After months of preparation, the NFL Draft is finally over, and with it, 2023 dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts are about to start firing up. With Superflex formats the quickest rising way to play dynasty, here is a 2023 Superflex dynasty rookie mock draft as we begin to dial in how drafts could shake out.
2023 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft | Round 1
For this 2023 Superflex dynasty football mock draft, we’ll be using a PPR-scoring format. While this mock will serve as a guide on how a draft might go, it’s still recommended to draft based on your individual team’s needs.
Remember, this is how I value players, and your mileage may vary. The community of fantasy managers will establish the ADP in your specific leagues, so knowing how your league drafts is paramount. But these are a guide as to what to expect following the NFL Draft on where possible values could be hiding.
1.01) Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson has the highest ceiling of any quarterback in this class. He’s big (6’4″ and 244) and can scramble with the best of them but does it in a physical manner while having the speed to run away from defenders.
Richardson’s Combine numbers alone make fantasy managers and NFL general managers alike drool: 4.43 40-yard dash (1.53 10-yard split), 40.5″ vertical, and 10’9″ broad, giving him a perfect 10.00 RAS.
We all know how important rushing upside is to the QB position in fantasy. The fact he got top-four draft capital is all I needed to see and was the final missing piece of the evaluation.
MORE: FREE NFL Mock Draft Simulator (With Trades)
Indianapolis is arguably the second-best landing spot for Richardson outside of Detroit. He now joins a team with massive pass catchers, including Michael Pittman Jr., Jelani Woods, and Alec Pierce, along with newly drafted UNC WR Josh Downs to take over the vacated Parris Campbell role.
With Jonathan Taylor, Richardson will flow perfectly in the RPO schemes of Shane Steichen. It’s a risk, but I’m swinging for the fence.
1.02) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
After listing Bijan Robinson at 1.01 for the last year, it feels weird placing him at 1.02 even though he received about as high of draft capital as you could imagine, going No. 8 overall.
Robinson landed in a great spot and is going to absolutely crush it in the NFL. Atlanta running backs last year were first in yards, yards per carry, and rushing first downs. They were second in EPA/rush and third in success rate, first downs/rush, and TDs/rush. The Falcons were 31st in passing rate over expectation, and while Desmond Ridder should be an upgrade over Marcus Mariota, they are a run-first offense.
However, Richardson’s draft capital more than stands up, and because it’s Superflex, he’s the only player I’m willing to take over Robinson, especially in 12+ team formats where the premium of QBs is greater. I still expect to see Robinson go as the 1.01 in most leagues, but this is what I would do if in the position. Either way, you can’t lose.
1.03) Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
Weight concerns are a legitimate factor for Bryce Young. The only time he’s over 200 pounds is after Thanksgiving dinner, but clearly, that doesn’t bother the Carolina Panthers. Young has the best poise in the pocket when it gets messy, shows vast maturity when going through his progression, and can excel both on and off script inside and out of the pocket.
While Young doesn’t have the strongest arm in the class, he can make every throw, including corner hole shots and far hash to the numbers. I would just like this more if DJ Moore was still here. I’ll be extremely curious to see how Jonathan Mingo can latch on and work with Adam Thielen and DJ Chark as their top options.
1.04) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Listen to the NFL. They said Jahmyr Gibbs is darn near just as valuable and as talented as Robinson, and he went just four picks later to the Detroit Lions. That is a message fantasy managers cannot ignore for dynasty drafts.
Gibbs did measure in a bit smaller at 5’9″ and 199 pounds, but with a 4.36 40 time and a 33.5″ vert, he’s as dynamic as it gets. It’s clear Detroit loves him, and you can see it in the video from their draft room. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero stated the Lions “would’ve been comfortable taking him at No. 6. Instead, Brad Holmes traded back with AZ, added draft capital (including No. 34), and got Gibbs at 12.”
Detroit has a top-three offensive line, and Gibbs has the upside to quickly become the RB3 in dynasty with Robinson and Breece Hall, especially with D’Andre Swift quickly traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, leaving Gibbs to work with David Montgomery. I am all in.
1.05) C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
Former Ohio State and new Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud rounds out the top five in this Superflex mock draft next, and while the order might vary, I have a hard time seeing any other players consistently jumping in here.
The talk of Houston not wanting him was pure smoke, and the draft capital of No. 2 overall proves it. Similar to Young, there’s not a throw Stroud can’t make. The game against Georgia likely cemented Stroud’s spot in the draft as he showed that he can be the playmaker the Texans need him to be.
1.06) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
The pre-draft WR1 comes off the board first in both the NFL Draft (No. 20) and here in this Superflex dynasty rookie mock draft.
There were other landing spots I would have preferred, but Seattle is by far nowhere near the worst. If anything, I like it so long as Geno Smith can repeat his success in 2023. The Seahawks have a very top-heavy WR room with little to no depth behind DK Metcalf and an aging Tyler Lockett.
