Following my last article, I continue with my 2020 projections for fantasy football after doing projections for all 32 teams, this time for the NFC.
As I mentioned in the previous article, doing projections is the biggest teacher I have in the offseason. When doing rankings, it is an opinion when looking at one player against another. However, when doing this, I don’t look at the standings until I finish the last team.
Doing it this way, I look at each team in its own way based on tendencies, talent, and any changes that have taken place since we last saw football. This way takes out bias, for the most part. Sure, my fingerprints are all over these, but I try to base all of my stats and conclusions on logic and previous history.
With all of that said, let’s look at how the NFC will shake out and which players to target and which ones to maybe avoid.
2020 NFC Fantasy Football Projections
DeAndre Hopkins will see a regression in 2020…but is still elite
Anytime you talk about one of the best players in the sport and fantasy, taking a dip in production hurts to do. I just have a hard time finding a way DeAndre Hopkins goes over 135 targets.
From what I have seen, I might even be on the optimistic side of that stat line too. Between Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald seeing 203 targets combined, I have Hopkins taking a rather substantial drop from his five-year average of 30% target share to 23.1%. He is still a top 10 wide receiver in fantasy, but out of the wide receiver number one discussion.
Another note is I continue to love Kenyan Drake for 2020. Add this to the lists of platforms I discussed my love of him. I am not the only one as PFN Betting Expert Chris Smith was in favor of the overs when looking at Drake’s 2020 prop bets.
When Drake landed in Arizona until the end of the season, he was RB4 in PPR formats. Drake went on to average 5.2 yards per carry during that stretch with an impressive 19.92 fantasy points per game. While the defense will continue to be bad and force the Arizona Cardinals into negative game scripts, their total plays per game will elevate Drake’s potential. Drake comes out as RB6 in my PPR projections this year.
Calvin Ridley will continue his breakout
The Atlanta Falcons will start a trend in this article of the NFC South being a hotbed for fantasy scoring. I have Julio Jones projected for 151 targets on his way to a WR3 finish on the season. Also, Todd Gurley is still a viable option in the early rounds. While the Falcons will monitor his snap counts, he is still on a one-year deal and no use to hold back, so land as the knees hold up.
I have Gurley projected for 265 total touches on his way to an RB14 finish. My big take away was that I love Calvin Ridley this year. Mohamed Sanu is gone, and the Falcons didn’t make any moves to replace him even though Russell Gage will receive a bump. Also, Austin Hooper was replaced with Hayden Hurst, who I think will be a serviceable tight end, but won’t see the 100 targets that Hooper was used to seeing.
In 2019, once Sanu was traded, Ridley saw a spike in virtually all of his numbers. I believe we see the trend continue, and it turns into a 1A and 1B situation for the Falcons between him and Julio. I have Ridley with 120 targets and 8 touchdowns leading to a WR15 finish.
Beyond McCaffrey and Moore, things get confusing for Carolina
So many things make the Carolina Panthers hard to project in fantasy and feel confident in them. There is a new coach in Matt Rhule, the new offensive coordinator in Joe Brady, and a new quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater. Christian McCaffrey can and likely will regress a touch, but he is still in a league of his own. RB1, check the box move along.
The pass catchers get a bit more intriguing. After seeing 135 targets in 2019, I have D.J. Moore dropping slightly to 130 but more efficient with those while finding the endzone. Moore comes in with nearly 1200 yards and my WR9 in PPR projections.
Behind him, I can see it going in several ways. The addition of Robby Anderson as a deep threat could be enticing, but Joe Brady has also come out recently, saying that Curtis Samuel fits what this offense wants it to do perfectly. I have Samuel and his role in the slot coming out on top between the two at the end of season standings. Carolina likely won’t be in a lot of games going for a win with a porous defense, and I expect to see a lot of garbage time. As a combination, this is much better for fantasy success than it is for NFL wins.
