Snow and NFL games in Buffalo have become regular occurrences in recent seasons, and we are set for another in Week 13 of the 2024 season. With lake-effect snow impacting the Buffalo area in the latter part of the week, there had been questions about whether the game would even take place this week.
However, with the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Buffalo Bills set to go ahead as of Sunday morning, let’s examine the current weather forecast and what it could mean in terms of fantasy football and betting impact tonight.
Will it Snow During the San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills Game?
The current forecast suggests that snow will continue throughout the game between the 49ers and Bills in Highmark Stadium. The intensity may not be at quite the same level as it’s been over the past 48 hours, but around an inch of snowfall is expected during the game.
But can they do it on a cold, rainy night in Stoke?
Football weather in Buffalo 🏈 pic.twitter.com/lkByBhZRi3
— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) December 1, 2024
The amount of snow falling in the hours leading up to the game is expected to ease slightly, which should help spectators traveling to the game and volunteers tasked with clearing the field and stands. However, the intensity is expected to pick up again between 7 and 10 p.m. ET, which should mean there is a relatively high amount of snowfall during the game itself.
It’s worth noting that this forecast has been somewhat changeable, even in the last few hours, with some having projected that the snow will have eased off by this evening. Therefore, it’s possible we see little or no snow during the game itself, making things very tough for fantasy managers and anyone looking to bet on the game.
What Is the Potential Fantasy Football Impact of the Buffalo Weather Tonight?
Over the last decade, we’ve seen 16 snow games, with an average of 79.6 fantasy points scored in total per team in them. That’s a drop of around 25% over games played in clear weather at warmer temperatures but only a drop of around 5% compared to clear weather games played in games with temperatures below 30 degrees Fahrenheit.
However, we do see a significant shift in where the fantasy points are scored in games with snow at kickoff. Passing output is reduced by around 10-15%, with rushing output increased by more than 30%. Therefore, the likes of James Cook and Christian McCaffrey become even more valuable in these conditions.
Additionally, in a snow game, we would see a boost in value for Deebo Samuel Sr., Jordan Mason, and Ray Davis, who could all see extra touches out of the backfield if this game becomes dominated by run plays.
Josh Allen retains most of his fantasy value, as the Bills will almost certainly look to utilize his rushing ability. Meanwhile, Curtis Samuel could be a sleeper as someone who is comfortable handling the ball out of the backfield.
The likes of Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman (if active), and Khalil Shakir are all risky options to start this week if the snow suppresses passing output.
This is a game where you are going to want to monitor the forecast right up until kickoffs in the 1 p.m. ET slate or whenever you need to make your decisions. If the game is set to be played in cold but clear conditions, the passing game doesn’t get as big of a decrease as it does in snowy conditions.
This likely doesn’t impact your decisions over players like Allen, McCaffrey, and Cook, but it does when it comes to the fringier rushing options and players who derive most of their value from the passing game.
Jennings, Kittle, and Cooper would all be usable fantasy options if this game tonight were to be played in clear conditions. Ironically, someone like Deebo Samuel would actually become a more questionable start in clear conditions.
How Does the Buffalo Weather Impact Betting Decisions?
The potential for snow has seen the total drop a little for this game on sportsbooks. It opened at 46 and now sits at 44.5. However, the original total already factored some potential for snow in, and there is now uncertainty over how much snow may actually fall during the game.
Over the past decade, across 50 games where the temperature at kickoff is between 20 and 29 degrees Fahrenheit, the average points per game is 41.1. Intriguingly, that doesn’t vary very much, regardless of whether the game is played in clear or snowy conditions. In fact, the seven snow games played in those temperatures actually averaged 42.4 points per game compared to 41.1 in 41 games played in clear conditions.
Therefore, the snowfall in this game shouldn’t significantly impact your decision-making. The under is the preferable side, having hit in 31 of the 50 (62%) games that have been played in games kicking off at these temperatures in the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the average total in those games was almost exactly what this one is (44.1).
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the game is up to date as of 6 a.m. ET on Sunday, Dec. 1, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated.