Who leads the Heisman odds race after a tumultuous Week 8 slate? Favorites like Michael Penix Jr. and Jayden Daniels are in the running, but a new leader has emerged on the heels of a dominant showing against a conference opponent.
J.J. McCarthy Surges Into the Lead in the Heisman Odds Race
No QB performance was more dominant in Week 8 than J.J. McCarthy‘s showing against the hapless Michigan State secondary. What was once a rivalry has turned into a yearly drubbing, and McCarthy was the ringleader on Saturday.
In a 49-0 rout of the Spartans, McCarthy completed 21 of 27 passes for 287 yards and four touchdowns. There’s no other word we can use besides “immaculate” for McCarthy’s Saturday showcase.
McCarthy ripped tight-window lasers left and right against Michigan State, routinely capitalizing on the defense’s lack of eye discipline. Even when Michigan was up, he still took calculated risks and piled it on until the Wolverines sent in the backups in the third quarter.
The Wolverines are now 8-0 — one of two undefeated teams remaining in the Big Ten — and McCarthy has completed 132 of 169 pass attempts (78.1%) for 1,799 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just three interceptions.
McCarthy has produced at a massive volume clip, and he’s done so with unmatched passing efficiency as well. In the process, he’s kept his team undefeated, with hopes of a conference title and a playoff run alive.
Suffice it to say, McCarthy is the front-runner in the Heisman odds race at +180, rising from +1000 in Week 7.
The only argument you can make against McCarthy — for the time being — is that the Wolverines haven’t been tested yet, which is a fair argument to make. The combined record of Michigan’s opponents to this point is 30-29. Take out 6-1 UNLV, and that drops below .500 to 24-28.
The Wolverines have beaten every opponent they’ve played by at least 25 points. Their last four games have featured margins of 38, 42, 45, and 49 points, respectively.
So yes, McCarthy and the Wolverines have been dominant. But they’ve also played the exact types of opponents they are built to dominate.
Two of McCarthy’s biggest tests come in the final three weeks of the season. On Nov. 11, Michigan plays the Penn State Nittany Lions in Happy Valley, who will no doubt be aiming to rebound after a loss to Ohio State this week.
Two weeks later, on the eve of conference championship season — Nov. 25 — McCarthy and the Wolverines square off against Ohio State in Ann Arbor.
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As good as we know McCarthy is, we haven’t seen a hint of him in that kind of high-pressure environment yet this year. And we haven’t seen him elevate his team over another highly-ranked opponent in an implication game the way Penix did in Week 7.
McCarthy is the Heisman leader right now, but those two games alone will truly decide how real his Heisman hopes are.
Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Jr., and Drake Maye Sputter
It wasn’t just McCarthy’s brilliant performance in Week 8 that caused his dramatic ascent up the Heisman board, however. It also took a resoundingly bad week from other top Heisman contenders to cause the sudden swing.
Caleb Williams and Drake Maye both suffered disappointing losses. Williams’ Trojans fell to the Utah Utes on a last-second field goal, seeing their playoff hopes crumble in the moment.
Maye, meanwhile, completed around just 50% of his passes in a shoddy showing of accuracy and ended up throwing the game-losing pick against a 1-5 Virginia team when a pass rusher deflected an attempted throw from behind.
Michael Penix Jr. — the top Heisman contender for two weeks running heading into Week 8 — at least got the win, but it was a tepid 15-7 victory over a 1-5 Arizona State squad, in which he threw two bad interceptions.
Williams’ hopes at a repeat Heisman victory are dashed. And while Penix and Maye were riding high after Week 7 — securing crucial wins against conference rivals to stay undefeated — they’re starting to fall now, too.
Penix is still right there at +300, but he’s now fallen behind McCarthy. Meanwhile, Maye and Williams are virtually out of the race. Maye is down to +5000 after his Week 8 loss, while Williams toils at +6000.
Does Marvin Harrison Jr. Have a Chance To Be a Heisman Winner?
There’s one non-quarterback who stands above the rest in the Heisman odds race: Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
It comes as no surprise. On the 2024 NFL Draft circuit, Harrison — the son of Hall of Fame WR Marvin Harrison Sr. — has been labeled as a potentially generational prospect with his athleticism, refinement, and playmaking ability at 6’4″, 205 pounds.
But now, in one of the two biggest games of the regular season for Ohio State, Harrison Jr. single-handedly brought his team to victory.
In a 20-12 win over Penn State, Harrison caught 11 passes for 162 yards and a game-winning touchdown. He went up against fellow first-round 2024 NFL Draft prospect Kalen King and was still untouchable in coverage.
Harrison constantly generated separation. He made plays at the catch point, moved the sticks, and routinely made drive-sustaining grabs. And when Ohio State needed to ice the game, it was Harrison who they relied on, using his speed to seal the deal.
There’s a very strong case to be made that if the Buckeyes don’t have Harrison, they lose this game. Harrison not only drew attention from the defense, but whenever the Buckeyes went to him, he delivered in spite of that constant attention. That’s the mark of a Heisman contender.
After a dominant performance against a top-10 team that helped keep his squad undefeated, Harrison is now seventh in the Heisman odds, listed at +3000. The scales are often naturally tilted against non-QBs, but Harrison has as good a chance as any receiver since DeVonta Smith.
If he can be the engine behind a team win against Michigan on Nov. 25 — similar to how he appeared against Penn State — that would be a massive head-to-head implication game. In one fell swoop, he’d outplay top Heisman contender McCarthy and keep his team undefeated.
That’s a long way in the future right now. But after seeing how Harrison has produced — especially in big games — it’s hard to argue that he isn’t the best player in college football. Ultimately, that’s what the Heisman award is all about.
Other non-quarterbacks listed in the Heisman odds race include Michigan RB Blake Corum (+9000), Washington WR Rome Odunze (+10000), Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon II (+10000), Notre Dame RB Audric Estimé (+12000), and Missouri WR Luther Burden III (+15000).
