With the 2022 NFL season over, we’re inching closer to the 2023 NFL Draft. In previous mocks, we’ve looked at a no-trade scenario and a pair of mocks with big trade-ups. In this iteration, we use the updated Pro Football Network Mock Draft Simulator rankings to break down a scenario where teams are a bit stingier with their picks.
2023 NFL Mock Draft Round 1
There are still a few trades, but this is what might happen if teams are a bit more likely to hold onto their picks than offer them up in trade. Though we don’t go into the details much here, all NFL draft trades were comparable on the Rich Hill Trade Value Chart, give or take 10%.
1) Indianapolis Colts: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
(TRADE: from Bears)
Trading into the first overall pick is expensive, and it is hard to overstate just how difficult it will be to bid for this pick. The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are likely to have the most firepower to nab the spot, and they’re in the same division, adding to the chances they bid against each other. Should the Colts win that battle, they could take a chance on the diminutive passer from Alabama.
MORE: 2023 NFL Draft Big Board
There isn’t a great track record of passers as slender as Bryce Young, who played in the 180s, but there are plenty of examples of quarterbacks as polished of a passer as he is doing well. The Colts have a long road ahead of them to get back into serious postseason contention, and picking up a talented signal-caller will make that road a lot easier to travel, showing a clear direction for the franchise.
2) Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
It’s often ironic when a win can feel like it hurts your team, but ending up picking second overall instead of first doesn’t do much to stop the Texans from getting a new passer to lead them into the future. C.J. Stroud has an excellent deep ball, and his ability to throw with anticipation is top of his class.
There are some concerns with how he handles pressure, but that is something that can be worked on as long as the Texans surround him with linemen who can pass protect and let him acclimate to the NFL.
3) Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
There were a lot of things wrong with the Cardinals in 2022, but their pass rush had to be chief among them. Managing to rank only 23rd in sacks on the year, the team is actually getting worse with J.J. Watt riding off into the sunset. A good way to turn that around quickly is taking a player like Will Anderson Jr.
Anderson has had one of the most productive careers of all time for a big program pass rusher, and he’s every bit as talented as his stats suggest. The Detroit Lions immediately improved their pass rush with Aiden Hutchinson in 2022, and Anderson is likely an even more gifted pass rusher. Also like the Lions, don’t be surprised if the Cardinals double dip at the position to really put forth their best effort to fix a glaring hole.
4) Chicago Bears: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
(TRADE: from Colts)
Considering how the first two picks would go in this type of scenario, the Chicago Bears don’t have their choice of Jalen Carter or Anderson, though both players would be in consideration for first overall.
General manager Ryan Poles wouldn’t hesitate to make the move to draft Carter with Anderson gone, immediately improving Chicago’s internal pass rush and run defense while adding a tone-setting interior lineman who seemed to effortlessly clown the SEC linemen he faced at the college level.
5) Seattle Seahawks (From DEN): Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
The Seattle Seahawks racked up a good volume of sacks in 2022, but they lacked any sense of a killer instinct in the passing game, with no one standing out as a top flight pass rusher you can build around. That changes with a pick like Myles Murphy, who is expected to light up the NFL Combine.
The Seahawks have learned the error of drafting a pass rusher who wasn’t an elite athlete after they took L.J. Collier, which is evidenced by literally every move they’ve made at the position since then.
6) Carolina Panthers: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
(TRADE: from Lions)
With many teams vying for top quarterbacks in 2023, we’re likely to see a few trade ups. Each of the next three teams, and arguably the Lions themselves, all need help at QB, making this pick a valuable one.
Lions GM Brad Holmes takes his pick of the bidders and walks away with even more picks to build with, while the Carolina Panthers take one of the highest-upside players in the class. Will Levis has some wrinkles he’ll need to work out, but new Panthers head coach Frank Reich is looking for stability at a position he’s seen little stability at by pulling in veterans and cast offs. It’s time to bring in his guy.
7) Las Vegas Raiders: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Josh McDaniels may be the butt of a few jokes if he takes a first round quarterback from Florida known more for his athleticism than his passing. It was that very thing, among a litany of other issues, that led to his downfall at his first head coaching gig in Denver.
In this case, however, he’s taking a player with some clear flaws, but more arm talent than he’s worked this side of Tom Brady. Anthony Richardson is far from a finished product, but he’s a lot farther along as a passer than he’s being given credit for. Banking on the upside here is the right call.