David Montgomery might have sneaky fantasy value in 2020
We all know that David Montgomery was historically inefficient in 2019, averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt on 242 rushes. How many players are in line for 250 or more carries with little to no competition in the NFL? I have Montgomery as one of only eight running backs to surpass the 250 carry threshold in 2020. While he will lose out on 72% of the running back targets to Tarik Cohen, the floor is there as he will be more efficient in 2020.
As I covered in the latest episode of the Fantasy Force podcast, I love Allen Robinson this year. Robinson became one of only 11 wide receivers in the last eight years to finish as a WR1 in fantasy while on a bottom-five scoring offense. In 2019, Robinson was one of only four players who saw 20% or more of their team’s targets in 90% or more of their team’s games (15-of-16). The others were Michael Thomas (20% target share in 16-of-16 games), DeAndre Hopkins (15-of-16), and Davante Adams (11-of-12).
The targets are there, and Robinson gets the best quarterback of his career, even if that isn’t saying a lot in Nick Foles. He is WR11 in my 2020 projections. Also, Anthony Miller is a player who can see 100 targets and can be acquired at a discount in drafts. He presents some sneaky good value.
CeeDee Lamb falling into their laps at 17th overall is almost stealing by the Dallas Cowboys. Lamb is one of the best prospects I have ever scouted coming into the NFL. Ever since the NFL draft, I have said the addition of Lamb will not take away from both Amari Coopers or Michael Gallup’s production.
I think all three receivers could see over 100 targets, even though I currently have Lamb just below that mark at 94. For a rookie receiver, who is likely the third option on an offense with one of the best workhorse running backs, that’s a solid value given his ADP. While I am personally lower on Cooper than the consensus seems to be (WR18), both he and Gallup will be over the 200-point threshold in full PPR scoring with Gallup as my favorite of them all given his cost come draft day.
Kenny Golladay is a WR1 in 2020…even with Matthew Stafford regressing
Matthew Stafford was on pace for career-highs across the board from yards to even his 8.6 YPA, until suffering broken bones in his back while diving for the endzone, which caused him to miss the last eight games. I believe he comes back down to Earth, but both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones will still be valuable assets in 2020.
I have Stafford at 7.8 YPA while throwing for over 4,200 yards with Golladay and Jones seeing the lion’s share (pun intended) at roughly 40% of the targets. When I finished my projections and looked at the rankings, Golladay came out as my WR6 for 2020, and I stand by that projection.
As for the running backs, both D’Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson hurt each other for a fantasy perspective. I have Swift leading the backfield with 216 total touches, and if Johnson were to miss time, Swift has instant RB2 upside given his talent. An overlying issue comes with the Detroit Lions projected win total sitting at a meager 6.5 games, lowest in the NFC North. When they get behind in games, the running game will be sacrificed, which subsequently adds to Golladay and Jones’ upside.
Davante Adams is going to be a monster in 2020, but you knew that
Remember when the Green Bay Packers moved up to select Jordan Love in the first round rather than getting Aaron Rodgers more help? I sure do, and the projections show it as well. I have Davante Adams set for 154 targets, which oddly feels low if that can even be possible. Outside of maybe Allen Lazard, they don’t have another receiver who will earn more than 11% target share.
TE Jace Sternberger has as good of a chance to be in the top three pass catchers for Green Bay, and Rodgers isn’t known for using his tight ends even though Jimmy Graham saw 149 targets between 2018 and 2019. Michael Thomas is the only wide receiver I have finishing ahead of Adams this year.
Aaron Jones is another intriguing player going into 2020 who the community is split on. Last year, Jones scored a ridiculous 19 total touchdowns. Then the Packers added bruising Boston College RB AJ Dillion in the draft, and head coach Matt LaFleur has said they will continue to use a committee approach. Isn’t that just fantastic? There is nothing fantasy owners love more than a cloudy backfield, especially when Jones is going as a low-end RB1 in drafts.
