The top of the 2023 NFL Draft order was already shaken up when the Carolina Panthers acquired the No. 1 overall pick from the Chicago Bears in a March trade, and there will assuredly be more deals made during Round 1.
Nine trades took place during the first round of the 2022 draft. Veterans like A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown found new homes, while teams moved up to draft prospects such as Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Jordan Davis, and Trent McDuffie.
Which teams could be motivated to make a trade in the first round of the 2023 draft? Let’s highlight the organizations that may aim to move up or down the board on draft night.
2023 NFL Draft | Trade Up Candidates
Indianapolis Colts (No. 4)
The Colts were the team hurt the most by the Panthers’ acquisition of the first overall selection. Indianapolis has gone through a turnstile of quarterbacks in recent seasons, with Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Philip Rivers, Jacoby Brissett, and Andrew Luck among the veteran passers deployed by the Colts over the past five years.
Indy likely wants to hop off that carousel, but they might only have the chance to land the draft’s fourth-best quarterback barring a trade-up. Carolina and Houston are nearly guaranteed to draft signal-callers at No. 1 and No. 2, while the Cardinals at No. 3 could trade their slot to another QB-needy team.
The Colts may want to explore swapping selections with Arizona. Moving up just one spot probably wouldn’t require all that much compensation, and Indianapolis would at least give itself options. If C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young go first and second, the Colts would have a choice between Anthony Richardson or Will Levis instead of being locked into a single option.
Las Vegas Raiders (No. 7)
The Cardinals’ No. 3 pick may also be of interest to the Raiders, who signed Jimmy Garoppolo as a stop-gap option this offseason but are still searching for a long-term answer under center.
Garoppolo inked a three-year deal with Las Vegas, but it’s really more of a one-year, $33.75 million pact with two club options tacked on in 2024 and 2025. While Garoppolo has familiarity with Raiders decision-makers — Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler — thanks to their shared time in New England, he’ll turn 32 years old during the 2023 campaign and doesn’t offer the upside that a first-round prospect in the upcoming draft could.
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“I think if you have the opportunity where you have a guy that’s on a rookie deal, and he’s your guy, and he’s playing for you, and he’s a guy you feel that you can win football games with, there is an element of capitalizing on that, especially with where quarterback salaries are going, and the guarantees and things like that,” Ziegler told The Athletic in February.
Ziegler and McDaniels weren’t afraid to make a significant trade for Davante Adams last year, and another big move — this time for a young quarterback — shouldn’t be out of the question in 2023. The Raiders have met with Stroud, Young, Richardson, and Levis in advance of the draft.
Tennessee Titans (No. 11)
It’s fair to wonder whether the Titans should trade up in the first round of the 2023 draft. Tennessee has needs all over its roster, and a path to contention in the AFC appears treacherous, given the presence of the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, and other competitive squads.
Whether the Titans will trade up is a separate question.
“Can I give you the team that I have been told to keep an eye on that’s exploring this and looking into this?” NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah said this week. “Again, this is just people around the league who said do not sleep on numero 11: the Tennessee Titans.”
If the Titans want to move up to No. 3, they’d likely have to sacrifice a package close to what the 49ers paid to move from No. 12 to No. 3 in the 2021 draft — a swap of firsts, two future first-rounders, and a third. That feels like a lot to give up for a team that isn’t just a quarterback away, but Tennessee may be considering a move.
Houston Texans (No. 12)
The Texans seem locked in on a quarterback at No. 2 overall, but Peter King of NBC Sports floated an alternative idea for Houston this week. Nick Caserio and Co. could select Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. with the second pick, then use their ample draft ammunition to move back up for a quarterback within the top 10.
Houston has the capital to make this work. Thanks to the Deshaun Watson trade, the Texans have four picks in the top 65 and six in the top 104, giving them the wherewithal to move up and down the draft board.
But this scenario feels like a lot of mental gymnastics when the Texans could simply stand pat and draft a quarterback at No. 2. The expected return from a theoretical combination of Young and edge rusher Tyree Wilson isn’t all that different from, say, an Anderson/Levis pairing. Houston has no reason to sacrifice extra draft assets only to end up with a similar result.
