The first week of free agency was chock full of major quarterback movement, and Week 2 kicked off with a few more dominoes falling. What does all the movement mean for the 2022 NFL Draft quarterback class, and how do franchises view the incoming rookie signal-callers?
2022 NFL Draft: Free agency moves show lack of confidence in rookie QB class
Here is a quick recap of all the quarterback moves that have taken place since free agency opened last week.
Quarterback trades
- Russell Wilson: Traded from Seattle to Denver
- Carson Wentz: Traded from Indianapolis to Washington
- Deshaun Watson: Traded from Houston to Cleveland
- Matt Ryan: Traded from Atlanta to Indianapolis
- Drew Lock: Traded from Denver to Seattle
- Case Keenum: Traded from Cleveland to Buffalo
Quarterback signings
- Jameis Winston: Re-signed by New Orleans
- Marcus Mariota: Signed by Atlanta
- Mitchell Trubisky: Signed by Pittsburgh
- Teddy Bridgewater: Signed by Miami
- Kyle Allen: Signed by Houston
- Tyrod Taylor: Signed by New York Giants
- Jacoby Brissett: Signed by Cleveland
Quarterbacks that could be traded prior to the draft
- Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
- Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
- Gardner Minshew, Philadelphia Eagles
What do offseason moves mean for 2022 NFL Draft QB class?
When the Steelers signed Mitchell Trubisky to a lucrative contract, and the Commanders traded for Carson Wentz, it was clear the NFL lacked confidence in the 2022 NFL Draft’s crop of rookie QBs. All those previously mentioned transactions didn’t even include the Packers extending a massive contract to Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady coming out of retirement to rejoin the Buccaneers.
Now, many of these moves don’t pull teams 100% out of the running to take a QB early. But at the very least, most signal toward the league’s absence of faith in the rookies to start early in their careers. Which, in all honesty, is fair. Outside of maybe Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, I wouldn’t be confident in starting any passer in Year 1. And even he owns historically small hands for the position and a slow processing time.
Liberty’s Malik Willis owns the highest upside thanks to his immense physical tools, but his decision-making, technique, and pocket presence leave much to be desired. Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder faced lesser competition at Cincinnati, struggled with ball placement, and there doesn’t seem to be much room to improve upon his accuracy. Ole Miss’ Matt Corral doesn’t have much experience reading defenses and moving passed his first read.
North Carolina’s Sam Howell needs to be patient going through progressions and prove he can handle an offense with more than just RPOs and deep balls. Lastly, Nevada’s Carson Strong is dealing with a worrisome knee injury, is largely a statue in the pocket, and can force passes at times. While every prospect has their strengths and weaknesses, the 2022 class is far too raw to entrust a franchise to from Day 1 unless you are okay with the consequences.
Teams that could select a QB in the first round
Truly, there are only a couple of teams that seem destined to draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft: the Lions and Panthers.
Jared Goff is locked up for at least one more year and could be the perfect stopgap. The Lions coached Willis at the Senior Bowl and have been linked to the Liberty star ever since. If you are drafting for pure potential, Willis is arguably the top player in the draft. He’s raw and needs polishing, but that’s what a Year 1 redshirt behind Goff is for. Even if Detroit doesn’t pull the trigger at No. 2 overall, they could select a QB at No. 32.
Sam Darnold, meanwhile, is around for one more year and is not the face of the franchise. We know that. The Panthers know that. And after failing to land Watson, the next move has to be to draft a QB.
Sure, they could swing for Jimmy G or Baker Mayfield, but are those players head coach Matt Rhule wants to hitch his wagon to? Seemingly he is on a short leash. The only way to extend it is by selecting a rookie signal-caller or winning games, and neither of those veteran options are surefire bets to do so.
With the No. 6 overall selection, the Panthers will presumably have their pick of the litter after the Lions. If Willis isn’t available, it might be difficult to reach for another quarterback. But Carolina doesn’t have much of a choice.
Other franchises that could select a QB in the 2022 NFL Draft
The Texans, Falcons, Seahawks, Commanders, and Steelers should all look to upgrade under center. However, Houston seems keen on giving second-year QB Davis Mills a fair look after selecting him in the third round last year.
Atlanta just signed Marcus Mariota to reunite with head coach Arthur Smith. They could draft a quarterback, but there are far too many holes on the roster to take advantage of a rookie contract at the position. So, they could be more in play for the 2023 class.
Seattle wanted Drew Lock, and they got him. It may be coach speak, but head coach Pete Carroll believes they can win with Lock. I and many others do not share the same opinion, but if they believe in Lock, they may opt to build around him in the draft rather than choose his successor/competition.
The Commanders sent valuable draft capital for Wentz, signaling their intention to start him — even though that ship has evidently sailed. And the Steelers hope competition between Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, and Dwayne Haskins breeds enough improvement over Ben Roethlisberger in 2021 — an admittedly low bar.
I still believe each of these franchises should and could go QB in Round 1. Yet, with their recent transactions and perceived internal evaluations, Day 2 is more likely.
Final thoughts
Teams presumably punted on the 2022 NFL Draft in favor of the 2023 class led by Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. Franchises in win-now mode went out and struck deals for top-tier passers. Meanwhile, others who are a year-plus away from contending, opted to bring in stopgaps for the immediate future. And that’s with two more significant ripples yet to come: Garoppolo and Mayfield.
The 2022 NFL Draft QB class isn’t short of raw talent and upside. However, as the league has shown, the risk is apparently not worth the early-round investment.