). He ran hot against the Bears with catches of 17, 25, 48, and 60 yards, something that will happen with a player like this, but not something any rational person would predict for an isolated week.
The 49ers own the third-lowest blitz rate in the NFL and have a ball-control offense, two things that could prove fatal to Watson’s attempt to sustain last week’s momentum.
On top of all of that, it took a down week from Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft for Watson to get the few opportunities that he did. Seeing Watson’s production sit on your bench hurt you last week, but you can’t fix that now.
Wise fantasy managers continue to play the odds, and they are stacked against Watson offering another top-15 performance this weekend, even with six teams on bye.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR
Dontayvion Wicks saw Green Bay’s first target of Week 11 — and that was it for the entire game. Wicks only ran five more routes after that play and is still searching for his first November reception.
Why hold? Why not listen to what this team is telling us?
Jordan Love has proven to be a more volatile QB than we believed he would be this season, and that has left Wicks out in the cold. He’s still a 6’1”, second-year receiver with plenty of per-reception upside (four scores on 16 catches this season), but there’s no reason to hold onto Wicks as your season comes down to the wire.
There is no change coming in Green Bay, which leaves Wicks without a clear path to mattering. I’d rather roll the dice on any “muddy” situation. I’d rather roster Adonai Mitchell, Mike Williams, or any of the Patriots’ dart throws.
At this point in the season, I’m OK with targeting uncertainty. In fact, I want it, plus I’m fairly certain that Wicks isn’t a part of the immediate plan in Green Bay.
Jayden Reed, WR
Thank goodness for that first-drive touchdown last week against the Bears, because Jayden Reed was held to one catch (eight yards) the rest of the afternoon.
I’ve labeled Reed as NFC Zay Flowers, both of whom are promising young receivers providing fantasy managers with plenty of ups and downs this season. I still believe that he’s Green Bay’s alpha receiver, but Reed hasn’t shown it lately (under 30 receiving yards in three of his past five). Is this a sneaky explosion spot?
49ers defensive splits, 2024:
- Yards per pass vs. slot: 8.5 (26th)
- Yards per pass vs. perimeter: 6.0 (fewest)
We know the upside that comes with this profile, and Reed has accessed it when he is involved from the slot. In the four games this season in which he’s earned at least five slot targets, Reed has averaged 21.9 PPR points per game (otherwise: 9.2).
I’m doubling down on my optimism from last week and again have Reed ranked as a top-20 receiver.
Romeo Doubs, WR
Romeo Doubs looked good last week if you watched the first drive and turned the game off. Sadly, I’ve yet to find a fantasy league that allows you to lock in that production and extend it forward.
Jordan Love’s first completion of last week’s dramatic win was a 17-yarder to Doubs, a nice hookup as he escaped the pocket and found his 6’2” weapon on the sideline. That said, it would have been easy to assume that Doubs suffered an injury of some kind, as he was hardly heard from the rest of the afternoon (he didn’t, he was on the field for 81.4% of the snaps).
His red-zone target rate has slipped from 22% a season ago to 13% this season, and that has taken his fantasy upside with it. Stashing Doubs can be justified given the potency of this Green Bay offense compared to others, but he’s not a must-hold asset in my eyes and certainly shouldn’t be near your Flex spot until proven otherwise.
Tucker Kraft, TE
Tucker Kraft is the latest example of how being on the field guarantees you nothing at the tight end position. Kraft played 93% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps against the Bears, yet failed to haul in his lone target.
We liked what we saw from Kraft early this season, and he is attached to an above-average offense. But with an on-field target share no higher than 12% in four of his past five games, the role simply isn’t enough for you to count on moving forward.
I’m not writing Kraft off as potentially mattering in a few weeks, but he’s not a starter until we get proof of concept. He was an afterthought on Sunday, and that was a game in which Jayden Reed (two targets) was hardly used and the Packers were trailing for 41.9% of their snaps.
I’d rather play Jonnu Smith (vs. Patriots), something I didn’t think I’d be saying at this point.