Going into the Super Bowl rematch on Monday Night Football, the Kansas City Chiefs were slight favorites to repeat. After their 21-17 win over the defending champions, the Philadelphia Eagles are now 9-1 with a two-game lead for the top seed in the NFC over the Detroit Lions. After Week 11, what do the new 2024 Super Bowl odds look like?
2024 Super Bowl Odds
Going into Week 12, we have a three-way tie at the top of the Super Bowl odds, with the Eagles, Chiefs, and 49ers now being co-favorites.
After a three-game losing streak, San Francisco looks like Super Bowl contenders once again, as they have won two games in a row by a combined 44 points. They look like an unstoppable force when their offense is completely healthy. They’re 7-0 with an average margin of victory of 20.4 points at full strength.
Following the three favorites are the Ravens, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Lions. After the top seven, there are no other teams with Super Bowl odds of +1000 or shorter.
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- Eagles/Chiefs/49ers (+450)
- Baltimore Ravens (+800)
- Miami Dolphins (+900)
- Dallas Cowboys/Detroit Lions (+1000)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+2000)
- Buffalo Bills (+2200)
- Cleveland Browns/Seattle Seahawks (+4000)
- Houston Texans (+5000)
- Los Angeles Chargers/New Orleans Saints/Pittsburgh Steelers (+6000)
- Denver Broncos/Minnesota Vikings (+10000)
Who Is the Best Super Bowl Bet Right Now?
The Eagles, Chiefs, and 49ers are rightfully the co-favorites, but there isn’t any value in betting on a team with +450 odds or shorter to win the Super Bowl. There are still seven weeks left in the regular season, and the competition looks very wide open.
If I had to make one pick of the three co-favorites, however, it would be Philadelphia. Although I think San Francisco is the better team at the moment, the Eagles have a clearer path to the top seed in the NFC, and having a first-round bye as well as home-field advantage is extremely important.
Despite their 9-1 record, the Eagles also have not come close to reaching their full potential on both sides of the ball.
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Although they still remain extremely talented on defense, the 49ers losing safety Talanoa Hufanga to a season-ending torn ACL is a major blow. Hufanga was a first-team All-Pro in 2022 and was having another spectacular season prior to his injury.
It’s hard to count out Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but as we saw on Monday Night Football, their wide receivers are extremely concerning. Outside of Travis Kelce, this could be the worst receiving corps in the NFL, and it’s hard to win games in January when you’re short on pass catchers you can trust.
Who Is the Best Super Bowl Long Shot?
It’s hard to find a worthwhile long-shot bet at this point in the season, but if I had to pick one, I would go with the Buffalo Bills.
Even though they’re far from a sure thing to make the postseason, you can argue the Bills have the most trustworthy offense in the AFC. They lead AFC offenses in success rate and trail only the Dolphins in EPA/play and DVOA, but they still remain unproven, to an extent, against playoff teams.
Buffalo’s offense ranks highly despite their 19 giveaways for the season, the fifth worst in the NFL. I expect to see some regression when it comes to turnovers for this Buffalo offense, as Josh Allen has thrown for the most interceptions this season despite having only the 15th-most turnover-worthy plays, according to Pro Football Focus.
Obviously, the Bills’ defense is a legitimate concern, and they’re not even in the playoff picture at the moment. This is a long shot for a reason, but my favorite on the board.
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