8) Atlanta Falcons: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
The Atlanta Falcons had the second-fewest sacks in 2022. They had the fewest in the league in 2021. You have to go back to 2017 to find a year they weren’t in the bottom half of the league. The team needs to get some semblance of a pass rush going, and they need to stop pretending it isn’t the biggest problem with their franchise.
Tyree Wilson has a more impactful Combine coming up than most, as his production doesn’t scream first round player, let alone top ten. If he tests like many are expecting, you’re banking on the upside of a top tier pass rusher for a team that hasn’t had one in what seems like forever.
9) Detroit Lions: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
(TRADE: from Panthers)
Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is returning after being passed over for several head coaching opportunities, which makes him best suited to fixing a defense that struggled over the past two seasons. Many Lions fans were clamoring for the team to take Sauce Gardner in 2022, but the Lions took the more popular choice in Aiden Hutchinson. It’s hard to fault them for it.
Christian Gonzalez is a tough, physical corner who uses his size and length well to deter quarterbacks from throwing his way. He improved his ball skills dramatically in 2022, hauling in 4 interceptions to go with 7 pass breakups.
10) Philadelphia Eagles (From NO): Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
The Eagles made the Super Bowl with an incredible pass rush and dynamic offense that had them leading the league until the final minutes the final game. One of the few things that they can improve on, to help push them over that finish line, is a defensive backfield that can stop players like Patrick Mahomes late in games.
Joey Porter Jr. would assist in that regard. Though he started out rough, few players improved over the course of their college career than Porter. With some coaching, he could be one of the better corners in the league in a very short time.
11) Tennessee Titans: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
No team has a reputation as bruisers like the Tennessee Titans. The team has spent its years under Mike Vrabel punching teams in the mouth, and that identity is a big part of who they are on both sides of the ball.
Paris Johnson Jr. will help them continue with that identity while addressing one of their biggest needs. Give the team some OL help to improve both passing and rush efficiency, and this is a different team in 2023.
12) Pittsburgh Steelers: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
(TRADE: from Texans)
The Pittsburgh Steelers need some protection for their new signal-caller, and they have an opportunity to get it without giving up a ton of resources here. With teams in front of them that need the same, Pittsburgh can move up by giving up their first- and third-round picks and receive this pick and a fourth-rounder in return.
Broderick Jones is a thickly built tackle with great length and power who can plug and play as a rookie. He’ll surely help Kenny Pickett further develop.
13) New York Jets: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Regardless of who the New York Jets end up with at quarterback, they’ll need to both do a better job of protecting him and make things easier for RB Breece Hall. Peter Skoronski isn’t the flashiest tackle, but if he has a strong Combine, he has the kind of tape that will see him starting in the NFL for a long time.
He’s a bit like Lions left tackle Taylor Decker in that, while he has wrinkles coming out of college, they all look correctable with relatively little investment in time and coaching.
14) New England Patriots: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Mac Jones had an excellent rookie campaign, but it was pretty clear his limitations as an athlete and passer would require the team to do whatever they could to make things easier for him if they want sustained success.
A new lineman would go a long way, but finding a playmaker like Jordan Addison, who can line up anywhere, is a threat to take the top off of a defense, and can run after the catch with the best of them, would give the offense a dynamic element it currently lacks.
15) Green Bay Packers: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
It seems almost unfair for the Green Bay Packers to land Quentin Johnston after they drafted Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, but the embarrassment of riches would allow the team to concentrate all of their efforts elsewhere for several years.
Johnston is expected to test among the best height/weight/speed players at the Combine, similar to Watson last season. Putting both on the field at the same time would be nearly impossible to defend, as long as their quarterback is even somewhat competent. Similarly to Watson, Johnston had issues with drops in college. Similarly to Watson, that probably won’t matter.
16) Washington Commanders: O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
The Washington Commanders would love to walk out of the first round with a quarterback, but there just isn’t someone worth taking with this pick. Instead, the team should take the best-player-that-fills-a need-approach, and O’Cyrus Torrence fits that bill.
The draft’s best true guard would immediately boost an offense that has to face the Eagles’ monstrous pass rush twice a season, and an improvement to the run game would help mitigate the lack of a premier QB.
