It is now June. We’re not quite fully in the throes of preparing for the upcoming redraft fantasy football season, but we’re getting there. It’s never too early to start getting an idea of what draft boards look like.
Here is a 1QB PPR mock draft analyzed through the lens of the No. 1 and No. 12 spots.
Later in the summer, we will have mock drafts with all of the PFN Fantasy Analysts, as well as with our great Discord community. For now, though, you’re stuck with just me.
I am only one person. As much as I’d like to, if I’m drafting for every team, it’s not possible for me to truly and honestly make every pick without factoring in what my other teams look like.
Instead, I am going to draft against the computer from the first and last spots. Given how far apart they are, I can draft each team without worrying about stealing players from myself, as there’s no one going at No. 1 that is making it to No. 12, or vice versa, anyway.
In these mocks, I will explain my thought process behind each pick. This will be less player analysis and more draft strategy discussion and explaining why I am targeting a specific position or taking one player instead of another.
Now that my long-winded prologue is complete, let’s get to the mock draft.
This is a Full-PPR league with a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex. My mocks never include kicker or defense.
Redraft Mock Draft From the No. 1 Spot
1.01) Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Is there a chance Christian McCaffrey breaks down? Yes. Is there a chance the 49ers actually reduce his workload, taking him from super mega elite RB1 to a merely elite RB1? Yes.
Does it matter? No.
McCaffrey is the best fantasy asset since LaDainian Tomlinson. He’s still in his prime. He was the overall RB1 last year. Don’t overthink it. The most valuable asset in fantasy football remains the elite running back. If you pick No. 1, take CMC.
2.12) Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
As a reminder, it is only June. I could change my feelings over the coming months. However, right now, I am all in on the King.
Derrick Henry may be 30 years old, and drafting 30-year-old RBs is generally a bad idea in any round, let alone the second. Nevertheless, I don’t believe Henry is cooked. Any decline he’s shown is moderate, at best.
Henry is in an ideal situation and has 15-touchdown upside on a Ravens offense that leads frequently and wants to run the ball but doesn’t want to subject its elite QB to unnecessary hits.
3.01) Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Taking a third running back was not an option. Josh Allen is firmly in play here, but I went with old reliable Mike Evans.
So far, this draft is the antithesis of how I typically build teams. I’ve taken a 28-year-old RB and two players over 30.
My new philosophy on older players is I will believe they are done when they show signs of decline. We’ve seen nothing of the sort for Evans.
The Bucs’ offense should look just like it did last season when Evans was one of the best values in all of fantasy.
Evans may not have top-five upside, but a finish around WR8-14 is nearly guaranteed.
4.12) Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
I hate having to pass on Joe Mixon here, but that’s the price I pay for starting out RB-RB. Plus, there are two players available I absolutely love who fell right into my lap.
The first is Tank Dell, who is definitely one of “my guys” this season. Dell was someone I was eyeing up before the Texans traded for Stefon Diggs. His production was similar to Nico Collins’ when both were playing last season. Yet, Dell was going several rounds later.
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Sophomore WRs are historically great bets. Dell was an every-week WR2 as a rookie. He’s only going to get better.
After the Texans acquired Diggs, I was stunned to find out Diggs was going ahead of Dell. While I don’t believe Diggs is fully cooked, I do think he’s a bit charred and will be playing more of a complementary role. Dell is way undervalued and I am thrilled to get him at the end of the fourth round.
5.01) Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Three things have conspired to make Mark Andrews the single best value at TE this season. First, Sam LaPorta posted the greatest rookie TE season of all time. Second, Trey McBride broke out in an offense that wholly lacked a true WR1. Third, the Bills lost their top two receivers, paving the way for Dalton Kincaid to be drafted with serious progression baked into his price.
Have we forgotten just how good Andrews has been for the past five years? He’s three years removed from averaging 17.7 fantasy points per game. He was at 13.5 ppg last season before he got hurt.
Andrews is still Lamar Jackson’s top target. We’re getting an injury discount, and I will gladly scoop it up.
6.12) Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
The general rule of thumb is you want four WRs by the seventh round. Since I drafted a TE early, I am not going to get there. But if we view Andrews as my WR3 and my WR3 as my TE, it works out just fine.