New England Patriots (No. 14)
While the Patriots drafted Mac Jones 15th overall just two years ago, his status with the club appears murky. Reports have indicated that New England has shopped Jones around the league. Additionally, broadcaster Dan Patrick suggested this week that the Patriots’ locker room is split between Jones and Bailey Zappe, who started two games as a fourth-round rookie in 2022.
If Bill Belichick doesn’t feel Jones can help New England become a regular playoff contender again, the 2023 draft could afford the Pats an opportunity to find another passer. While New England may not feel comfortable moving all the way to No. 3, they could conceivably jump a few spots if one of the top quarterbacks begins to fall.
Belichick turns 71 years old later this month. He won’t be the Patriots’ head coach forever. While Belichick has spent the majority of his career trading down in drafts and stockpiling assets for future years, it might be time for him to go all-in and take another shot at finding Tom Brady’s long-term successor.
Minnesota Vikings (No. 23)
Kirk Cousins is entering the final year of his contract, and the Vikings reportedly declined Cousins’ offseason overture of a three-year, fully guaranteed extension. Minnesota restructured Cousins’ deal to create cap space, but he’s still scheduled to reach free agency next offseason.
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Thus, the Vikings could be in a position to target a quarterback in this year’s draft. While Minnesota could stand pat and draft a second-tier option like Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker at No. 23, it might also consider moving up for one of the top four passers.
I wouldn’t expect the Vikings to be willing to sacrifice too many future assets to trade up, which could make a move into the top 10 a non-starter. But if Richardson or Levis slipped outside the first 10 picks, Minnesota could begin to assess how much it would cost to move up.
2023 NFL Draft | Trade Down Candidates
Arizona Cardinals (No. 3)
We’ve already mentioned the Cardinals’ No. 3 selection as a potential prize for a number of teams. Arizona drafted Kyler Murray in 2019 and extended him in 2022, so they don’t need a quarterback.
Sure, the Cardinals could stick at No. 3 and take Anderson or another high-end defensive prospect, but Arizona is hardly an edge rusher away from contention. On paper, the Cardinals have one of the worst rosters in the NFL, so they need to take a quantity-based approach to the draft and grab as many bites of the apple as possible.
First-year general manager Monti Ossenfort and head coach Jonathan Gannon should have plenty of job security to afford to look to the future. If they can find a team desperate enough to sacrifice one or more future first-rounders for the right to move to No. 3, they should take it.
New York Jets (No. 13)
It’s been more than three weeks since Aaron Rodgers announced his intention to play for the Jets, but a trade between New York and Green Bay still hasn’t been worked out.
Gang Green seems reticent to give up the No. 13 pick for Rodgers. However, they could be willing to trade one or both of their second-rounders or a future first-round selection. In either case, general manager Joe Douglas could trade back in the 2023 draft and acquire more picks to help offset the cost of eventually acquiring Rodgers.
New York needs offensive line help, and it could be in a prime position to land a prospect like Paris Johnson Jr., Peter Skoronski, or Broderick Jones at 13th overall. But eschewing those players in favor of moving back has to be on the Jets’ mind.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 19)
During the Tom Brady era, the Buccaneers pushed all their chips in and walked away with a Super Bowl victory. Tampa Bay wouldn’t change anything about how it conducted business over the past few years, but the club is now reaping what it sowed.
MORE: 2023 NFL Draft Big Board
The Bucs have a cap-strapped roster and only Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield under center. Could Tampa Bay make a play up the board for a quarterback in 2023? Maybe, but that doesn’t seem feasible for a roster that needs to be retooled.
Instead, general manager Jason Licht should consider trading back from No. 19 into the latter portion of Round 1. Adding an extra Day 2 selection would give Tampa Bay another young player on a cost-controlled rookie contract and help the team eventually move past its financial burdens.
New Orleans Saints (No. 29)
I know, I know — this is probably a pipe dream. The Saints rarely consider future implications in their team-building process. Last year, they made two trades and gave up a haul of picks to move up for Olave and left tackle Trevor Penning. This year, New Orleans has again restructured nearly every veteran contract on its books and brought itself to the financial brink.
Trading back doesn’t seem to be an option on the Saints’ play sheet. But New Orleans has a veteran-laden, top-heavy roster. They need youthful contributors to provide cheap depth, and the only place to find those players is in the draft. Moving back would also help the Saints recoup their 2024 second-round pick, which they’ve already traded to the Eagles.