Smith-Njigba is best served as a slot receiver, and he’ll fill that role for Seattle until comes time to take over Lockett’s role. It’s almost ironic or foreshadowing that the player several have comped to Lockett and Doug Baldwin, goes to the same franchise.
1.07) Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Quentin Johnston was falling down the board, with reports suggesting he would fall out of the first. Guess what? They were wrong, as Los Angeles selected Johnston at No. 21 overall.
Johnston joins Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but the biggest part is offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who will bring a more vertically attacking scheme to LA that meshes not only with Justin Herbert but also Johnston.
The scheme fit could not be better for Johnston. At 6’3″ and 208 pounds, he has a size advantage over 99% of corners and uses every inch of his frame to high-point with the best of them.
But the concerns of Johnston being raw are still there. No doubt about it. He’ll be fighting with Josh Palmer for targets in the beginning, but Johnston is the future of the position for Herbert and the Chargers.
1.08) Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
The third wide receiver off the board in this 2023 dynasty Superflex rookie mock draft is one of the most complete receivers in the class.
At 5’11” and roughly 173 pounds, Jordan Addison plucks the ball out of the sky and explodes to the high point. He’s a twitchy runner who’s also a serious threat after the catch.
MORE: 2023 NFL Draft Fantasy Football Winners and Losers — Bijan Robinson and Jordan Addison Landed Well
Minnesota’s passing attack has been dynamic, with Kirk Cousins playing well and Justin Jefferson the top wide receiver in the league. Addison will fill the role vacated by Thielen and step in as the No. 2 from Day 1. It’s a coin flip for me between Addison and Johnston.
1.09) Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
When I saw him go to Baltimore, even though they locked up Lamar Jackson, I could only hang my head. I love Zay Flowers as a player. He was up to my WR2 pre-draft, but I can’t, in good faith, leave him there.
At 5’9″ and 182 pounds, Flowers’ catch radius will limit his ceiling, but that never concerned me, as he’s arguably the most complete receiver in the class. He runs every route at a high level and can do it from all positions. Plus, Flowers has an uncanny ability to stay in a DB’s blind spot when going vertical.
But this is Baltimore. It’s a low-volume, rushing-focused attack.
Now, there’s a conversation to be had that Baltimore investing in Jackson plus adding pass catchers could be a sign of them wanting to finally open up more. Even if they just got to league average in per-game attempts, I would be happy. I’m not overly concerned about the long-term impact of Odell Beckham Jr., and Flowers’ signing feels like a direct shot at Rashod Bateman.
Perhaps Flowers’ skill set is so good he can prove me wrong and force himself into the WR1 role (No. 2 behind Mark Andrews). But I can only go with what history says happens to Baltimore receivers with John Harbaugh.
1.10) Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints
Truth be told, I’m struggling to see why some don’t like this landing spot or the overall lack of interest there appears to be in Kendre Miller — something that has bugged me for quite some time.
At 5’11” and 215 pounds, Miller hits all of the historical benchmarks for what size running back works in the NFL. He averaged 3.61 yards after contact at TCU and forced a missed tackle on 31% of his runs (67).
Miller not only has the profile but received Day 2 draft capital (No. 71), joining the New Orleans Saints, who have Alvin Kamara facing a possible suspension, is declining in his efficiency, and has an out in his contract after this season, paving the way for a runaway RB1 role.
Sure, Jamaal Williams is there to take some goal-line carries away, and Miller might not be all world in 2023. But given what happened to the rest of the RB class during the draft, Miller moved up one spot to RB3 in my rankings and is a first-rounder for me in Superflex drafts.
2.01) Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
Where Will Levis goes on your draft day is anyone’s guess. I don’t think there will be a consensus draft spot. Those who didn’t like Levis to begin with will stay away, but those who did are at least curious.
There are reports Levis could have gone No. 4 to Indy if Richardson was gone, but who cares? It didn’t happen, and Levis is a second-round QB. Those are the facts.
But he’s also a 6’3″, 230+, big-armed QB with mobility that did very much to intrigue me. That hasn’t changed, either.
Levis is not going to start in Year 1 and never should have, in my opinion. But Ryan Tannehill is also not the stiffest of competition, and Levis should at least be the Titans’ 2024 starting QB.
I have no issue taking value on Levis if he slides in drafts, but it needs to be closer to the middle for me to take the dive. However, the format does give Levis more value.
Hopefully, Tennessee can find some weapons along the way, as they continue to develop Levis. Treylon Burks is not an alpha yet, and there are still questions as to how long Derrick Henry will be in town.
2.02) Devon Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
This was destiny, right? There was no way Devon Achane was going to land anywhere but in Miami. As the No. 84 overall pick and RB5 off the board, Achane lands in an excellent fit with Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins.
