For a long time, NFL and fantasy football pundits alike talked up third-year wide receivers. A receiver’s third season was typically when he’d take that leap to the next level. Sometimes, though, it never happens. Here are four third-year wide receivers you can give up on in fantasy football.
Third-year wide receivers it’s okay to give up on in fantasy football
One of the most important skills to possess in fantasy football is admitting when you were wrong. None of us are capable of predicting player success at a 100% rate. If we can even get to 60%, that’s going to result in a massively positive expected value over the course of our fantasy football careers.
Some of these wide receivers are guys you may have liked coming out of college. You may have even liked them as recently as last year. I know I certainly did for a couple of them. Unfortunately, after two years in the NFL, here are four third-year wide receivers I’m giving up on.
Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles
We start with a player I liked as a prospect. Jalen Reagor had an impressive prospect profile that suggested NFL success. He was a first-round pick by the Eagles at just 21 years old, posting good speed and elite burst scores.
Reagor was dominant in college at a very young age. In the NFL, he completely flopped.
Reagor caught just 31 passes for 396 yards and a touchdown as a rookie. Those numbers alone pretty much spelled doom for his NFL career. A wide receiver typically needs to reach 500 receiving yards as a rookie for any chance of going on to have a productive career.
As a sophomore, Reagor couldn’t have asked for a better situation. The Eagles’ WR1 was undersized rookie DeVonta Smith. Reagor was all set to operate as their primary outside receiver. Instead, he played even worse. Reagor caught just two more passes than he did as a rookie for 97 fewer yards. This was despite playing in six more games. As a result, Reagor averaged just 4.6 PPR fantasy points per game last season.
Now entering his third season, I’ve shut the door on Reagor ever being more than a real-life rotational WR4/5. During the 2022 NFL Draft, the Eagles traded for A.J. Brown, who will start opposite Smith. They also signed Zach Pascal, who’s proven to be better than Reagor. Quez Watkins was more productive than Reagor last year as well.
At best, Reagor is set to open the season as the Eagles’ WR5. He might even be their WR6 behind Greg Ward. It’s entirely possible Reagor either gets cut or is a healthy inactive on game day. If you’re still holding out hope for Reagor, it’s time to let go.
Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
I really wish I could sit here and tell you how I nailed these predictions and knew these players would be terrible. While I was never a big Laviska Shenault guy, I can’t say I thought he would be this unproductive.
The funny thing is Shenault actually saw 100 targets last season. He just didn’t do anything with them.
Shenault was supposed to be this explosive downfield threat. Instead, he’s just a slow, low aDOT guy. As a rookie, Shenault’s average depth of target was 6.6, ranking outside the top 100. Somehow, it got worse as a sophomore, dropping to 5.4.
The Jaguars may not have openly said they’re done with Shenault, but actions speak louder than words. While Marvin Jones is back for another year, the Jaguars also emptied the checkbook to sign Christian Kirk this offseason. They also signed Zay Jones and Evan Engram. That’s at least three pass catchers who will see targets ahead of Shenault.
Last season, Laquon Treadwell and Jamal Agnew were also surprisingly competent. It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if they, too, played ahead of Shenault.
There was definitely reason to believe in Shenault as a rookie. He even reached 600 receiving yards. I completely understand the optimism that went in heading into his sophomore season. However, after two years in the league, I’m ready to close the door on Shenault.
Denzel Mims, New York Jets
Denzel Mims is yet another cautionary tale about both four-year college receivers and Baylor receivers. Mims was productive in college and posted off-the-charts athletic measurables at the NFL Combine. He ran a 4.38 40-time at 6’3″, 207 pounds. By all accounts, Mims should’ve panned out. He just…didn’t.
Mims managed just 357 receiving yards as a rookie. Yes, he only played in nine games and would’ve hit the 500-receiving-yard threshold had he played a full season. Still, the threshold doesn’t care about why a receiver didn’t hit it — all that matters is he didn’t.
Then, as a sophomore, Mims was completely marginalized. The Jets dealt with a rash of injuries to their wide receiver corps. Corey Davis went down. Elijah Moore followed suit. At one point last season, the Jets were trotting out Braxton Berrios and Keelan Cole as their top two receivers. And yet, Mims still couldn’t command targets.
Mims commanded just a 6% target share and caught just eight passes for 133 yards for the entire year. In response, the Jets have clearly moved on. Moore is their presumptive WR1, Davis is back, they re-signed Berrios, and drafted rookie Garrett Wilson in the first round.
If Mims is even active on game day, it will be as the team’s WR5. Even in the deepest of fantasy football leagues, you can give up on Mims.
Bryan Edwards, Atlanta Falcons
Analytics Twitter loves Bryan Edwards. The former third-round pick of the Raiders was a popular sleeper entering the 2021 season. This one I never saw.
Edwards was a four-year college player who broke out at an early age and was incredibly dominant at South Carolina. But his college yards per reception were in the 12th percentile, and he fell into the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
As a rookie, Edwards managed just 11 receptions for 193 yards in 11 games. Again, well short of the 500-yard threshold. In his sophomore season, it wasn’t much better.
Edwards had every opportunity to establish himself as the Raiders’ WR1 of the future. The Raiders’ top three receivers entering the 2021 season were Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow, and Edwards. Yet, Edwards was unable to produce. Then, Ruggs had his horrific off-the-field incident, ending his time in Las Vegas. Edwards once again had an opportunity to be the guy for Derek Carr. Instead, he fell behind Zay Jones.
Edwards will have a chance to revive his career on an equally barren Falcons depth chart. Drake London is the clear WR1, but the WR2 job is wide open. And there are those out there that think Edwards can capture it. But he had just as good of a chance in Las Vegas with a better quarterback throwing him the ball, and he couldn’t do it.
I see no reason to believe things will be different on a Falcons team led by Marcus Mariota that will almost certainly be one of the worst offenses in the NFL.