With five weeks remaining in the 2024 NFL season, roughly a dozen teams still have a realistic shot at scoring the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Three teams have two wins; five teams have three wins; three teams have four wins; and three teams have five wins. The strength-of-schedule rankings (first tiebreaker) are also very close, so the draft order could see significant movement over the next month. Reminder: The team with the lower SOS gets the higher pick.
With all that in mind, let’s look at where things currently stand in the race for the first pick in next year’s draft.
2025 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick | Week 14 Update
Here’s what the top of the draft board looked like ahead of Sunday’s Week 14 action, per Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor. (Note: Our SOS rankings factor in the current records for each team’s remaining opponents.)
- Jacksonville Jaguars, 2-10 (.498 SOS)
- Las Vegas Raiders, 2-10 (.531 SOS)
- New York Giants, 2-10 (.538 SOS)
- New England Patriots, 3-10 (.461 SOS)
- Carolina Panthers, 3-9 (.485)
- New York Jets, 3-9 (.507 SOS)
- Tennessee Titans, 3-9 (.509 SOS)
- Cleveland Browns, 3-9 (.514 SOS)
- New Orleans Saints, 4-8 (.493 SOS)
- Cincinnati Bengals, 4-8 (.493 SOS)
- Chicago Bears, 4-8 (.561 SOS)
- Miami Dolphins, 5-7 (.426 (SOS)
- Dallas Cowboys, 5-7 (.517 SOS)
- San Francisco 49ers, 5-7 (.560 SOS)
The strength-of-schedule stuff can be confusing, so let’s go through it.
Why does the team with the lower SOS get the higher pick? Well, the NFL’s logic is that if two teams finished with the same record but one team had an easier schedule, that team should be considered the inferior team and receive a higher pick.
The SOS percentages listed above will change a bit over the next five weeks — but not much. Again, they factor in each team’s remaining opponents.
SOS percentages are the winning percentage for each team’s opponents in a season, with divisional opponents counting twice. As such, every game impacts SOS percentages around the league.
Example: The Patriots currently have a .461 SOS. They played the Bengals in Week 1. If the Bengals lose to the Cowboys on Monday, New England’s SOS will see a marginal decrease with the reverse happening if Cincinnati wins.
Now, let’s look at scenarios for some notable teams atop the draft board.
Notable Teams’ Chances for No. 1 Pick in 2025 NFL Draft
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have a 10.8% chance to land the No. 1 pick, according to the PFN Playoff Predictor. Let’s look at their remaining schedule.
- Week 14: at Titans
- Week 15: vs. Jets
- Week 16: at Raiders
- Week 17: vs. Titans
- Week 18: at Colts
The Jags currently own the top pick, but it’s easy to envision them losing it. All of their remaining games are winnable, and it would only take a couple of victories for them to slip outside the top five, especially with their SOS tracking to be higher than New England and Carolina’s.
Moreover, three of Jacksonville’s remaining games are against the Titans and Raiders, two teams also jockeying for position atop the board. If the Jaguars beat the Raiders, finishing with the top pick will be difficult.
That said, with Mac Jones under center for the rest of the season, Jacksonville is capable of losing out
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have a 12.5% chance to land the No. 1 pick, according to the PFN Playoff Predictor.
- Week 14: at Buccaneers
- Week 15: vs. Falcons
- Week 16: vs. Jaguars
- Week 17: at Saints
- Week 18: vs. Chargers
The Raiders have a great shot at landing the top pick. They easily could lose out, and if they do, they’d be guaranteed to finish with a top-two selection.
That said, for Vegas, it’s all about not finishing behind another QB-needy team. The Raiders likely would be content landing the No. 2 pick and seeing the Jaguars pick first overall.
New York Giants
The Giants have a 28.7% chance to land the No. 1 pick, according to the PFN Playoff Predictor.
- Week 14: vs. Saints
- Week 15: vs. Ravens
- Week 16: at Falcons
- Week 17: vs. Colts
- Week 18: at Eagles
If the Giants lose to the Saints on Sunday, they’ll be well on their way toward losing out and securing a top-three pick. Drew Lock and/or Tommy DeVito might be capable of beating the Saints and maybe the Colts, but could they beat the Ravens, Falcons, or Eagles? Probably not.
New York’s biggest problem is its highest SOS in the top 10. The Giants are essentially guaranteed to lose SOS tiebreakers against all teams in the top 10 except the Raiders.
New England Patriots
The Patriots have a 23.2% chance to land the No. 1 pick, according to the PFN Playoff Predictor.
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: at Cardinals
- Week 16: at Bills
- Week 17: vs. Chargers
- Week 18: vs. Bills
The Patriots have the lowest SOS in the top 10 and will be heavy underdogs in each of their four remaining games. Their best shot at victory likely would be in Week 18 if the Bills rest their starters. Otherwise, New England could be staring at a seven-game losing streak to end the season.
If the Jags, Raiders, and Giants all pick up at least one more win and the Patriots lose out, New England will claim the first pick.
New York Jets
The Jets have a 2.0% chance to land the No. 1 pick, according to the PFN Playoff Predictor.
- Week 14: at Dolphins
- Week 15: at Jaguars
- Week 16: vs. Rams
- Week 17: at Bills
- Week 18: vs. Dolphins
The Jets could make things interesting if they lose at least four of their five remaining games, including a loss to the Jaguars. However, New York has almost no shot at winning an SOS tiebreaker against New England or Carolina, so it would need those teams to win a game or two the rest of the way.
Regardless, the Jets are long shots to earn the No. 1 pick. But they’re not completely out of it.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans have a 1.1% chance to land the No. 1 pick, according to the PFN Playoff Predictor.
- Week 14: vs. Jaguars
- Week 15: vs. Bengals
- Week 16: at Colts
- Week 17: at Jaguars
- Week 18: vs. Texans
With two games left against the Jaguars, the Titans would be in prime position for the No. 1 pick if they lose out. But they have nearly zero chance of winning SOS tiebreakers against the Patriots or Panthers, so their odds of finishing in the top spot are slim.
Furthermore, Tennessee’s played relatively well over the last month, so it’s easy to envision the Titans picking up a win or two.
Chicago Bears
The Bears have a 0.4% chance to land the No. 1 pick, according to the PFN Playoff Predictor.
- Week 14: at 49ers
- Week 15: at Vikings
- Week 16: vs. Lions
- Week 17: vs. Seahawks
- Week 18: at Packers
Could the Bears really finish in the top spot for the third year in a row? It’s highly unlikely, but it’s not impossible.
With the highest SOS in the top 14, the Bears basically need to lose out and see each team above them win multiple games. In fact, Chicago would need the Jaguars, Raiders, and Giants to win three more games. That’s not happening.