The San Francisco 49ers will face the Miami Dolphins in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every 49ers and Dolphins skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Brock Purdy, QB
What has happened to our reliable Brock Purdy?
Last season, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts were the only QBs in the league with more 20-point performances. The ceiling wasn’t elite, but we felt good about what we’d get weekly, and that was enough to start Purdy with confidence.
This season? Not so much. Over his last five games, Purdy has cleared 18.0 fantasy points three times and failed to reach 4.0 twice. That’s not what we signed up for, and it’s possible that last week’s dud against a vulnerable Rams defense doomed you.
Fantasy doesn’t always mirror reality, but in this case, the inconsistencies align. Against LA, Purdy completed just 9 of 19 non-pressured passes, the worst rate of his career (47.4%). His lack of confidence in his bail-out options is clearly a part of this mess, and, sad to say, that’s not going to change.
Purdy’s completion percentage this season drops from 70.8% when Christian McCaffrey is on the field to 63.8% without the star tailback.
But there’s hope. Er, there’s hope if you think this 49ers team can live up to their potential for the next 60 minutes, understanding that there aren’t likely to be weather concerns and a mini-bye this late in the season is never a bad thing.
Since the beginning of October …
- Purdy’s fantasy points in wins: 24.0 PPG
- Purdy’s fantasy points in losses: 11.0 PPG
Your confidence in Purdy comes down to your projection of this game. I happen to like San Francisco’s chances, which is why he slips into my top 12 at the position. However, I’d be lying if I said I was starting him with the utmost confidence (eight carries for 18 yards thus far in December).
I’m nothing if not a hopeless optimist, so I’ll leave you with this — the last time Purdy had extended rest, he threw for a season-high 353 yards in Florida. This offense remains talented, and if this turns into a track meet, we should see the “good” version of this now wild card option.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Tua Tagovailoa struggled last week, snapping a streak of three straight top-seven performances in the process. I do think we get a bit of a bounce-back week, in part because Miami returns home and in part because the 49ers have struggled to defend the red zone lately (13 straight TDs allowed before a few stops late last week).
My issue with committing in full and ranking Tagovailoa as the top pocket passer on this slate is the possession count. The Dolphins are the eighth slowest moving offense while the 49ers rank dead last. That gives a QB like Tagovailoa almost no room for error if ranked as a top-six QB, a projection I just can’t support.
He’s my QB10 this week, a starter in most formats and willing of a mulligan when it comes to last week.
De’Von Achane, RB
De’Von Achane is a prime example of why we hold versatility in such high regard. His efficiency as a rookie was off the charts, and while that is a nice outlet to have, it’s tough to make a living on something like that that can fade with time.
The second-year back has gone four straight games without a 15-yard rush, something that would have seemed impossible just 12 months ago. As disappointing as those struggles are, Achane’s fantasy managers haven’t blinked.
Over those four games, he’s pulled in 24 passes for 160 yards and three scores — he’s essentially been a viable receiver who happened to get a dozen carries per game.
As long as Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, this year and moving forward, you’re starting Achane and banking on top-10 production at the position.
Isaac Guerendo, RB
Remember all that time and energy we spent a week ago trying to get inside the head of Kyle Shanahan and the usage projection for a banged-up (foot) Isaac Guerendo?
Let’s be smarter.
Adam Schefter came out with confidence the day of the game last week and said that Guerendo was going to play. He doubled down by starting San Francisco’s RB1 in his most important fantasy league (yes, he’s one of us!).
In addition to the most plugged-in man in professional sports reassuring us, many were overlooking the obvious — this is the 49ers, and they rarely halfway use a running back.
San Francisco’s bell-cow role, percentage of RB touches:
- Weeks 1-2, Jordan Mason: 87.5%
- Weeks 10-11, Christian McCaffrey: 89.3%
- Weeks 14-15, Guerendo (minus Q4 of Week 14): 94.4%
Those aren’t “good” rates; they’re borderline psychotic in today’s game, but that’s what this team believes in. Instead of regressing their rates, as injuries suggest may be wise, the 49ers double (and triple) down.
Now, from a results standpoint, Week 15 wasn’t great. The 49ers mustered just six points, which meant that Guerendo’s 20 touches could only be somewhat impactful (75 yards).
I know it’s hard to overlook the results for the process this time of year, but no matter how your matchup played out last week, playing Guerendo against a defense that, entering the week, ranked 26th in rush EPA was the right call.
Until I have a reason to pivot, I refuse. The 49ers are struggling (their TD rate has fallen from 33.5% last season to 20.8% this year), but their willingness to commit in an elite way to a single player is going to suck me in every time.
