The San Francisco 49ers, off their bye, attempt to get over .500 and stay in the NFC West race, traveling cross country to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of November 4, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
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San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 48.5)
Everything about our numbers entering Monday Night Football screams that this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team is a good unit that has faced a brutal schedule and some tough injury luck.
Entering tonight’s game, they are above the San Francisco 49ers in PR+, thanks to their offense, which ranks third and is carrying their 25th-ranked defense. That has resulted in the Buccaneers going 3-2 this season when scoring 30 points.
Tampa Bay’s offense is hobbled by injuries, yet still scored 26 points in Week 8. Unfortunately, the defense could be vulnerable to a 49ers team that might be getting Christian McCaffrey back this week. Despite numerous injuries, San Francisco’s offense still ranks 10th and has scored 30 points on four occasions this season.
This looks set to be the end of a tough run for the Buccaneers, who will have to regroup during their bye week. The 49ers should be too much for the Bucs in this game, but it could come down to the wire. The odds of this going over are better than the odds of San Francisco covering 5.5 points on the road, so I’m taking the over.
Prediction: 49ers 30, Buccaneers 24
Pick: Over 48.5
49ers at Buccaneers Game Stats and Insights
San Francisco 49ers
Team: The 49ers won six straight games out of their bye last season, outscoring the opposition 207-94 in the process.
QB: In Weeks 1-7 last season, Brock Purdy’s quick pass rate was 74.1%. Since, that rate has been trimmed to
Offense: Settling. The 49ers have kicked a field goal on 26.5% of their drives this season, up from 11.7% a year ago.
Defense: In Weeks 2-6, San Francisco forced their opposition to go three-and-out on 28.8% of their drives, a rate that spiked in the two weeks before their bye (43.5%).
Fantasy: Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, and Purdy were the only QBs to finish Weeks 6-7-8 as a top-10 fantasy signal-caller.
Betting: The 49ers have covered six of their past eight games as a road favorite (those two losses came in Weeks 2-3 this season, outright losses to the Vikings and Rams).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: Will their fate depend on how they can produce on the road? Following the Week 11 bye, Tampa Bay plays four of five on the road (all of which are winnable: Giants, Panthers, Chargers, and Cowboys).
QB: Baker Mayfield has the longest active streak of multi-pass games at six straight (Josh Allen is second with four straight).
Offense: Tampa Bay has allowed pressure on just 12.8% of dropbacks over the past two weeks, easily the lowest rate in the league.
Defense: The Bucs have allowed opponents to convert 60% of third downs over the past two weeks (first seven weeks: 37.2%).
Fantasy: Cade Otton is one of four pass catchers to have 15 PPR points in each of the past three weeks, joining Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, and Cedric Tillman.
Betting: Overs are 7-2 in the last nine instances in which a team on short rest faces one on an extended break.