The 2022 fantasy football season has come to a close. I want to congratulate all the champions out there, but it’s definitely a bittersweet feeling, given the way the season ended with the terrifying Damar Hamlin situation. We continue to send positive vibes Hamlin’s way and keep him in our thoughts.
While the majority of fantasy gamers check out until summertime, before you put fantasy football on the back burner, let’s take a very early look at what the first few rounds of 2023 drafts might look like. Here is our very first way-too-early 2023 fantasy football mock draft.
Fantasy Football Mock Draft
1.01 Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
The insanely gifted third-year wide receiver truly ascended in 2022. Justin Jefferson finished as the overall WR1, averaging 22.6 PPR fantasy points per game. With wide receivers being far more predictable than running backs, Jefferson gets the nod as the top pick in 2023 fantasy football drafts.
1.02 Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
I was told two things about Christian McCaffrey. First, you can’t draft him because he’s “injury prone.” Second, the trade to San Francisco was going to hurt his fantasy value.
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First, you cannot predict injury. It shouldn’t even be a data point when preparing for drafts. Second, McCaffrey averaged 22.2 ppg with the San Francisco 49ers against 19.7 with the Carolina Panthers. He was the overall RB2, trailing Austin Ekeler by 1.5 ppg. Given McCaffrey’s track record, he gets the slight edge for me.
1.03 Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
2022’s overall RB1 comes in next. Austin Ekeler may be 28 years old next season, but he’s shown exactly zero signs of decline. Tethered to an elite quarterback on an elite offense, there’s no reason to doubt Ekeler can post another season of 20 ppg in 2023.
1.04 Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
I remember when I was gifted Tyreek Hill in the third round in both 2017 and 2018 fantasy drafts. After 2018, everyone accepted Hill as elite. I assumed I’d never get that price again.
Well, fantasy managers gave Hill an ADP in the late second round in 2022 fantasy drafts. All he did was average 21.4 ppg, just 0.5 ppg off the best season of his career. He finished as the overall WR2, which is exactly where he should go next season.
1.05 Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
We are going to see a shift the likes of which we haven’t seen since 2016 when Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham Jr. were the consensus top three picks. 2023 will be very wide receiver-heavy early on.
Ja’Marr Chase will be 23 years old next season and just averaged 20 ppg in his second season. He’s got a top-five quarterback throwing him passes in an elite offense. 20 ppg feels like Chase’s floor. I have him above some of the other elite receivers because he is still getting better.
1.06 Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
I’m a little weary of Cooper Kupp entering the 2023 season. He will be 30 years old and coming off a serious ankle injury. While Matthew Stafford will be back, this Rams’ offensive line isn’t getting any better.
With that said, Kupp is still the surest thing in all of fantasy when healthy. He averaged 22.4 ppg in his nine games played, which included a game without Stafford, where he scored 2.9 points before getting hurt. As long as Stafford and Kupp are healthy, Kupp remains the best wide receiver in fantasy.
1.07 Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
So many of the elite receivers are at or pushing 30 years old. Eventually, they will start to fall off. Fortunately, Stefon Diggs has an Antonio Brown-like skill set that will likely age very well. I think he can remain elite well into his early 30s. He will play nearly all of next season at 29 years old. He’s got plenty left in the tank.
Diggs averaged 18.6 ppg in 2022. He remains the WR1 for the second-best quarterback in football. No need to overthink it. Diggs is a sure thing.
1.08 CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Last season, CeeDee Lamb’s expected ascension was baked into his ADP. Even with Dak Prescott missing five games, Lamb was worth it. Lamb has improved each year of his career. He averaged 17.8 ppg, finishing as the overall WR7.
More indicative of what we can expect next season is Lamb’s performance after Prescott returned from injury. Prescott returned in Week 7 but was eased back in. Week 8 was when Prescott started to look like himself, and from that point on, Lamb averaged 20.8 ppg. He’s an elite WR1, and you can make an argument for him to go ahead of Diggs and Kupp.