Another guideline I like to live by is I am willing to take an early QB or an early TE, but never both. Since this is a mock, and an early one at that, I am willing to break that rule for science.
Kyler Murray has the same level of upside as any of the top QBs. Yet, he goes several rounds later. He is my No. 1 QB target. This is the right spot for him.
7.01) Hollywood Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
This is a tricky spot and one I can already tell will be a challenge for me in snake drafts this year.
There are a lot of players I like here. However, all of them have much later ADPs. My next three RBs and four WRs would all be considered reaches. Yet, I have to take someone.
The strategy here is to take the top guy on my board that I feel is least likely to make it back to me. Since I am fairly confident at least one, if not two, of the RBs I want to draft will be there at my next two picks, I went with the top receiver on my board, Hollywood Brown.
8.12) Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Well, this couldn’t have worked out better. Zack Moss was specifically the running back I was hoping to draft.
The clear RB1 for one of the league’s best offenses, Moss has 2023 Joe Mixon upside. Yet, he’s going five rounds later than Mixon was last year. Yes, please.
9.01) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
I only have three WRs. I have to take another one. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is far from a sure thing, but he was the top WR taken in the 2023 class and flashed upside as a rookie.
With Tyler Lockett another year older, Smith-Njigba should be able to take over the WR2 role in Seattle. There’s fantasy WR2 upside here.
10.12) Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams
This was a situational pick. Blake Corum actually wasn’t the highest remaining RB on my board. However, I started RB-RB. Unless one of them gets hurt, they are starting every week. I don’t need an RB4 who can get in my lineup right away. I want to swing for the fences.
Corum has RB1 upside if something were to happen to Kyren Williams.
11.01) Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
I need a fifth receiver. However, I don’t see much difference between the WRs available now and the ones I can expect to get with my next two picks. As a result, I will go with what will likely be my final running back.
Zach Charbonnet played reasonably well as a rookie. He could be in line for a larger role this season under a new coaching staff. He also stands to benefit significantly if Kenneth Walker III were to get hurt. This is another upside pick.
12.12) Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Whereas at running back, I was able to purely chase upside, at wide receiver, I have only four so far. That means I need to consider taking a guy who I can start if necessary.
Joshua Palmer is the Chargers’ most experienced WR. He may very well lead this team in targets.
13.01) Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers
It’s highly unlikely Ricky Pearsall has any early-season value. As my WR5, I can afford to wait and see if something happens with Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel.
14.12) Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers.
I’m not taking a backup QB or TE. I have six WRs and five RBs already. That means I can go in any direction with this pick.
There were actually several WRs left who have plausible upside. I went with Dontayvion Wicks because of the ambiguity with the Packers WRs, as well as my lack of belief in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
Redraft Mock Draft From the No. 12 Spot
1.12) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
I really, really don’t want to pick at No. 12 if any of my leagues. Or 11, either. There are 10 players I like significantly more than the next best guys. They were the first 10 picks off the board.
At No. 12, I went with Garrett Wilson. Even though Wilson has never finished anywhere near a WR1, it hasn’t exactly been his fault.
With a healthy Aaron Rodgers, everything about Wilson’s profile suggests he can be a top five receiver. Whether that actually materializes remains to be seen, but I am chasing upside.
2.01) Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
This is the first true mock I’ve done for the upcoming season post-NFL Draft. I am experimenting, and giving you my thoughts in real time, rather than going back after I’m done and writing about the selections.
I took Davante Adams here because he is the top-ranked WR on my board. It’s too early for a TE or a QB, and my expectation is I am going to like the running backs at the 3/4 turn a lot more than the WRs.
That being said, I don’t love this pick because Adams isn’t clearly better than any of the next five or so players on my board, all of whom are available. This is just a tough spot to draft from.
3.12) Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Again, I am not sure how the later rounds are going to play out. My initial belief that I would like the running backs here more was not exactly correct.
There were four players available that looked like really good values to me: DJ Moore, Jaylen Waddle, Isiah Pacheco, and Rachaad White. The players I want to draft retroactively depend on what’s available to me in rounds 5 and 6.
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Since I started out WR-WR, going WR-WR again is not an option. The question was whether to take Pacheco and a WR or Pacheco and White. Judging how the picks are likely to play out, I believe I will prefer the WRs with my next two selections. Therefore, I took the top two RBs on my board…
4.01) Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The second of which was Rachaad White. I like White a decent amount more than my next ranked RB, Joe Mixon, in full PPR. If this were half PPR, I would probably have gone with Mixon just to not take two players on the same team this high.