17) Houston Texans: John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota
(TRADE: from Steelers)
Teams that have multiple first-round picks, and also need a QB, tend to use their second pick to either find a “quarterback of the defense” or to give their QB a tool to be successful as they build the franchise. The Texans choose the latter here, but instead of a weapon, they give him a shield.
MORE: 2023 Center Draft Class
John Michael Schmitz has some of the best lateral mobility in the class and is adept at identifying blockers both immediately and on delayed blitzes. He’s a natural center, but would work well at either guard spot if needed and provide close to the same value.
18) Detroit Lions: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
After years of putting it on the back burner, the Lions seem to have figured out that blazing speed gives your team a huge advantage on offense. Bringing in Jameson Williams last season and a player like Jalin Hyatt in 2023 would give them an edge by forcing opposing safeties to stay off the line.
This has a dual benefit of allowing their creative play caller, Ben Johnson, carte blanche to call whatever new run designs he’s thought of that week.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
One of the broadest blockers we’ve ever seen is coming to the Combine in 2023. Dawand Jones’ massive wingspan and athleticism relative to his size make him a very difficult assignment for pass rushers.
Even if the Combine doesn’t go his way, teams may have learned from Orlando Brown just how well this kind of length can be utilized on either side of an offense, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will need some protection while they figure out who their quarterback will be.
20) Seattle Seahawks: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
Improving the pass rush is a big step in the right direction, but the Seahawks have to make even more bold moves to improve that side of the ball if they want to compete with the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West. Having taken one of the most explosive EDGE in the class with their first pick, Seattle takes one of the most explosive safeties with their other.
Brian Branch has good range, but his real strength lies in the ability to go from any point on the field, moving in any direction, to full speed in a different direction the moment he chooses to. If Murphy is causing quarterbacks to make mistakes, Branch can capitalize.
21) Los Angeles Chargers: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
Sebastian Joseph-Day led the Chargers interior linemen in sacks with only 2.0. While the team has plenty of ways they can improve their interior pass rush, drafting a top-flight athlete with excellent tape is at the peak of that list.
Bryan Bresee boasts an elite jump off the ball that makes him a terror to interior pass blockers. His ability to time his snap and beat his man early is tough to game plan for, and putting him alongside Khalil Mack would give opposing coordinators nightmares.
22) Baltimore Ravens: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Every year, the Baltimore Ravens wait for a player to fall to them, either because teams were wary of the player’s usage or the player didn’t test as well as others. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is likely to be among the latter, as the Combine is expected to be a real test of his draft value.
Even an average performance in drills would likely see his stock rise too high for him to land in Baltimore, but in this case, we expect the former Buckeye to be here. Smith-Njigba is one of the best route runners in the class, and his ability to find weaknesses in opposing coverages allowed the Ohio State offense to thrive when he was on the field.
23) Minnesota Vikings: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
In the Minnesota Vikings’ seemingly endless quest to find a quality secondary, enter: Devon Witherspoon. Aggressive in the best way on the field, Witherspoon has that confident swagger you look for in a starting defensive back, and I’d expect him to crush interviews at the Combine next week.
He isn’t the biggest corner, but he isn’t undersized, and his relative athleticism compared to the receivers he’s facing tends to show up on the field.
24) Jacksonville Jaguars: Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
While Michael Mayer may be getting all the hype at tight end in this class, I think the NFL Combine could shift that narrative if he and Luke Musgrave test as I expect them to.
Musgrave appears to have all the athletic tools that you want from elite tight ends like Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Given the importance of that type of weapon finding new life in the league, I would expect Musgrave to be in contention for an early selection. Jacksonville gets a shot in the arm on offense with this selection.
25) New York Giants: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
Sometimes, you just need a guy to come in and add some character to your team. Sometimes, you add a player because of their talent, and you just get that character as a bonus. Cam Smith to the Giants would be a combination of those things.
New York gets a player who can cover in both man and zone and appears to have the requisite athleticism to challenge opposing receivers every play. His ability to get under the skin of the guys he’s facing is a huge selling point too. If you haven’t heard the term ‘chirpy’ in regards to a corner, just watch Cam Smith for more than a play or two, and you’ll see it.
26) Dallas Cowboys: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
While the Combine is likely to give teams a glimpse into why Kelee Ringo is such an enticing player from an athletic standpoint, it’s also likely to let people know why he’s been falling in recent projections.
