How might this affect teams in 2021?
The league does have the potential to offer flexibility for their teams in 2021. They may decide to lessen the blow of 2020’s lost revenue by gradually decreasing the cap over a number of seasons. However, even that could see sequential big cuts in the salary cap of more than $20 million a year. What the league may decide is that by taking the bulk of the salary cap hit in 2021, they can protect their owners, while also bringing ever-rising player contracts back down and resetting the market at a lower rate.
The problem for many teams is that they have recently signed players to massive contracts, expecting to see their salary cap continue rising. A rising salary cap would negate the effect of those massive deals, lowering them in terms of their relative cost against the cap. However, if the cap drops by 15-40%, then suddenly those deals have the potential to be crippling to the short-term future of those franchises.
Meanwhile, teams who have been careful with their cap space over the past few years could find themselves in an extremely advantageous position in 2021. Let’s take a look at an example of two clubs at either end of the spectrum in terms of potential cap management in 2021.
The Philadelphia Eagles
2021 was shaping up to be a year of potential cap management issues for the Eagles even before a possible decline in the salary cap. Overthecap.com projected the 2021 base salary cap to be $215 million based on the NFL’s current speed of growth. Even at that number, the Eagles are projected to be more than $50 million over that base number in 2021. Now they could mitigate half of that with the remaining ~$25 million in space they have in 2020 that they can “rollover” into 2021, but they would still be $25 million over their salary cap entering next season.
Now if we say that the cap is not going to rise but actually drop even the lowest amount that Schefter discussed, $30 million, that leaves the Eagles a potential $70 million in the red. The problem then is how they reduce those numbers. Three of their four biggest cap hits in 2021, Carson Wentz, Lane Johnson, and Darius Slay, have such big contract numbers, that cutting them would actually increase the Eagles salary commitments in terms of their cap next season.
That leaves the Eagles in a world of trouble. They could save $31 million in cap space by moving on from Fletcher Cox, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffrey, and Derek Barnett. After that then they are going to either have to work out contract restructures with the likes of Wentz, Johnson, and Slay, or they will have to gut the mid-tier of their roster to save the extra money they need to meet the cap requirements. Contract restructures would be the easiest option, but with the future of the league’s revenue still somewhat uncertain, they may just be pushing the issue down the road.
A final potential option would be to get in front of the problem now. They could cut players with medium-sized cap hits, for example, Marquise Goodwin (~$4.2 million cap hit in 2019). This would lower their salary cap in 2020 and increase the amount they could “roll over” into 2021. However, if the Eagles feel they have a team that can win the Super Bowl in 2020, they may decide to retain these players with a view to accepting a tough 2021 season if it comes with a Super Bowl in 2020.
The decisions for the Eagles and teams in similar situations, the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons, start right now, and those decisions could have devastating effects on the careers of the mid-tier players on their roster.
The Indianapolis Colts
At the other end of the spectrum are the Indianapolis Colts, who have undergone a steady rebuild of their roster over the past few seasons. The Colts are one of four teams expected to have over $90 million in cap space compared to the projected base salary cap, and the only team with over $100 million. If you then add in the $23 million in cap space they have right now in the 2020 season, then the Colts were looking at a potential $139 million in cap space in 2021.
Even in the worst-case scenario that Schefter outlined, an $80 million drop in the salary cap, the Colts would still have upwards of $30 million in cap space to play with when the 2021 season rolls around. In a league where many teams will have no choice but to let talented players walk out of the door, the Colts could find themselves in a situation to be making proactive moves to add talent to their roster and become an immediate Super Bowl contender.
Even in a best-case scenario of a $30 million drop, the Colts would still have close to $100 million in cap space. The Colts could be one of a handful of teams who find that the struggles of revenue generation in the 2020 season actually plays into their hands when it comes to them being competitive on the field in 2021.
Ben Rolfe is an editor and writer at Pro Football Network. You can find him on twitter @benrolfe15.