The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft is at an intriguing point, with two teams tied at 2-11 (the Las Vegas Raiders and the New York Giants) and six teams at 3-10 (the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, and Cleveland Browns).
If two teams are tied in terms of record, then the first tiebreaker is a team’s strength of schedule (SOS), with the team with the lowest SOS having the higher pick.
There are two different approaches to displaying the projected NFL Draft order at this stage of the season; the old-school approach used by NFL.com, ESPN, etc., and the full 17-game approach used by Pro Football Network, Tankathon, etc.
The old-school approach calculates the SOS of games that have been played so far. Therefore, entering Week 15, it uses the SOS based on the teams’ first 13 games of the 2024 season. The full 17-game approach calculates SOS based on the opponents in all 17 games that a team will play. That is why you will sometimes see different projected draft orders being shared during the season itself.
Here at PFN, we use the 17-game method, which is the basis for all of the calculations and scenarios below. The current NFL Draft order entering Week 15 for the 2025 NFL Draft is projected to be as follows:
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-11; SOS: .541)
- New York Giants (2-11; SOS: .543)
- New England Patriots (3-10; SOS: .462)
- Carolina Panthers (3-10; SOS: .484)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10; SOS: .489)
- Tennessee Titans (3-10; SOS: .511)
- New York Jets (3-10; SOS: .516)
- Cleveland Browns (3-10; SOS: .525)
2025 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick | Week 15 Update
What this means is that no team “controls their own destiny” in terms of the No. 1 overall pick right now. The Raiders and Giants are the only two teams that can be assured of a top-two pick if they go 0-4 in the last four weeks, and one of those teams would get the No. 1 pick in that scenario. However, neither is guaranteed the first overall pick if they go 0-4, with both having their fate in the hands of their 14 opponents in the 2024 season.
If the season ended today, the Raiders would pick first in the 2025 NFL Draft, as they currently have the worst strength of schedule of the two. However, when you break it down by games won and games lost, the difference is half a game. The Raiders’ opponents have a combined record of 120-102, while the Giants’ opponents have a combined record of 120-101.
Therefore, things could easily flip in the space of just a couple of games. Using the Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers game as an example, if the Panthers win, the Raiders’ SOS would increase to .543, while the Giants would fall to .540, as they faced both the Panthers and the Cowboys twice this season, so they would get a 1-2 record added to their SOS. The Giants would temporarily be projected to have the first overall pick until another result changes things again.
If both teams continue to lose their own games, the SOS could fluctuate until the end of Week 18. Ironically, by losing, both teams are also increasing their own SOS by adding to the win column of their respective opponents.
Here are the games in Week 15 that will impact the Giants’ and Raiders’ SOS situations, whose SOS would increase if that team won, and the rooting interests for each of the two fan bases.
- Cowboys (NYG x2) at Panthers (LV; NYG)
- Giants Fans: Panthers
- Raiders Fans: Cowboys
- Chiefs (LV x2) at Browns (LV; NYG)
- Giants Fans: Chiefs
- Raiders Fans: Browns
- Dolphins (LV) at Texans
- Giants Fans: Dolphins
- Raiders Fans: Texans
- Jets at Jaguars (LV)
- Giants Fans: Jaguars
- Raiders Fans: Jets
- Commanders (NYG x2) at Saints
- Giants Fans: Saints
- Raiders Fans: Commanders
- Ravens (NYG) at Giants
- Giants Fans: Ravens
- Raiders Fans: Giants
- Bengals (LV; NYG) at Titans (NYG)
- Giants Fans: Bengals
- Raiders Fans: Titans
- Colts (NYG) at Broncos (LV x2)
- Giants Fans: Broncos
- Raiders Fans: Colts
- Buccaneers (LV; NYG) at Chargers (LV x2)
- Giants Fans: Chargers
- Raiders Fans: Buccaneers
- Steelers (LV; NYG) at Eagles (NYG x2)
- Giants Fans: Steelers
- Raiders Fans: Eagles
- Packers at Seahawks (NYG)
- Giants Fans: Packers
- Raiders Fans: Seahawks
- Bears at Vikings (NYG)
- Giants Fans: Bears
- Raiders Fans: Vikings
- Falcons (LV; NYG) at Raiders
- Giants Fans: Raiders
- Raiders Fans: Falcons
As things stand, the PFN Playoff Predictor gives the Giants a 39.3% chance of clinching the first overall pick, while the Raiders are actually third “favorites” at 16.9%, behind the Patriots (17.0%).