Ringo is an incredible athlete, but he’s a bit stiff hipped at times, and some even consider him a safety rather than corner. Regardless of where you project him, the Dallas Cowboys could use an athlete of his caliber who has shown consistent production in a top program.
27) Buffalo Bills: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
While Dawson Knox has shown reasonable production lately, culminating in his first Pro Bowl honors in 2022 as a replacement for Travis Kelce, I can’t help but imagine a two-tight end offense in Buffalo with Michael Mayer flanking Knox.
Teams already have to plan for Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, but if you throw in a player who has shown he can be supremely productive in Mayer alongside Knox and Gabe Davis, how will anyone defend this offense? Linebackers and safeties won’t last three quarters trying to chase everyone down.
28) Cincinnati Bengals: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
The Cincinnati Bengals have been one of the best teams in the NFL for the past few years, but it seems like offensive lineman is always a need for them. Part of the reason is how little they’ve valued athleticism on that line, a trend that has to change if they want to both remain competitive and win those last couple games against top competition.
Anton Harrison is an explosive lineman with promising athletic traits, exactly the kind of player they should consider bringing in to add additional oomph to the front-five.
29) New Orleans Saints (From SF via MIA via DEN): Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
An increasingly common trend for teams lately is adding tons of speed to their offense, making it difficult to defend deep and making every throw a possible long TD. Chris Olave was one of the best rookies in the NFL in 2022, and while I’m sure the New Orleans Saints would like to add a QB, there simply isn’t one to take at this point in the draft.
Instead, the Saints double down on speed and give Olave a running mate in Kayshon Boutte. That much speed is sure to cause problems, and for New Orleans fans, those are good problems to have.
30) Philadelphia Eagles: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Miles Sanders had a career year in 2022, as did many Eagles. Heading into the 2023 offseason, the team doesn’t have a lot of top-tier needs, but Sanders’ production is a lot to replace. So why not add the best RB prospect in several years into the mix?
Bijan Robinson is deserving of being drafted so much higher than this, but most teams simply have more glaring holes than running back that need to be filled. This allows the Eagles to prime their 2023 Super Bowl run with jet fuel and draft a back who can run any play, best any linebacker in space, and barrel over any unfortunate defensive back tasked with tackling him.
31) Kansas City Chiefs: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M
With Juan Thornhill and Orlando Brown being free agents, the Chiefs will have some options as to which side of the ball to address first. Here, they likely bring back Brown and use their draft resources to solidify a defense that was good, but not great for much of 2022.
MORE: Kansas City Chiefs 2023 NFL Mock Draft
Antonio Johnson can play off the ball and inside at nickel, showcasing top tier range and explosiveness that make him dangerously unpredictable for opposing playcallers on any given play.
2023 NFL Mock Draft Round 2
For the second and third rounds here, we added extra analysis on those teams that were without a first-round pick.
32) Pittsburgh Steelers: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
33) Houston Texans: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
34) Arizona Cardinals: Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame
35) Chicago Bears: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee (trade: from Colts)
36) Los Angeles Rams: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
I’m going to assume that Matthew Stafford is not only returning, but that he’ll be healthy enough to play at the high level he did during the Los Angeles Rams’ Super Bowl run. With that in mind, and harkening back to his time in Detroit, I think he could use the sort of playmaking weapon that Darnell Washington can be.
While Washington wasn’t super productive for Georgia, he is expected to show the type of athletic upside at the Combine that quarterbacks and offensive coordinators prize in the NFL. Stafford broke nearly every record in Detroit, including helping his tight end teammates break team records at the position, despite not really having the best of options to choose from. Give him someone with real athletic ability, and watch him thrive.
37) Detroit Lions: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee (trade: from Seahawks)
38) Las Vegas Raiders: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah
39) Carolina Panthers: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
40) New Orleans Saints: JL Skinner, S, Boise State
41) Tennessee Titans: Henry To’oTo’o, LB, Alabama
42) Cleveland Browns: Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor
The Cleveland Browns are likely hoping their offensive struggles can be chalked up primarily due to injuries and the whole Deshaun Watson situation, so focusing on defense should be a chief concern.
Siaki Ika is the rare big man who has no business moving as well as he does, as fast as he does, in the ways that he does. The Combine is likely to be an eye opener for those who haven’t seen him play, and I think his addition to the Browns line would be just as eye opening.
