Week 4 in the XFL saw some surprising results, as home underdogs New York Guardians and Tampa Bay Vipers knocked off the Los Angeles Wildcats and D.C. Defenders, respectively. Things went a little more to plan for the early division leaders, the Houston Roughnecks, and St. Louis BattleHawks, who came away with victories over the Dallas Renegades and Seattle Dragons, respectively. Week 6 saw mixed results from the home teams go 2-2 against the spread and 3-1 on the Moneyline. Let’s take a look at whether our team of handicappers expects to see homefield advantage continuing to be a dominant force with their picks for Week 5 of the 2020 XFL season.
The statistics so far
Some eye-catching trends from this season through Week 4 are:
- Home teams are 10-6 ATS and 11-5 when it comes to the Moneyline
- Home favorites are covering the spread just 57% of the time (4-3)
- Home underdogs are covering the spread 66.6% of the time (6-3)
- No team is perfect against the spread, with the St. Louis BattleHawks (3-1) dropping their first game this past weekend
- Of the home teams this week, the Defenders are 2-0 ATS, and the Renegades are 0-2 ATS at home
- Of the road teams this week, the BattleHawks are 2-0 while the Guardians and Vipers are 0-2 ATS on the road
- The under is 11-5, with all eight games involving the Renegades and Guardians having gone under
Seattle Dragons @ Houston Roughnecks (-12.5) O/U: 45.5 | March 7th, 2 p.m. ET
Ben Rolfe
“This game could be a very damp, squib type situation to start the weekend. The Houston Roughnecks are clearly the better team, and barring disaster should sweep aside the Dragons. However, 12.5 points are too much for me to lay even given the disparities between the two sides. Some stats to be aware of if you are betting this game are that the Roughnecks average nearly double the number of points of the Dragons (31.5 to 16). Also, this matchup sees the joint second-best team in terms of yards per pass play (Roughnecks; 6.4) going up against the joint-worst team in terms of yards allowed per pass play (Dragons; 6.7). However, the Roughnecks are allowing an average of 22 points per game, which is a lot for a team trying to cover a 12-point spread.
Ryan Gosling
1u – Houston Roughnecks -12 | -110
New York Guardians @ Dallas Renegades (-8) OU: 37 | March 7th, 5 p.m. ET
Ben Rolfe
“This game sees the clash of the two teams who are a combined 0-8 when it comes to totals this season. The Renegades offense has looked mediocre this season even under Landry Jones, but it looked positively awful with Philip Nelson under center in Week 1. In that game, the Renegades managed just nine points. They have averaged 19.5 ppg this season but have made it to 2-2 on the back of a strong defense allowing only 18 ppg.
The Guardians offense has looked turgid all season, averaging just 12.3 ppg, but their defense has also been a strong point, allowing just 18.3 ppg while forcing seven turnovers. If Jones was playing, this line would be set about right, but with Nelson under center against the solid but unspectacular Luis Perez, the under is the right play here.”
1u – Under 37 Total Points | -110
Ryan Gosling
1u – Over 37 Total Points | -110
St. Louis BattleHawks @ D.C. Defenders (+3.5) O/U: 38.5 | March 8th, 4 p.m. ET
Chris Smith
“Two weeks ago, the DC Defenders were undefeated en route to Los Angeles and a date with the winless LA Wildcats. Since then, nothing has gone right for the Defenders, losers of two straight with both defeats coming at the hands of previously winless opponents. To make matters worse, DC has been outscored 64-9 in those two contests, with Cardale Jones suddenly looking more like a turnover machine than the Ohio State National Champion version of himself.
This week, the Defenders crawl back home, licking their wounds and facing a surprising St. Louis Battlehawks team primed to capture the XFL Eastern Division. Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate, and the Battlehawks defense is anchored by future NFL draft pick Kenny Robinson. St. Louis won’t have their rabid ‘dome’ field advantage in this one, but that defense travels, allowing a league-best 16 points per game and only 266 yards per game. The Battlehawks pass rush has been particularly effective, posting a 9% quarterback hit rate on the season and 13% in Week 4 against Seattle. None of this bodes well for Cardale Jones, who threw essentially every offensive teammate under the bus following Sunday’s loss to the Vipers.
While I don’t believe the Defenders are the worst team in the league by any stretch, despite what the majority of XFL power rankings would have you believe, I have zero faith in Pep Hamilton righting the ship this quickly. I suspect the Defenders return home and play much better this week, but the Battlehawks are rolling right now. I’ll take St. Louis as a road favorite and lay up to a field goal Sunday afternoon.”
1u – St. Louis BattleHawks -2.5 | -110
Ryan Gosling
1u – St. Louis BattleHawks -3 | -110
Ben Rolfe
“I jumped on this line as soon as it was released as it simply looked too low. Yes, the Defenders are 2-0 as home underdogs, both straight up and ATS, but the BattleHawks will be the best team they have hosted so far. So far this season, the BattleHawks own the second biggest differential in points scored versus allowed, at 7.3.
Additionally, the BattleHawks offense is leading the league in stats such as yards per passing play as well as both third-down and fourth-down conversions. On defense, they allow the lowest number of third-down conversions, 20%. I initially took this line at -2.5, but I am riding it all the way up to -4.5.”
1u – St. Louis BattleHawks -2.5 | -110
Tampa Bay Vipers @ Los Angeles Wildcats (-1.5) O/U: 40.5 | March 1st, 9 p.m. ET
Chris Smith
“The Los Angeles Wildcats followed up their impressive thrashing of the DC Defenders by getting upset themselves by the New York Guardians despite being 8-point road favorites. I was on the wrong side of that one, as I expected LA to roll an inferior Guardians team. A few things played out against us in New York last week, though. Josh Johnson’s favorite target, Nelson Spruce, missed the game with a knee injury, and kicker Nick Novak missed two second-half FG attempts that could have changed the complexion of the game entirely.
The most significant factor going against fellow Wildcats backers last Saturday, however, is an emerging trend that LA is on the right side of this week. XFL teams making cross country road trips are 0-4 straight up and against the spread so far through the first four weeks.
The Tampa Bay Vipers will arrive in Los Angeles, coming off their first win over the aforementioned Defenders. The Vipers ran roughshod over a DC defense that didn’t do much defending at all with DeVeon Smith and Jacques Patrick both rushing for over 100 yards. You have to think Winston Moss, the league’s only defensive head coach will have his Wildcats ready to make Taylor Cornelius beat them throwing the ball. The same travel schedule which hurt the Wildcats last Saturday in New York should help LA cover a short spread against a Vipers team traveling with one less day of rest and making a 9 p.m. EST kickoff. Give me the Wildcats on Sunday Night (I grabbed it at -1 early but am completely comfortable laying 2 or 2.5 in this one).”
1u – Los Angeles Wildcats -1 | -110
Ryan Gosling
1u – Over 40 Total Points | -110
Click to view the running list of our bets for the 2020 XFL season. Be sure to bookmark that page and visit it often throughout the week to stay updated on our latest moves.
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