The reason for that is that the Raiders have a game at home against the Jaguars in Week 16 that they are slightly favored to win in our projections (54.9% win probability). Additionally, the Raiders have a greater-than-30% win probability in all of their remaining games, while the Giants are below that in three of their four, and the Patriots are below that in all four games.
Based on our individual game projections, the Raiders have just a 12% likelihood of going 0-4, while the Giants have a 34% likelihood and the Patriots have a 39% likelihood.
The Patriots’ percentage chance of getting the first overall pick is high because their SOS is .462. Their opponent record is 103-120, which is 17 wins lower than the Raiders and 18 wins lower than the Giants. Therefore, if the Giants or Raiders were to win a game in the remaining four weeks, it is unlikely their SOS would be lower than the Patriots after Week 18.
In general, things get a lot more complicated for the No. 1 pick if both the Giants and Raiders win one more game.
Both of those teams could fall significantly in the draft order. Their respective SOS is currently higher than any of the 3-10 teams, so if they win a single game, they could find themselves falling as low as the seventh and eighth picks if all those other teams remain on three wins.
The Patriots would be in pole position in that instance, but they only have a four-game “lead” in terms of SOS over the Panthers and six games over the Jaguars. Therefore, they will also be closely watching their 14 opponents to see how that evolves in terms of their chances to get the No. 1 overall pick.
Our projections have the chances of getting the No. 1 overall pick for all eight teams at 2-11 or 3-10 as follows:
- New York Giants 38.9%
- New England Patriots 17.0%
- Las Vegas Raiders 16.9%
- Carolina Panthers 5.6%
- Cleveland Browns 5.5%
- Jacksonville Jaguars 5.4%
- New York Jets 4.3%
- Tennessee Titans 3.6%
Below is an overview of the scenarios that need to play out for each of the eight two- and three-win teams to get the number one overall pick. To play out specific scenarios for yourself, visit the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor where the projected NFL Draft order updates live with each selection.
Las Vegas Raiders’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Raiders is that they go 0-4, and the Giants win one game. That would leave the Raiders as the only two-win team in the NFL.
If both teams finish with two wins, the Raiders need to hold onto a half-game advantage in terms of SOS. As described above, this is largely out of their hands, and there are lots of potential outcomes.
As we advance through each of the next four weeks, we will have a clearer picture of what the Raiders need to happen. Potential clinching scenarios could come into play in Week 17 or 18.
Here is the Raiders’ No. 1 pick rooting guide for Week 15:
- Cowboys
- Browns
- Texans
- Jets
- Commanders
- Giants
- Titans
- Colts
- Buccaneers
- Eagles
- SNF: Seahawks
- MNF: Vikings
- MNF: Falcons
New York Giants’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Giants is that they go 0-4, and the Raiders win one game. That would leave the Giants as the only two-win team in the NFL.
If both teams finish with two wins, the Giants need to overturn a one-game disadvantage in terms of SOS. As described above, this is largely out of their hands, and there are lots of potential outcomes.
As we advance through each of the next four weeks, we will have a clearer picture of what the Giants need to happen. Potential clinching scenarios could come into play in Week 17 or 18.
Here is the Giants’ No. 1 pick rooting guide for Week 15:
- Panthers
- Chiefs
- Dolphins
- Jaguars
- Saints
- Ravens
- Bengals
- Broncos
- Chargers
- Steelers
- SNF: Packers
- MNF: Bears
- MNF: Raiders
New England Patriots’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Patriots would be for them to go 0-4, and all other teams get to four wins, leaving them as the only team with three wins.