I still believe in Jones’ talent and have him as my RB8 even with Jamaal Williams and Dillon scoring a combined seven touchdowns. I am slightly worried that Dillon can see a more significant percentage of carries inside the five-yard line than currently projected.
Robert Woods is the best value at the wide receiver position, and maybe all positions for 2020
Robert Woods finished as WR17 last year despite only scoring two touchdowns on 90 catches. That will undoubtedly take a jump in 2020. Over the second half of last year, when the Los Angeles Rams went to more of a two tight end look, Woods was fantastic.
From Week 9 thru Week 15, Woods caught 52 of his 79 targets for 663 yards and 2 touchdowns. Push that out to a 16-game pace, and it becomes a ridiculous 119 catches on 181 targets for 1515 yards and 5 touchdowns. Obviously, that won’t happen, but it shows that he can put up monster stretches during the season.
Going back to 2018, Woods finished as WR10, so he has demonstrated WR1 upside. After the bye week, Cooper Kupp all but disappeared, which baffled all of us as he was WR2 heading into that week. Head coach Sean McVay wants to run an up-tempo offense and rely on the passing game for quick completions and allow the pass catchers to create yards after the catch.
Since taking over the helm in 2017, the Rams have averaged 1,033 offensive plays while utilizing a 55/45 pass vs. run split, which spiked to 59.9% in 2019. I have them right at the 56/44 split, creating ample opportunity for both players.
I believe their numbers normalize a bit but offer high-end WR2 upside, and Woods personally comes in higher in my projections as WR10 in PPR scoring with Kupp not far behind at WR17. A touchdown back and forth can sway those in either direction.
I recommend taking advantage of the ADP difference between the two as Kupp is going off the boards as WR13, where Woods isn’t going off the board until WR23. They should be right next to each other.
I have concerns with the Vikings receivers for 2020
Gary Kubiak was chosen as the new offensive coordinator after Kevin Stefanski took the head coaching position for the Cleveland Browns. This move made sense as he was already an advisor for the offense and knows the personnel. However, I have concerns.
The issues moving into 2020 are twofold.
First, the Minnesota Vikings don’t have a player on the roster who can replace the deep threat which Stefon Diggs posed. The second issue is the lack of volume in the passing game to receivers. In 2019, the Vikings targeted the wide receivers on just 205 passes, only ahead of the Baltimore Ravens.
It isn’t like the Vikings went out and brought in a pass-happy coordinator. Over his 22 year career, Kubiak’s offenses have been inside of the top 10 in passing attempts just six times. They have been in the bottom 20 just as many times. While this is higher than their 31st ranked from 2019, it’s not great.
Adam Thielen will be the leader in targets as he works from the inside and rookie Justin Jefferson will be on the outside. When Diggs is out, Thielen’s splits show he can be a leader on the offense, even if his stats take a slight hit. His per 16 splits in the seven games where Diggs missed time saw his yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points drop.
Is a drop from 217 points to 194 a season-ender? Absolutely not. But there is some inherent risk that comes with drafting Thielen even with Diggs in Buffalo.
Michael Thomas is still in a league of his own
If you were expecting Michael Thomas to take a step back in 2020, don’t bet on it. While I do project him to fall short of his NFL record season, he will still clear 160 targets, 1,400 yards, and 9 touchdowns. In full PPR scoring, Thomas is nearly 40 points higher than my number two wide receiver, Davante Adams.
As for other pass catchers, the addition of Emmanuel Sanders was one of the best NFL moves of the offseason, even if it isn’t as impactful for fantasy. He will be a flex worthy play in most 12 team leagues. Outside of Sanders, the only other player to look at is TE Jared Cook. He falls just outside the top 12 at the position as I have a hard time seeing him surpassing 70 targets.