With Guerendo now trending in the wrong direction, Patrick Taylor Jr. goes from relative unknown to legitimate fantasy Flex option. The fourth year back has just 14 carries this season and 79 on his NFL resume, but we did see him hold down a full-time role in college and projects as the favorite to get the work this week.
That’s not to say he’s a must start (Miami held Joe Mixon to 23 yards on 12 carries last weekend), but it’s rare to find projectable volume on your waiver wire this time of year and he certainly projects for plenty of opportunities this being labeled as a coin flip game.
Raheem Mostert, RB
Raheem Mostert returned from a hip injury last week against the Texans and got nine touches, but nothing that resulted in a meaningful rise in his rest-of-season fantasy stock
The 21-touchdown season feels like a lifetime ago. We’ve seen a few star running backs be kicked to the curb by one team and thrive with another — don’t forget that there are two sides to that coin.
Every season we see fantasy RBs fall off a production cliff (whether it is the result of a role change, a decline in physical abilities, or otherwise), and that needs to be considered next season as some of the top-ranked running backs are going to have some tread on their tires.
Mostert doesn’t need to be rostered in any format, a decision that was effectively made for you around Halloween. Mostert is a great example of the value you can gain by reacting early to what teams are telling you via usage.
Patrick Taylor Jr, RB
Patrick Taylor Jr.’s name popped onto fantasy radars once Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason were lost for the season. He now projects as the betting favorite to lead this backfield in work with Isaac Guerendo deemed, on Thursday, unlikely to play.
We have very little evidence of what the fourth year pro is or isn’t on the professional level, but we do know a few things. We know that his versatility is limited and that this system is fruitful for running backs, even as we move down the depth chart.
Since 2022, running backs in this Kyle Shanahan system average 1.82 yards per carry before first contact, second best over that stretch (Eagles) and 36.8% better than league average. In this a coin flip game, I’m counting on Taylor to get his hands on the ball, assuming Guerendo is officially ruled out, 14-17 times with some reasonable scoring equity against an ordinary scoring defense — he’s a low-end Flex for me that can bail you out if need be.
Jaylen Wright, RB
It’s fair to question how Jaylen Wright has been used this season (65 touches), but that’s not going to change anything. I’m of the belief that we could see him carve out a Jaylen Warren-like role next season, but that’s a projection to battle in June — he’s not helping you win a title over the next few weeks unless Miami elects to call his number if/when mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.
Tyreek Hill, WR
All the vibes in Miami were good entering last week and then — nothing. Tyreek Hill was held without a catch in the first half of the loss to the Texans and posted his ninth finish this season outside of the 30 most valuable PPR receivers.
It obviously has been a far-from-ideal season situationally and burning an age-30 season is a problem. This offseason, we will be forced to determine if there was physical decline in Hill’s game, something that will be challenging given the limitations of this offense and an injury that has lingered.
That’s a problem for another day. When it comes to this week, however, I think your opinion of Hill hinges on how you think this game plays out. The Dolphins are home favorites and that’s never a bad place to start.
If you’re on board with them winning this game, your confidence should elevate him a good amount. This season, Hill’s aDOT is 16.1% lower when Miami is playing with a lead than when they are trailing, a trend I’m OK with weighing heavily in this matchup against the defense that ranks 18th in preventing YAC this season (17th over the past four weeks if you’re more concerned about recent form).
The Dolphins have a 24-point projection, and with Jaylen Waddle at less than full strength, you’re starting Hill.
I just provided that context to give you a little encouragement because who couldn’t use more of that this time of year?
Jauan Jennings, WR
I preached patience and process with Isaac Guerendo earlier and I’m going to go ahead and double down with his teammate in Jauan Jennings.
The two-catch, 31-yard performance was nightmare fuel for Jennings’ managers who had gotten 17.4 PPR points per game for the month prior, but these things happen from time to time. He saw nine targets in a plus-matchup as the featured member of a traditionally efficient offense – you take that profile to the bank most weeks.
Just because the dots didn’t connect on Thursday night doesn’t mean much to me given that the role proved stable. Of course, it means plenty if it knocked you out of your league’ playoffs, but you’re reading this piece because you still have something left to play for. In those spots, I don’t have any reservations about going back to Jennings.
Since Week 6, San Francisco’s WR1 is averaging one target every 3.5 routes run, a number that far exceeds what Brandon Aiyuk posted during his breakout 2023 season (4.2). The valuable looks are being earned at a strong level as well (16.1% of Jennings’ targets have come in the red zone and 10.3% in the end zone), giving me confidence that last week was a blip and not the start of a stock crash at the worst possible time.