1.09 Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
After what Davante Adams did against the San Francisco 49ers’ elite defense with Jarrett Stidham, I’m confident in calling him QB-proof.
Adams finished as the overall WR3, averaging 20.2 ppg. He just turned 30 years old but has shown exactly zero signs of decline. I think he’s got at least two more elite seasons in him. Depending on who plays quarterback for the Raiders next season, Adams could end up even higher.
1.10 Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
I don’t know what scares me more: taking a soon-to-be 34-year-old tight end in the first round of fantasy drafts or being forced to start a tight end not named Travis Kelce.
We have literally never seen dominance at the position quite like Kelce. Sure, we had Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, and Rob Gronkowski, but none of them were as elite as Kelce for as long while never getting hurt. Kelce has also shown no signs of slowing down. I’m willing to roll the dice on the top target of the most talented quarterback in NFL history for at least one more year.
1.11 Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
My sources tell me I have to include more running backs. I really don’t want to. It’s not that Saquon Barkley isn’t great, but rather he’s only here because he plays running back.
The actual fantasy point output from Barkley (17.8 ppg) is quite literally the worst from the overall RB2 in NFL history (and by history, I mean since 2000, since that’s as far back as I checked).
Nevertheless, Barkley has the talent and the role to be an elite running back. He doesn’t give you anywhere near the edge you’d want from a first-round running back, but at least the upside is there.
1.12 Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
I don’t know who will be playing quarterback in Indy or coaching the Colts next season, but I do know those men are not currently on the team. Hopefully, they will be significant improvements (it really can’t be worse).
Jonathan Taylor averaged 13.3 ppg as one of the biggest first-overall pick busts in fantasy history. But he’s just too talented and has too good of a role to drop any lower than this.
Injuries and the collapse of this offense played a big role. We know his ceiling is the overall RB1, so he’s worth selecting at this point.
2.01 Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
I have no idea how much longer Derrick Henry can keep this up. The man is a machine. He’s also amassed 1,846 career touches and is now 29 years old.
Shaun Alexander won MVP in 2005 at age 28. In 2006, he was a middling RB2, averaging 14.8 ppg. By 2007, he was done, and he retired after the 2008 season.
I’m not saying Henry will fall off a cliff in 2023, but I am saying he will fall off a cliff within the next 1-3 years. When it happens, it will be steep. Henry is likely going to be fine for 2023, but I’d rather be out a year too early than a year too late.
2.02 A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Similar to Lamb, A.J. Brown also ascended to the ranks of the elite in 2022. Brown averaged 17.9 ppg, finishing as the overall WR6. His connection with Jalen Hurts was undeniable.
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As the elite WR1 of one of the league’s best offenses, at worst, Brown should be able to replicate his 2022 season in 2023. At best, he cracks the 20 ppg threshold.
2.03 Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Don’t let the 12.3 ppg fool you, Travis Etienne Jr. was a monster in his first full NFL season. Etienne recorded four weeks with RB1 finishes, and he was used as a three-down back in every game from Week 7 onward.
With Trevor Lawrence figuring it out and showing signs of being the elite prospect he was drafted as, this Jaguars’ offense should be even better in 2023. Etienne’s touchdown upside is sky-high.
2.04 Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
15.9 ppg is lower than you’d expect from the overall RB8, but Joe Mixon’s role is undeniable. He’s the lead back in an elite offense tethered to a top-five quarterback in Joe Burrow. Mixon should once again be an RB1 in 2023.
2.05 Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
It’s very difficult to figure out where to put Josh Jacobs. Hence, the “way-too-early” part of this mock.
In 2022, Jacobs proved to be far more talented than I ever gave him credit for. As a true three-down back, he averaged 20.1 ppg, finishing as the overall RB3.