Miami re-signed Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. this offseason on one-year deals, but I don’t see that stopping Achane from impacting right away. At the end of the day, Achane has to be an outlier. He’s 5’9″ and listed at 185 pounds. Since 1995, there have only been 10 instances where running backs who were sub-190 pounds ran for over 1,000 yards in a season. Of those times, five were by Warrick Dunn alone.
Can Achane be that outlier? It’s certainly possible.
But even if he doesn’t hit the magical 1,000-yard threshold, Achane is a leverage changer. Defenses can’t account for his speed until it’s too late. If Miami gives him around 10 opportunities per game, Achane has starter upside for fantasy.
2.03) Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
I didn’t think the rumors were real that Dalton Kincaid was being viewed as the TE1 over Michael Mayer, but Buffalo traded up to make it happen in the first round. I don’t even necessarily view him as a Dawson Knox replacement but as more of a big slot receiver, who, as a rookie, could become the No. 2 pass catcher.
As expected for a tight end, Kincaid has a big frame at 6’3 1/2″ and 246 pounds with 10 1/4″ hands. He caught 70 balls for 890 yards and eight touchdowns last season, including a 16-catch, 234-yard game against USC. However, his season ended early due to a back injury.
Even if Knox is a bit frustrating in the red zone, Kincaid is looking at a target share that would put him among the top five tight ends, despite being more like a wide receiver in his role. At the end of the day, opportunities equate to fantasy points, and Kincaid should see a fair share of opportunities starting in 2023.
2.04) Jonathan Mingo, WR, Carolina Panthers
The Panthers had a plan. That plan was to select Young and find their replacement for DJ Moore. They drafted that player in Jonathan Mingo.
Although Mingo’s college production wasn’t elite, he can make plays all over the field. He’s a big target at 6’2″ and 215 pounds and plays like someone of that size. Mingo’s separation can be a bit inconsistent, but if you get the ball in his hands, he can be an electric playmaker. Mingo is also someone who saw a lot of manufactured touches, with screens accounting for 18% of his targets in 2022.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie WR Rankings
Ole Miss has become a factory for receivers, with A.J. Brown, Metcalf, and Elijah Moore coming out in recent years. Can Mingo join that list? Yeah, I think he can. He’s in a perfect spot to join and learn from Thielen in his early years. Mingo’s the future No. 1 of the Panthers, and I’m going to draft him accordingly.
2.05) Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State
Jayden Reed was one of my favorite guys who were not getting the respect they deserved coming into the draft. All he did was produce at a high level, or at least what Michigan State would allow him to do. Reed had a career 2.18 YPRR with an 11.5 aDOT and saw a target come his way on nearly 25% of his passing-down snaps (325 targets). Plus, he does that from all alignments, similar to Flowers’ positional versatility.
According to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Reed posted a 70.3% success rate vs. man, 79.2% vs. zone, and an 87th-percentile success rate vs. press at 77.8%. The guy averaged two car lengths of separation (don’t quote me on that).
While Green Bay doesn’t have Aaron Rodgers anymore, Jordan Love could be better than expected and had some good moments. Reed can step in from Day 1 and be the No. 2 alongside Christian Watson. I actually really liked this landing spot, and he received second-round draft capital too.
2.06) Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
I won’t lie to you and say I understand this selection because I don’t. Nothing about this made sense. Kenneth Walker III was the RB8 from Weeks 6 through 17 after Rashaad Penny was placed on IR and finished as the RB9 in points per game. Take away the two games he missed due to injury, and Walker averaged 16.4 PPR points per game.
So why on Earth did Pete Carroll find it necessary to bring in one of the most complete running backs available in the draft in Zach Charbonnet? It’s not like he’ll use an RB inside the 1-yard line when it matters. Can you tell I’m salty about this one?
I understand Seattle wants to establish the run, and behind Walker, they didn’t have a lot of depth. But all it did was limit the fantasy ceiling for two incredibly talented running backs. Not only that, Seattle then drafted Kenny McIntosh in the seventh round, which will only take away potential targets for Charbonnet or Walker.
I must say I find it humorous that Seattle drafted players who were comped to former franchise stars, with JSN getting the Baldwin and Lockett comps with Charbonnet reminding some of Marshawn Lynch minus the breakaway speed.
Charbonnet is a mid-second-rounder strictly because of his talents, but he’s taking a substantial slide in Superflex dynasty mock drafts.
2.07) Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions
Here’s another one I didn’t see coming, but I absolutely love it. I also love it when a team tells us the expectations for a player. Last year, the Lions traded away T.J. Hockenson to the Minnesota Vikings and received a second-round pick in return. That pick was used on Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta, who is a combination of Hockenson and Noah Fant. That’s really high praise.