43) New England Patriots: BJ Ojulari, EDGE, LSU (trade: from Jets)
44) Atlanta Falcons: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State
45) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama (trade: from Packers)
46) New York Jets: Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas (trade: from Patriots)
47) Washington Commanders: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
48) Detroit Lions: Christopher Smith, S, Georgia
49) Pittsburgh Steelers: Gervon Dexter, DT, Florida
50) Green Bay Packers: Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech (trade: from Buccaneers)
51) Miami Dolphins: Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota State
The Miami Dolphins have been a bit of a work in progress along their offensive line, but they’ve shown that when they are all on the same page, this offense can roll over most defenses.
Adding a player like Cody Mauch, who has been shooting up draft boards as folks are finally getting to his tape, would go a long way to keeping this offense productive. The system thrives on speed, and an explosive tackle like Mauch would help Tua Tagovailoa buy the time he needs to make the offense hum.
52) Seattle Seahawks: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
53) Chicago Bears: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
54) Dallas Cowboys: Tuli Tuipulotu, EDGE, USC (trade: from Chargers)
55) Detroit Lions: Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon
56) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jarrett Patterson, OG, Notre Dame
57) New York Giants: Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma
58) Los Angeles Chargers: Rashee Rice, WR, SMU (trade: from Cowboys)
59) Kansas City Chiefs: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia (trade: from Bills)
60) Cincinnati Bengals: Derick Hall, EDGE, Auburn
61) Detroit Lions: Zach Evans, RB, Ole Miss (trade: from Panthers)
62) Philadelphia Eagles: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
63) Buffalo Bills: Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA (trade: from Chiefs)
2023 NFL Mock Draft Round 3
64) Chicago Bears: Andre Carter II, EDGE, Army
65) Houston Texans: Calijah Kancey, DL, Pittsburgh
66) Arizona Cardinals: Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami
67) Denver Broncos: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland
68) Denver Broncos: Ivan Pace Jr., LB, Cincinnati
69) Los Angeles Rams: Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama
70) Las Vegas Raiders: Jordan Battle, S, Alabama
71) New Orleans Saints: Steve Avila, G, TCU
72) Tennessee Titans: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee
73) Houston Texans: Isaiah Land, EDGE, Florida A&M
74) Green Bay Packers: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah (trade: from Jets)
75) Atlanta Falcons: Warren McClendon, OT, Georgia
76) New England Patriots: Owen Pappoe, LB, Auburn
77) Miami Dolphins: Brandon Joseph, S, Notre Dame
78) New York Jets: Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin (trade: from Packers)
79) Indianapolis Colts: Trey Palmer, WR, Nebraska
80) Houston Texans: Jaylon Jones, CB, Texas A&M (trade: from Steelers)
81) Carolina Panthers: Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn (trade: from Lions)
82) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
83) Seattle Seahawks: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M
84) Miami Dolphins: Kyu Blu Kelly, CB, Stanford
85) Los Angeles Chargers: Blake Freeland, OT, BYU
86) Baltimore Ravens: Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State
87) Minnesota Vikings: A.T. Perry, WR, Wake Forest
88) Jacksonville Jaguars: Sydney Brown, S, Illinois
89) New York Giants: Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State
90) Dallas Cowboys: Byron Young, DT, Alabama
91) Buffalo Bills: DJ Turner, CB, Michigan
92) Cincinnati Bengals: DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Texas
93) Detroit Lions: Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina (trade: from Panthers)
94) Philadelphia Eagles: Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
95) Kansas City Chiefs: Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse
96) Arizona Cardinals: Luke Wypler, IOL, Ohio State
97) Washington Commanders: Adetomiwa Adebawore, EDGE, Northwestern
98) Cleveland Browns: Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State
99) San Francisco 49ers: Carter Warren, OT, Pittsburgh
Missing out on the top-shelf players in the class, the 49ers have the consolation of having three picks at the end of the third round, giving some flexibility in their planning.
In this case, the team opts to beef up their offensive line with Carter Warren and Ricky Stromberg, while adding a speedy weapon in Jayden Reed for whomever their signal-caller is to start 2023. Getting some protection is key, and having an added weapon will help the team get their offense up to the standard set by the other side of the ball.
100) San Francisco 49ers: Ricky Stromberg, C, Arkansas
101) San Francisco 49ers: Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State
102) New York Giants: Jammie Robinson, S, Florida State