Isiah Pacheco is locked into what could be a three-down role in an offense I expect to score a lot more points this season. White was one of the best receiving backs in the league last year.
Even though he was still terrible as a runner, that doesn’t matter because White catches passes and gets goal-line carries. This year’s Rachaad White sure looks like…Rachaad White.
5.12) Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
When I passed on a WR at the 3/4 turn, I was specifically eyeing up Christian Kirk in this spot. After him, it would be too early to draft the next set of WRs I like. This couldn’t have worked out better.
Kirk is now back in the WR1 role for the Jaguars, a role he excelled in two years ago. While he profiles more as a WR2, the Jaguars kind of have two WR2s, plus a great receiving TE and a pure burner in Gabe Davis. Kirk should either lead the team in targets or be very close to Evan Engram.
In three-receiver sets, Davis will likely play outside with Brian Thomas Jr., allowing Kirk to move into the slot, where he thrives. This is a WR2 at a WR3 price.
6.01) David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
It’s such a weird year when I can draft my RB16 in the sixth round. Jahmyr Gibbs will certainly see more work this season, but David Montgomery is not going to just go away.
Montgomery will remain the goal-line back in an offense that likes to run near the end zone. He is more likely to score any given week than not, and he will be my RB3.
7.12) DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans
I am definitely drafting a team that skews older here, but I’m fine with that if the players are right. DeAndre Hopkins is definitely not the receiver he once was. However, I still think he can be an effective WR3.
What appeals to me most is his and Calvin Ridley’s ADPs should be flipped. I believe I am getting the better fantasy asset at a cheaper price.
8.01) Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers
Write this down in permanent marker: There is no universe where Jonathan Brooks’ ADP holds up. No chance. None. There’s no way a starting running back in the NFL and the top RB taken in the 2024 NFL Draft is going to fall into the eighth round by the time August rolls around.
Even with Chuba Hubbard, the Panthers ran the ball pretty well last season. Brooks is better than Hubbard, and the Panthers spent a second-round pick to get him. He’s going to play.
At this price, even if he’s an RB3, he’s worth it.
9.12) Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
I don’t want to completely punt QB and TE. Since we’ve already past the point where there are any tight ends of consequence, I have to take a potentially impactful QB here.
Jayden Daniels just needs to stay healthy to be a QB1. He has elite rushing upside, which is enough. If he happens to be a better passer as a rookie than expected, then he has top-five upside.
10.01) Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
This was a tough one because I like Tyjae Spears and Devin Singletary about the same. I also wanted to take Curtis Samuel. Unfortunately, I can only make one pick, knowing full well they will all be gone by the time it gets back to me.
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I went with Spears because he has the most upside. He could have standalone RB2 value. He also has injury contingent upside in the event Tony Pollard gets hurt. Plus, what if the Titans’ offense is better than expected? There are a lot of ways things can break right for Spears. If they don’t, well, it’s a 10th round pick.
11.12) Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts drafted Adonai Mitchell. They will hopefully have Anthony Richardson for a full season. Michael Pittman Jr. is locked into a massive target share. All of these things suggest it will be difficult for Josh Downs to break out. However, Downs played well as a rookie and I like to bet on sophomore WRs. If IO’m wrong, I drop him.
12.01) Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints
The Saints didn’t do anything to improve their WR room. It’s Chris Olave as the WR1 and Rashid Shaheed as the WR2. Shaheed is a splash play specialist. He will have a couple of weeks where he posts 15+ points. I’ll take that at this point in the draft.
13.12) Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
I do not like Deshaun Watson at all. I don’t think the old Watson is ever coming back. But my starting QB is a rookie and it’s the last two rounds.
14.01) Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins
I need a tight end. Odds are, I will end up dropping whoever I take here anyway. Therefore, I might as well take the tight end with very little in his way to a significant snap share on one of the league’s most dynamic offenses. Perhaps Jonnu Smith can surprise us.
**The draft board says this pick was Ben Sinnott. I misclicked. It was supposed to be Smith, but by the time I noticed it, the draft was over and I could not edit it.
Here is the full draft board.