When it comes to the running backs, Alvin Kamara is about as safe as it gets. He will see 75% or more of the weekly offensive snaps on a high-scoring offense and in a division that will be the Big-12 of the NFL. A lot of points with defense being optional. Kamara is also an apparent lock for 81 receptions as he has hit the number exactly all three years of his career, including 2019, where he missed two games.
Latavius Murray can’t be overlooked as well. If Kamara misses anytime, Murray has RB1 upside in those weeks. In Weeks 7 and 8, while as the lead back, Murray rushed 48 times for 221 yards (4.6 avg) and 3 touchdowns and caught 14 of 18 passes for 86 yards and another touchdown. He was RB2 and RB3 in those weeks, respectively. Murray is more than just a handcuff, but even in that role, he is one of the most critical handcuffs in fantasy and is a must-own if you select Kamara in the first round.
Deciphering which New York Giants wide receiver to start will be annoying
Last year, 338 of the Giants passing attempts went to wide receivers, with 252 going to Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, and Darius Slayton. There was a two target separation from the leader to third place. That’s it, only two targets. These numbers also came with the Giants ranking seventh in passing attempts in 2019.
Now that Jason Garrett is the new offensive coordinator, we have to wonder if attempts could drop. Since 2007, while either the offensive coordinator or the head coach, Garrett’s teams ranked inside of the top-10 in passing attempts only four times.
As much as I like the talent of Slayton, he is in the same camp as the others for me. They are all in the same range and are capped from a ceiling perspective unless one of the others miss time. Given Shepard’s concussion history, it is possible. You are not drafting any of these guys above WR4 status on your team, which can lead to value if they get on a hot streak.
It will be interesting to see if Garrett can implement more checkdowns to Saquon Barkley this year. Barkley saw a massive drop in targets from his rookie year to 2019 after Daniel Jones took over. Given his desire to look for deeper routes and forget he even has a checkdown, this would be big news for Barkley owners hoping to close the gap on McCaffrey as the de facto RB1.
Grab Miles Sanders and enjoy the ride
After sweating out the NFL Draft, hoping the Philadelphia Eagles did not select another running back, Miles Sanders was one of the clear post-draft winners. The Eagles did not draft an additional back, but they also chose not to pursue one of the several veteran options floating on the market. Unless a random signing of Devonta Freeman happens, Sanders’ value is locked in for 2020 as a low-end RB1 with a shot to crack the top-five.
Especially in the dynasty world, the hype hasn’t died down. If anything, it has gone up since the draft.
Over the past five years, 24 running backs have finished with 200+ carries and 50+ receptions in a single season. Of those, 96% of them finished as an RB1 with an average finish of RB5.
In 2019’s committee with Jordan Howard and Boston Scott, Sanders totaled 179 carries and 50 receptions. He had an absurd 4.6 yards per carry, thanks in part to his 3.25 yards after contact average. Add in his 10.2 yards per catch, and Sanders quietly went over 1,300 yards in his rookie year.
So how can all of this be used when trying to project Sanders for 2020?
The Eagles could take a step back in plays per game from 68.5 in 2019, and Sanders will still see all the work he can ask for. I have the Eagles for 1080 plays this year, which is at 67.5 plays per game.
Since becoming the head coach of Philadelphia, Doug Pederson has gone above a 42% rush rate only once. I have them at a 59/41 split this year, which gives us 440 rushes of plays to spread out. I expect Carson Wentz to get his portion of scrambles and some rushes by receivers, but the vast majority (85%) will fall to the running backs as we’d expect.
Let’s go a layer deeper and see how the other 373 gets divided. Even if we give Sanders a conservative 62% of the rushes, he ends up with 231 carries that can only end up higher come season’s end—even projecting him at a lower 4.5 yards per carry has Sanders with 1,039 yards. Throw in an 8% target share, which is on the lower side, and we add on an additional 60 targets. Use his 2019 79% catch percentage, and it adds another 47 touches. That adds another 479 yards in the air bringing the combined total to 1,500 yards. Honestly, I can see it and don’t feel this is a stretch.
The only downside I can find when projecting Sanders for 2020 is what the loss of G Brandon Brooks for the season might have. Outside of that, I have a hard time seeing Sanders slow down.
Raheem Mostert might be one of the best values at the running back position
When draft day comes, knowing where to find the upside at the running back position is critical, especially once you get past the top 20 players. One of, if not the, best values at the running back position is Raheem Mostert of the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers were number two in total rushing attempts (489) in 2019, behind only the Baltimore Ravens. The difference is 176 of those were by Lamar Jackson. Almost all of the 49ers rushing came from the running backs.
There is also a bit clearer of a picture in 2019 as they traded Matt Breida to the Miami Dolphins. Other than undrafted free agents Salvon Ahmed and JaMycal Hasty, it should all be split between Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Jerick McKinnon.
I see McKinnon being more of the third-down back so long as he has recovered from the knee issues he has been battling for the last few years.
There is no denying the impact Mostert had when given the touches, especially during his explosion at the end of the season. From Weeks 12 to Week 17, he averaged 12.8 touches per game, 1.2 catches per game, and 8 touchdowns on 77 touches. Extending this to the playoffs and Mostert scored 13 touchdowns on 133 touches. That means that roughly one in every ten touches was a touchdown. I don’t need to tell you that this is not sustainable. During their Super Bowl push, Mostert averaged 18.7 touches per game.
Mostert has breakaway speed even at 28 years old. He is shifty enough to force missed tackles, and if given a sizable percentage of touches, he could be a solid buy. While I fully expect the touchdowns to regress, an increase in total touches makes Mostert a solid buy given his current RB28 price tag.
Is D.K. Metcalf being undervalued, again?
2019’s narrative was that a single drill that he ran in his underwear was enough to throw out all of his prosperously good film while at Ole Miss. In 2020, Tyler Lockett will simply see too many targets to make him worth drafting early on as the Seattle Seahawks are still a run-first team. That’s what I keep hearing. Oh, and Metcalf doesn’t have a good enough route tree to be successful. I think people need to stop making excuses and reevaluate D.K. Metcalf’s value for 2020 before it’s too late.
Let’s start with the Lockett argument. Last year was the first time Lockett had seen more than 110 targets in a season; in fact, last year was the first time he saw over 71 in a season. Even if Lockett hits that number again, I fully expect Metcalf to be right with him in terms of targets.
Many people also seem to have forgotten that Metcalf was starting the season at a slight disadvantage. He missed the preseason after having a knee scope performed and honestly had to learn on the fly as a rookie. Even with a “slow” start, Metcalf finished the season with nine games over 60 yards receiving, 10th most in the NFL.
The area I expect Metcalf to make the most significant jump comes in the red zone. As a rookie, Russell Wilson looked his way a ton. A stat I heard from Kyle Yates of FantasyPros blew me away, and I had to double-check. Out of Metcalf’s 17 red zone targets, he only caught 29.4% of them. For a guy who is built like Calvin Johnson, this surprised me. However, on those five catches, he had 47 yards and 4 touchdowns. Say he can increase his catch percentage to a modest 50%, Metcalf now has ten touchdown upside for 2020.
The Seattle Seahawks defense is going to be bad this year. The Legion of Boom days are long gone. Jadeveon Clowney may not coming back, and no one has a clue what is going to happen with CB Quinton Dunbar and his legal issues.
Due to this, I think they will have to pass more than we have been accustomed to seeing. Honestly, it might be a relief to see Russell Wilson allowed to throw more than what feels like eight times a game. The Seahawks were in the bottom ten of attempts in 2019, and I don’t believe, given the defensive questions, it will be a sustainable pattern for 2020.
Outside of Lockett and Metcalf, who will see the increase in targets for the wide receivers? Phillip Dorsett and David Moore? Not likely to me, at least.