You wouldn’t (I hope) refuse to show up for your wedding because your spouse left the toilet seat up or refused to take out the garbage the night before your big day, would you? That’s where I am with Jennings – I can overlook the transgression that was Week 15 in the hopes of a beautiful relationship moving forward.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR
Deebo Samuel Sr. has 10 career games with 20+ routes run and under seven PPR points; Four of those instances have come in the past month. How, in three months, have we gone from “versatile weapon with an increased role expectation as a result of injuries” (if I didn’t write that exact sentence in September, I had to have come close) to “diva that is struggling even when prioritized by the coaching staff”?
I wish I had that answer for you. Despite being featured last week (three targets and a rush attempt on Brock Purdy’s first nine snaps under center), Samuel left us out to dry. Again.
Father Time can be an unforgiving soul, but Samuel is 28 years old and showed signs in the middle of this season that he still had “it.” During a four-game run, he posted three stat lines that featured a 30+ yard catch and at least three rush attempts.
But now here we are. Second-guessing any consideration of Samuel if you somehow have survived two straight scoreless months and five straight sub-25 receiving-yard games. The theoretical upside remains there, but nothing that he (or this team) is telling us suggests that he’s ready to break out of this funk.
When taking a look under the statistical hood of a fantasy asset, I look for signs of hope and settle if no such data presents itself. Generally speaking, I go in looking for something to hang my hat on, especially with a player who has seen his production trend in one direction without an obvious reason why.
Is Samuel leaving air yards on the field? That is, are there high-upside targets in his profile that just aren’t currently giving us much in the way of production?
Nope.
With the air yards lagging, maybe there is PPR upside to chase? While the deep shots might be a thing of the past, this tough-to-tackle commodity still carries upside if he’s an oft-targeted player, even if the passes aren’t thrown very deep.
Surely this has to be the case with the array of injuries that this team has dealt with.
Nope.
Samuel was an elite threat to do damage in scoring situations last season. Maybe he’s still getting those dangerous touches and just running cold on converting them?
Nope.
Samuel did drop what could have been a touchdown last week, and if he cashes that slant route in, the story is likely completely different. I understand that. But he didn’t, and it’s not.
You can chase the 2023 version of Samuel all you like and maybe you catch lightning in a bottle. It could happen.
But everything is trending in the wrong direction, and with the Dolphins posting a top-10 defense in terms of red-zone efficiency and pass-touchdown percentage, not to mention a recent spike in pressure rate (Samuel’s on-field target share when Purdy is pressured is down from 17.8% last season to 12.9% this year), this matchup doesn’t profile as the get-right spot you’re searching for.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
For the season, his target rate (both overall and inside of the red zone) are pacing for a career low. That puts a lot of pressure on the few opportunities he does get.
I find it unlikely that you advanced this far in your fantasy league by counting on Waddle in a significant way. Since the start of last season, Waddle has cleared 13 PPR points in a game nine times, and eight of them have come in front of the Dolphins’ faithful fans.
He’s not a top-30 play for me and ranks alongside Marvin Harrison Jr. when it comes to talented receivers that I’m more comfortable benching than starting in my fantasy playoffs.
George Kittle, TE
How good is George Kittle? At a position that is rarely called upon for role adjustments, he’s doing it. His blocking is obviously of value, but he’s vacuuming in targets are a consistent rate (6+ in seven of nine games) and doing all sorts of damage with them (he has a catch gaining more than 30 yards in six of his past seven contests).
The ability to earn looks is one thing, but the ability to do it all over the field is another. On Thursday night against the Rams, he posted 119 air yards, easily a season-high and six more than he had racked up in the three games prior.
His production aligns with that of his quarterback in that if you think this team is going to win, you’re locking him into your DFS lineup along with your season-long exposure (14+ PPR points in each of San Francisco’s past five victories).
Jonnu Smith, TE
Jonnu Smith is the sixth tight end since 2016 with at least 70 catches and six TDs through 15 weeks. In the scope of that list, only he and Travis Kelce were 29 years of age or older when accomplishing the feat — no matter how you split it, Miami’s veteran is having a helluva season.
His touchdown last week came on a rare Tua Tagovailoa scramble drill where he was unable to uncover on a fourth-down play. Every week he seems to find a different way to produce, and while the Dolphins’ postseason dreams are all but dead, I think their tight end can continue to help you chase yours.
Smith has posted five straight top-seven finishes at the position. I had him ranked as such last week, and he has entered my seven-man circle of trust at the position. You should feel fortunate to have him at your services as you chase glory.