Unfortunately, we have two huge questions clouding Jacobs’ future. Who will be the Raiders’ quarterback in 2023? Will Jacobs even be on the team? Without answers to these questions, Jacobs’ spot here is kind of a placeholder. Wherever he ends up, though, rest assured he will have a prominent role.
2.06 Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Entering the 2022 season, the consensus wasn’t sure whether Amon-Ra St. Brown’s absurd finish to his rookie season was due to his talent or a product of there just being no one else to throw to.
While the answer was undoubtedly both, in 2022, St. Brown proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is, in fact, talented. He averaged 17.1 ppg and was one of the most valuable selections in all of fantasy.
The Lions’ offense is trending upward. Jared Goff will likely be back as the starter next season. St. Brown is a fantasy WR1 and well worth a second-round pick.
2.07 Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
When asked what name he prefers, Kenneth Walker III said, “Ken is good.” He is correct. Ken is good… very good at the game of football.
In his 10 games following Rashaad Penny’s season-ending injury, Walker averaged 16.1 ppg. Those numbers over a full season would’ve made him the overall RB7.
Regardless of Penny’s health, this is Walker’s backfield now. He’s a fantasy RB1.
2.08 Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Folks, the late-round QB is officially dead and buried. We are going to see three quarterbacks off the board within the first 30 picks in the vast majority of 2023 drafts. Another two will likely be gone by the end of round four.
Josh Allen has been the best quarterback in fantasy over the past three seasons. His 24.3 ppg was good for a QB3 finish, but make no mistake about it: Allen’s combination of prolific passing and power running gives him upside like no quarterback we’ve ever seen.
Given the volatility of other positions and the predictability of the elite quarterbacks, Allen’s week-winning ability makes him well worth a late-second-round pick.
2.09 Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Once Allen goes off the board, we will likely see a mini-run on quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes is, in fact, the most talented quarterback in NFL history. We have never seen anyone like him and may never again.
The Chiefs took Tyreek Hill away from him, and all Mahomes did was post his best season since 2018, averaging 25.8 ppg. Mahomes has never averaged lower than 20.7 ppg and never finished lower than QB6.
2.10 Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Had he not missed the two most important weeks of the fantasy season, I would argue Jalen Hurts was the single best pick of 2022 fantasy drafts.
Hurts finished as the overall QB1, averaging 26.8 ppg. He was always an elite rusher, but his massive leap forward as a passer truly elevated him to new heights. We have every reason to believe this is sustainable.
2.11 Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Make no mistake about it, Breece Hall was going to finish as an RB1 if he didn’t get hurt. For now, consider this a placeholder pick. The track record of running backs in their first year back from ACL surgery is not great.
I have no doubts that Hall will become an elite NFL running back. He averaged 16.4 ppg in his seven games played.
As long as the reports on his recovery are good, I might be willing to roll the dice on him getting back to 100% during the early part of the 2023 season.
2.12 Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We know for a fact that Chris Godwin played the entire 2022 season at well below 100%. He said so himself. The man is still in the process of fully regaining confidence in his knee.
As long as Godwin makes it through the postseason unscathed, he should enter 2023 feeling like his pre-injury self.
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Godwin is the Bucs’ WR1. He averaged 15.2 ppg despite getting off to a very slow start and playing on an offense that refused to throw him downfield targets.
I highly doubt his quarterback will be Tom Brady next season, but I don’t think a team like the Bucs is going to go into the season with an unproven starter. They will sign a veteran. Godwin’s 2022 is his 2023 floor.
Round 3
3.01 Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
3.02 Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
3.03 D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
3.04 Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
3.05 Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
3.06 Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
3.07 Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
3.08 Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
3.09 Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
3.10 DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
3.11 Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
3.12 Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Round 4
4.01 Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
4.02 Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns
4.03 DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals
4.04 Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
4.05 James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
4.06 Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
4.07 Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
4.08 Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
4.09 Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
4.10 Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4.11 Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
4.12 Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans