After another long and eventful offseason, the 2024 NFL Kickoff Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens is almost here.
With the final week before kickoff for 2024 underway, we decided to use PFN’s Playoff Predictor to simulate the upcoming NFL season, and the results were shocking.
Today, we take a look at the simulation’s predictions for the AFC playoff picture.
Predicting the 2024 NFL Regular-Season Standings in the AFC
AFC East
- Buffalo Bills (10-7)
- New York Jets (9-8)
- Miami Dolphins (8-9)
- New England Patriots (8-9)
Despite losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis on offense and Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde on defense, the simulation still likes Buffalo to win its fifth straight AFC East title.
While the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots are all no more than two games behind the Bills, none of them will join the Bills in the playoffs.
The Jets are projected to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2015, but Aaron Rodgers won’t be able to snap the Jets’ playoff drought. Miami and New England are both projected to finish under .500 at 8-9, which means the Dolphins will take a step back by missing the playoffs, and the Patriots will show promise in their first season with Jerod Mayo as their head coach.
AFC North
- Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
- Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
- Cleveland Browns (9-8)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (5-12)
The AFC North was the first division since 1935 to have every team finish with a winning record in 2023. In this simulation, PFN’s Playoff Predictor likes three teams to finish with a winning record in 2024, but only the Ravens and Bengals will make the playoffs.
Even with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields in the Steelers’ quarterback room, Mike Tomlin will suffer his first losing season in his 18th campaign as the Steelers head coach.
AFC South
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5)
- Houston Texans (11-6)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
- Tennessee Titans (2-15)
The Jaguars looked poised to win their second straight AFC South title in 2023 after an 8-3 start, but a 1-5 finish cost them not only the AFC South but a playoff berth altogether. This season, the Jaguars reclaim the AFC South by winning 12 games for the first time since 2005.
MORE: Simulate the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor
After a tremendous rookie season leading the Texans to the AFC South title and playoff win, C.J. Stroud and the Texans will make it back to the playoffs as a Wild Card team in 2024.
The Colts, with a healthy Anthony Richardson, will finish just under .500, and the Titans will struggle mightily under first-year head coach Brian Callahan and second-year quarterback Will Levis.
AFC West
- Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
- Las Vegas Raiders (9-8)
- Denver Broncos (6-11)
Kansas City will win its ninth straight AFC West title in 2024, earning the AFC’s top seed in the playoffs as the Chiefs go for the first Super Bowl three-peat in NFL history.
Perhaps the bigger story, though, is the simulation having the Chargers make the playoffs in their first season with Jim Harbaugh as their head coach.
Harbaugh’s last stint in the NFL, with the 49ers, began with San Francisco going 13-3 in 2011 and going to the NFC Championship. With a healthy Justin Herbert, the Chargers will make the playoffs in 2024, according to the simulation.
Predicting the AFC Playoff Picture
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Baltimore Ravens
- Buffalo Bills
- Houston Texans
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Cincinnati Bengals
After only hosting one playoff game in 2023, Arrowhead Stadium is where the road to Super Bowl LIX will go through in 2024.
Jacksonville, with its highest playoff seed since 1999, will host Joe Burrow and the Bengals in what could be an exciting matchup.
But the biggest headline on Super Wild Card Weekend will be another Harbaugh Bowl, with the Chargers traveling to Baltimore to take on the Ravens.
Stroud and the Texans will travel north to face Josh Allen and the Bills in a classic warm weather vs. cold weather playoff matchup.
