The San Francisco 49ers held off the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night and are now preparing for their third consecutive NFC Championship Game appearance. But Kyle Shanahan’s squad won’t know the identity of its title-tilt opponent until the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions square off at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Who should the 49ers want to face in next weekend’s game with a Super Bowl trip on the line?
Should the 49ers Root for the Lions or the Buccaneers on Sunday?
The Lions were a better team than the Buccaneers, but Detroit’s three-win advantage in the NFC standings overstates the degree to which it outperformed Tampa Bay in 2023.
Dan Campbell’s team posted a +63 point differential, suggesting the Lions should have won somewhere around 10 games during the regular season. Instead, they won 12.
The Buccaneers’ expected record was more in line with their actual mark (9-8) and point differential (+23). But the gap between these two clubs is not as large as it may appear.
The Lions and Bucs posted similar defensive results by most 2023 metrics. While Detroit allowed 60 more points than Tampa Bay, the two clubs gave up nearly identical yards per play (5.5 vs. 5.4). The Buccaneers ranked 18th in defensive EPA per play (-0.018); the Lions were 21st (-0.008).
The difference is on the offensive side of the ball. Detroit, led by OC/No. 1 head coaching candidate Ben Johnson, ranks in the top five in points, yards per play, and first downs. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers exceeded expectations but were in the bottom 12 in those same metrics.
Could Tampa Bay Beat San Francisco?
Betting markets have the Buccaneers as a 10.5-point road underdog in a potential NFC Championship Game against the 49ers. What would it take for Tampa Bay to pull off the upset?
The Bucs first need to focus on stopping Christian McCaffrey and San Francisco’s rushing attack, which is easier said than done. Tampa Bay ranks fifth in defensive efficiency against the run but is 17th in success rate, suggesting it prevents explosive rushing plays but can be beaten down-by-down.
Todd Bowles may need to adjust his game plan against Brock Purdy and get additional bodies into coverage to guard against the 49ers’ overflowing assortment of weapons, even if Deebo Samuel (shoulder) can’t play or is limited.
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Bowles and the Bucs blitzed at the NFL’s third-highest rate (40.1%) during the regular season, but bringing extra pass rushers is dangerous against Purdy. He averaged a league-leading 10.2 yards per attempt when blitzed in 2023, throwing 15 touchdowns against only three interceptions.
When Tampa Bay has the ball, it may want to attack a San Francisco defense that’s struggled to stop the run this season. But Bucs RB Rachaad White has done most of his damage as a receiver, and TB’s rushing game remains among the least productive in the NFL.
Instead, Mayfield may try to get after a 49ers cornerback and safety that unit that can blow coverages. Ambry Thomas has struggled as a starter on the outside, while veteran safety Logan Ryan has only started three games in 2023. If the Buccaneers can hold up in pass protection, can Mayfield find Mike Evans for a few downfield shots?
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