The 2022 C-USA Championship Game reunites UTSA and North Texas after their exciting regular-season clash. Can the Roadrunners retain their C-USA crown, or will the Mean Green land their first-ever conference title? We’ve got all the latest college football betting odds and a North Texas vs. UTSA prediction ahead of the game.
North Texas vs. UTSA Odds
- Spread: UTSA (-9)
- Moneyline: UTSA (-330), North Texas (+275)
- Over/Under: 69.5 points
Let’s start our breakdown of the North Texas vs. UTSA odds for the 2022 C-USA Championship Game with what should be the easiest call of the game.
The two teams didn’t get remotely close to the 69.5 over/under line in their clash earlier in the season and have never broken through that mark in the 10 games they’ve played against each other since 2013. Although the two teams are 14-10 combined against the over, I’d wager this game being closer to 60 total points instead of 70.
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UTSA comes into the 2022 C-USA Championship Game riding a wave of nine consecutive wins, including that last-minute win over North Texas. They’re unbeaten in conference play and have yet to be defeated when entering the game as a moneyline favorite.
While some injuries might cause this game to be closer than the nine-point spread line suggests, taking the moneyline on the Roadrunners is probably the safest play, as our North Texas vs. UTSA prediction explains.
Prediction for North Texas vs. UTSA in the C-USA Championship Game
The 2022 C-USA Championship Game is the first of Championship Weekend and, in my opinion, has the potential to be one of the most exciting. After a cagey start to their clash earlier in the year, North Texas and UTSA exploded into a scoring frenzy in the fourth quarter. With two offenses with high-scoring potential but defenses that have sometimes been exposed, there’s no reason to think that we won’t be treated to a frenetic feast of football from the Alamodome once more.
Let’s start with the reigning C-USA champions, UTSA. Averaging 37.9 points per game this season, the Roadrunners have been a free-scoring juggernaut in the defense of their conference title.
Jeff Traylor’s team has steamrolled almost all of their conference opponents this season. The Roadrunners have scored 30+ points in all games except their Week 3 defeat to Texas, while putting up 40+ points in wins over Army, MTSU, UAB, Louisiana Tech, and Rice. No other team in the C-USA has more points per game, and only Western Kentucky has more total yards and passing yards per game.
Despite the loss of star running back Sincere McCormick, UTSA has averaged more points per game than they did last season. How? The return of quarterback Frank Harris for another season. The dynamic dual-threat passer is one of the most electric signal-callers in all of college football, and he’s having a career year.
Ahead of the 2022 C-USA Championship Game, Harris has already matched his passing touchdown total from last season (27). Meanwhile, he’s posted career highs for completion percentage (69.6%), passing yards (3,524 yards), and yards per attempt (9.0 YPA). Additionally, Harris has rushed for over 500 yards in three consecutive seasons while adding eight rushing touchdowns to his résumé.
Harris has been ably assisted by a ludicrous trio of talented receivers and an RB room featuring Brenden Brady, Kevorian Barnes, and Trelon Smith that has averaged over two touchdowns a game and 4.5 yards per carry this year. Both Joshua Cephus and Zakhari Franklin have 900+ receiving yards this season — with 25 touchdowns between the two — and De’Corian Clark, who snagged the winner last time the two teams met.
While enthusing about the UTSA offense, it would be wise not to forget about the talent that North Texas possesses on that side of the ball. The Mean Green rank in the top 25 nationally for points per game, while their 34.5 points per game is the third-best mark in Conference USA. If it wasn’t for Western Kentucky, the 2022 C-USA Championship Game would feature the two top-scoring offenses in the conference.
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Quarterback Austin Aune is one of the best stories in all of college football. Originally a TCU commit in the 2012 recruiting class, Aune spent six years as part of the New York Yankees. Now in his fourth season with the Mean Green, Aune is playing the best football of his life as the oldest QB in college football. The 29-year-old has thrown for 3,115 yards and 31 touchdowns on the road to the title game.
North Texas’ offense also possesses several big-play threats. Roderic Burns leads the team with 644 receiving yards, and leading touchdown scorer Jyaire Shorter is a potential 2023 NFL Draft prospect, who is averaging a mind-blowing 27.5 yards per reception this season.
Add in a running back rotation featuring Ikaika Ragsdale and Ayo Adeyi that is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 1.7 touchdowns per game, and you have an exciting, free-scoring offense.
With two such dynamic offenses facing off, the outcome of this game is going to be determined by several defensive factors.
Although North Texas’ defense features multiple playmakers, including KD Davis (118 tackles), Mazin Richards (10.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks), Ridge Texada (15 pass breakups, three interceptions), and DeShawn Gaddie (10 pass breakups), they’ve allowed 30.1 points per game, ranking in the bottom 30 in all of CFB.
In the earlier-season clash, the Mean Green allowed 495 total yards of offense to the Roadrunners, while UTSA dominated the time of possession.
UTSA’s defense isn’t flawless. The Roadrunners have allowed over 30 points in half of their games while averaging 26.5 points per game, buoyed by the recent wins over Louisiana Tech and Rice, where they only allowed seven points.
However, their ability to limit red-zone conversions — only 54.76% of opponent’s red-zone trips result in a touchdown — and third-down conversions (40% conversion allowed) gives them a distinct advantage in an area where the UTSA offense thrives.
One thing of note that could impact the 2022 C-USA Championship Game is several injuries from the UTSA team that narrowly defeated North Texas earlier in the season. Game-winner Clark has been absent since that game, and leading rusher Brady and TE Gavin Sharp have already been ruled out.
Still, with Harris’ dynamic ability at the QB spot, the Roadrunners have a clear advantage.
Meep, meep.
North Texas vs. UTSA Prediction: UTSA 34, North Texas 30