Last year, Detroit tight ends accounted for 12 touchdowns, a franchise record and the second most in the NFL behind only Kansas City. So not only is an extremely athletic tight end stepping into a role that has already produced high-end fantasy talent but Laporta’s also on a team that is on an upswing.
I wouldn’t be surprised if LaPorta finished second on the team in targets and flirts with TE1 production as a rookie. However, I expect more in Year 2, which is typically the norm for first-year tight ends. If there was one good thing with this year’s draft is that it helped give us more useable TE talent.
2.08) Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
It was clear Mayer was not happy that he wasn’t the first tight end selected. Honestly, I don’t blame him. I had him graded as my top tight end, and he had been my TE1 of the class since his freshman year at Notre Dame. He’s as complete as it gets.
Las Vegas traded away Darren Waller this offseason, creating a massive hole at tight end. While they signed Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard, neither is the long-term solution, and Mayer has vastly more upside.
Mayer is impacted by Davante Adams‘ absurd target share and red-zone share, but he should be an immediate pass-game weapon and an upgrade in the run game as a blocker. Jimmy Garoppolo knows how to find his tight ends, and Josh McDaniels knows to scheme them into impactful roles.
I think 31 other teams made a mistake letting Mayer slip this far. He’s one of the highest floor players available in drafts and has top-eight upside in two years.
2.09) Jalin Hyatt, WR, New York Giants
Personally, there were several other teams I would have preferred to have seen Jalin Hyatt drafted to. At 6’0″ and 176 pounds, Hyatt is a leverage changer and forces defenses to adjust on the field due to his vertical speed. I would’ve loved seeing him with Los Angeles, but New York is a sneaky good fit for Hyatt.
For me, Hyatt will take the Darius Slayton role, which is more valuable than you might think. Last year, Slayton was 12th in deep targets, 15th in yards per target, and 10th in yards per reception. Those deep posts will now go to Hyatt, who will have a far better time maximizing the per-opportunity upside of those looks coming his way.
MORE: Dynasty Rankings 2023 — Top Superflex Fantasy Options
The Giants needed a legit No. 1 wide receiver. While I don’t know if that will be Hyatt when the dust settles, he’s likely a better route runner than being given credit due to the option/choice scheme of Tennessee. All I know is I would not want to be a linebacker or cornerback trying to cover him. With an aggressive Daniel Jones plus Darren Waller drawing coverage, Hyatt is a solid value pick at this point in rookie Superflex drafts.
2.10) Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
The winner of the pre-draft cycle was Tyjae Spears. But I don’t know if I would call him that now. Spears rushed for a whopping 1,586 yards in 2022 (fifth) with 19 touchdowns on 231 attempts while crossing the 100-yard mark nine times for Tulane. However, now he sits behind the massive presence of Derrick Henry.
Similar to Achane, size has been a concern. But Spears tipped the scales in Mobile at 5’10” and 190 pounds, which was higher than expected. His burst is jaw-dropping, and he continuously makes defenders miss in the open field with a 27.2% missed-tackle rate and a 32.4% 10-plus-yards-per-carry rate.
Spears brings legitimate home-run speed, but Henry has averaged 24.3 touches per game over the past four years, which leaves him nothing but scraps. I have no idea how long Henry will be in town. We’ve heard rumors all offseason he could be dealt. If that were to happen, Spears would work a complementary role with 2022 fourth-round pick Hassan Haskins.
Spears is an all-around back and could be set up to be Henry’s successor. The skill set is there, so if the opportunity comes, Spears in the back end of Round 2 in 2023 Superflex rookie drafts will be a steal.
Round 3
3.01) Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
3.02) Marvin Mims, WR, Denver Broncos
3.03) Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears
3.04) Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
3.05) Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns
3.06) Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
3.07) Darnell Washington, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
3.08) Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
3.09) Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers
3.10) Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers
Round 4
4.01) Michael Wilson, TE, Arizona Cardinals
4.02) Charlie Jones, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
4.03) Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, WR, Houston Texans
4.04) Hendon Hooker, QB, Detroit Lions
4.05) Israel Abanikanda, RB, New York Jets
4.06) Eric Gray, RB, New York Giants
4.07) Evan Hull, RB, Indianapolis Colts
4.08) Zach Evans, RB, Los Angeles Rams
4.09) Kayshon Boutte, WR, New England Patriots
4.10) Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB, Washington Commanders
Round 5
5.01) Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Dallas Cowboys
5.02) Deuce Vaughn, RB, Dallas Cowboys
5.03) Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Houston Texans
5.04) DeWayne McBride, RB, Minnesota Vikings
5.05) Kenny McIntosh, RB, Seattle Seahawks
5.06) Brendon Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
5.07) Zack Kuntz, TE, New York Jets
5.08) Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
5.09) Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
5.10) Tyler Scott, WR, Chicago Bears