Other factors that will impact what the Lions can do in 2020
Head coaching to play a huge role in 2020
Matt Patricia is heading into his third year as a head coach in the NFL in 2020, and the jury is certainly still out on whether he has what it takes to make it beyond a coordinator role. Last year’s 3-12-1 team is certainly a poor reflection on him, but as I stated earlier, it is not an accurate reflection of this team and his job as a coach. Before Stafford went down, the Lions were 3-3-1, and that includes a game against the Packers where they were completely robbed by poor refereeing.
Patricia’s specialty is supposed to be defense, but the defense did not look good in 2020, allowing over 400 yards and 26.4 points per game. I think this is largely due to a lack of talent on that side of the ball, but there will be no excuses this year with the talent the Lions were able to bring in on the defensive side of the ball via the draft and free agency. Patricia’s job and the Lions’ success will largely hinge on the performance of the defense in 2020, and I expect to see this unit rise to the occasion in 2020.
Enough offensive and defensive weapons to scare the NFC North
As analytics push the NFL more and more towards the passing game, I argue that the Lions have not only the best pass offense, but also the best pass defense in the NFC North. They have the second-best quarterback in Stafford and far and away the best receiving depth chart. Both Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. are legitimate wide receiver one options, and whichever one gets matched up with the opposition’s second corner, should feast.
The Lions also retain Amendola, who is excellent in the slot and gets open with ease. Last year’s top 10 pick, Hockenson, is an excellent breakout candidate, and I expect him to improve mightily with Stafford back under center.
We’ve discussed the new additions in the defensive secondary at length already, and I expect after the complete overhaul, for the Lions to improve mightily from their 32nd ranking this past year. While the NFC North receiver talent regressed in 2020, the Lions added two shutdown corners fully capable of matching up with any receiver in the division.
None of the North teams have much depth beyond their top receivers, Davante Adams, Adam Thielen, and Allen Robinson. Expect the Lions to use their vast resources in the secondary to shut down these teams’ top pass catchers, leaving these division rivals who failed to improve their receiving corps in 2020 with very little options to move the ball through the air.
The quality of competition in the NFC North is not what it once was
Speaking of the Lions’ NFC North rivals, I believe every team in the division regressed in talent from 2020, furthering my confidence in the Lions chances. Perhaps no team regressed more than the Packers, who are worse at receiver, offensive line, and defense. Despite many holes on the roster, they decided to use their top two draft picks on a developmental QB and a running back to play behind Aaron Jones.
This team appears to be in the midst of an identity crisis, and unless Aaron Rodgers can will them to victory with his incredible playmaking ability, I do not feel like they will make much noise in 2020.
The Vikings also lost key players on both sides of the ball. I expect the loss of Stefon Diggs to have a huge impact on this offense, as Thielen often struggled to beat coverage with Diggs off the field in prior years. The potential holdout of Dalvin Cook is also worrisome. The Vikings will also likely roll out Mike Hughes and rookie Jeff Gladney as starting corners after losing Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes. Expect the Lions aforementioned star receivers to feast on these matchups in 2020.
Lastly, I do not believe in this Bears team at all. There are little to no legitimate weapons on offense surrounding whichever uninspiring quarterback starts in 2020. Do not expect the addition of Ted Ginn Jr. or Jimmy Graham, who are well past their primes, to make a drastic impact in 2020. The defense will likely be solid, but it will not be enough.
Therefore, with the injection of talent, the regressing rivals in the NFC North, and the value presented on sportsbooks based on low expectations in 2020, I am wrapping up this Detroit Lions betting preview by advising these plays, which I have of course also made.
Lions over 6.5 wins (-130) 5 units (Max Bet)
Lions to win the NFC North (+650) 2 units
Exact NFC North Order: 1. Lions 2. Vikings 3. Packers 4. Bears (+3700) .25 units
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