However, the most “realistic” scenario would be that the Giants and Raiders both win one more game to reach three wins. The Patriots currently have the lowest SOS by four games among two- and three-win teams, so they would need to hold onto that, but that is largely out of their control.
An ideal situation for the Patriots would be for at least the Giants, Raiders, Panthers, and Jaguars to win one more game each. That would leave the Patriots with a 10-game lead in terms of SOS over the nearest remaining three-win team as things stand entering Week 15. While not impossible for that to be overturned, it is significantly less likely to see a change than a four-game lead.
Carolina Panthers’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Panthers would be for them to go 0-4, and all other teams get to four wins, leaving them as the only team with three wins.
However, the most “realistic” scenario would be that the Giants and Raiders both win one more game to reach three wins. The Panthers currently have the second-lowest SOS among the two- and three-win teams, so they would need to get below the Patriots (who have the lowest SOS of that group) and hold onto their lead over the others — but that is largely out of their control.
An ideal situation for the Panthers would be for at least the Giants, Raiders, Patriots, and Jaguars to win one more game each. That would leave the Panthers with a six-game lead in terms of SOS over the nearest remaining three-win team as things stand entering Week 15. While not impossible for that to be overturned, it is less crowded than their current situation with the Patriots and Jaguars on either side of them.
Jacksonville Jaguars’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Jaguars would be for them to go 0-4, and all other teams get to four wins, leaving them as the only team with three wins.
However, the most “realistic” scenario would be that the Giants and Raiders both win one more game to reach three wins. The Jaguars currently have the third-lowest SOS among the two- and three-win teams, so they would need to get below the Patriots and Panthers and hold onto their lead over the others, but that is largely out of their control.
An ideal situation for the Jaguars would be for at least the Giants, Raiders, Patriots, and Panthers to win one more game each. That would leave the Panthers with a five-game lead in terms of SOS over the nearest remaining three-win team as things stand entering Week 15. While it is not impossible for that to be overturned, it is less crowded than their current situation, with the Patriots and Panthers below them in terms of SOS.
Tennessee Titans’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Titans would be for them to go 0-4, and all other teams get to four wins, leaving them as the only team with three wins.
However, the most “realistic” scenario would be that the Giants and Raiders both win one more game to reach three wins. The Titans currently have the fourth-lowest SOS among the two- and three-win teams, so they would need to get below the Patriots, Panthers, and Jaguars and hold onto their lead over the others, but that is largely out of their control.
Things get more complicated for the Titans than with the Patriots, Jaguars, and Panthers because they have an SOS right in the middle of the pack. Ideally, the Patriots, Jaguars, and Panthers would win one more each, as would the Giants and Raiders.
That would leave the Titans with the lowest SOS as things stand. However, they are only one game below the Jets in terms of SOS, so that lead is extremely tenuous. They are also only three games below the Browns in SOS and just seven and eight games ahead of the Giants and Raiders. Therefore, a lot could change among those five teams, making this a tricky scenario to chart.
New York Jets’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Jets would be for them to go 0-4, and all other teams get to four wins, leaving them as the only team with three wins.
If it comes down to SOS, the Jets currently sit in the middle of the pack in terms of the two- and three-win teams. They have a higher SOS than the Patriots, Panthers, Jaguars, and Titans but are below the Browns, Raiders, and Giants.
At the very least, the Jets need the Raiders and Giants to both win one more game, but having two or three others also win another game would clear things up. If that is not the case, their fate is largely out of their hands, and they will need to rely on shifts in SOS over the final few weeks to put them on course for the No. 1 overall pick.
Cleveland Browns’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Browns would be for them to go 0-4, and all other teams get to four wins, leaving them as the only team with three wins.
If it comes down to SOS, the Browns currently sit at the upper end of the pack in terms of the two- and three-win teams. They have a higher SOS than the Patriots, Panthers, Jaguars, Titans, and Jets but are below the Raiders and Giants.
At the very least, the Jets need the Raiders and Giants to both win one more game, but having two or three others also win another game would clear things up. If that is not the case, their fate is largely out of their hands, and they will need to rely on shifts in SOS over the final few weeks to put them on course for the No. 1 overall pick.