Both Lockett and Metcalf should be over the 21% target share mark, and given Metcalf’s yards after the catch potential, we could see him vault past Lockett as the WR1 for them in 2020.
Can Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both have 1,000-yard seasons with Tom Brady?
Oh yeah, they absolutely can. Sorry if I spoiled the ending for you, but when it comes to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense, the sky’s the limit, or as Michael Jordan would say, “The ceiling is the roof.”
After an absurd season in which Jameis Winston was throwing the ball up in the air and didn’t care who caught it, Brady has a different way of doing things. He is by far more risk-averse than Winston; in fact, everyone is more risk-averse than Winston was.
What is yet to be seen is how Brady will work in the Bruce Arians’ offense and whether New England was a product of Brady or visa-versa.
Even though Brady ranked 29th in PFN’s Offensive Share Metric (OSM) out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks, given that he is now throwing to arguably the best WR duo in the NFL, we could see a resurgence in Brady’s stats. PFN’s Aaron Sutton gave a similar take after Brady signed with the Buccaneers in free agency:
“Bruce Arians is as touted and as aggressive a tutor when it comes to the quarterback landscape. Any lost sparkle hidden in Gillette Stadium’s tundra can be unlocked by Arians, but what happens if Brady is exposed early? We haven’t seen Brady in a Disney-inspired passing of the torches, and thus, if he’s brought in a mentorship role for the next new Buccaneers quarterback, this is a less calculated move than it is cavalier.
For a Buccaneers team that hasn’t made the playoffs since the 2007 season and a player that has made it every single year since then except for one, the intersection of possibilities is nothing short of amazing.”
Unless Brady’s addition somehow translates to career lows for both Godwin and Evans, both players should be well over 1,000 yards in 2020.
Not to be overlooked, but the Buccaneers also upgraded the offensive line with OT Joe Haeg and selecting Tristan Wirfs in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Brady should have plenty of time to allow players to get open.
If not, he can always dump it off to his best buddy TE Rob Gronkowski or rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn out of the backfield.
Terry McLaurin is the only player in Washington I feel relatively safe drafting
While Dwayne Haskins will likely improve in 2020, I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him being anything more than my QB3 in a SuperFlex league. So that rules him out.
Then I start looking at the Washington Redskins’ running backs, and it might be the most difficult to project in the NFL. Derrius Guice has only played in five games in his career due to a torn ACL, and we are trying to base his role on 49 total touches. Sure he looks good when he gets the ball in his hands, but will he play all season?
Then there is Adrian Peterson, who is 35 years old. Behind him is Bryce Love, like the previously mentioned players, deals with his own torn ACL. You could tell me 20 different ways this could shake out, and they all could make as much sense as the others.
The only player I would be willing to take a flier on in the later rounds is Antonio Gibson. While there is minimal to go off of in terms of tape as a running back, anytime someone gets the comp to David Johnson coming out of college, you need to listen. While at Memphis, Gibson played mostly receiver but would split in the backfield. He could very well be one of the top 3 receiving backs in this whole class. He is in discussion with D’Andre Swift and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Now that Ron Rivera is the head coach, maybe he becomes a McCaffrey-lite in this offense. I don’t know, but what I do know is his versatility can be used all over the field.
What about tight ends? Surely, they must be better? Actually, no. It might be the single worst offensive skill position group in the NFL. Currently led by Jeremy Sprinkle unless Logan Thomas turns out to be the sleeper that people think he might be. So this is another pass for me.
As for the wide receivers, McLaurin shines above the rest. I can easily see him passing 120 targets; I have him down for 126 in my projections. His lightning speed and ability to blow past a defensive back could see him surpassing 1,100 yards if he is close to the 15.8 ypc we saw in 2019.
Beyond McLaurin, I don’t mind a dart throw on Steven Sims in later rounds or even Antonio Gandy-Golden. However, I would not trust either until proven otherwise. McLaurin came in as my WR18 when my projections were all said and done