Week 8 was so close to being another profitable week for me. If the Cardinals had just been competent on offense or we had just another single point from the Raiders and Texans game, we would be looking at a fifth profitable week. Instead, as it stands, I am now 19-21 and down 4.6 units on the season. Not terrible, but it is time to turn it around with the 2019 NFL Week 9 picks.
Before we get into the article, let’s first take a second to look at what lessons we learned in Week 8.
Starting with our two wins on the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars points, and while we sweated these wins a little into the fourth quarter, both felt comfortable. The Jaguars offense is solid, and barring a couple of outings against excellent defenses this year, have been very reliable. We will be using them again very shortly.
As for the Titans, well, they struggled against one of the worst pass defenses in NFL but eventually hit that over. The lesson here is that the Titans offense is always going to be around that 20-point mark, so picking them for over or under is a tough call. However, the Buccaneers defense remains ripe for the picking, and if the line is right, they are a team to target for both opponent team points and total game points.
Now, unfortunately, we need to move onto our losses. Firstly, I will hold my hands up and say I was just plain wrong about the Philadelphia Eagles. I thought the Bills defense could shut them down, and when I saw strong winds, I was very confident. However, the Eagles ground game proved again when given the opportunity it can be incredible. This outcome makes me hesitant to pick against the Eagles, but experiences make me nervous picking them either, but also shows me that the Bills defense is a tough one to judge.
Now for the two losses that really just wound me up. The Cardinals offense really should have mustered more than nine measly points. We lost that game by 7.5 points, and I had the Cardinals for 17-20 points in this game. The lesson for me here is that the Saints offense is actually quite talented. The issue sometimes this season is that they have taken their foot off the throat when leading big, and it has led to some inflated points totals for opponents.
As for the Oakland Raiders and Houston Texans game, I genuinely feel like I had a good read on it. However, 50-plus points are hard to get, and I would have perhaps been better looking at one of the team totals as opposed to a game total that high.
That brings me to my selections for Week 9 point totals and a bigger shift towards backing individual teams as opposed to game totals. The NFL is a tough league week-to-week, and getting the performance you want out of both sides can be tricky to call. However, by just focusing on the points total of one team, you can eliminate half the factors in the game.
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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
London games always complicate matters a little, and that is even more so the case at Wembley Stadium. The last five games at Wembley have seen the under hit, but this game screams over to me right now. Both the Jaguars and Texans are better offensively than defensively. However, I need to respect the history of the stadium and the situation when it comes to low scoring games.
That being said, the Jaguars have a history of embarrassing teams on their first trip over to London. The last over to hit was the Jaguars 44-7 mauling of the Baltimore Ravens in 2017. Yes, the Jaguars struggled last year against the first time traveling Philadelphia Eagles, but the circumstances were different. The Eagles were strong defensively, and the Jaguars offense was destroying itself and the team’s morale.
So back to 2019 and why I see the Jaguars having a good day offensively. Right now, the weather is expected to be ok. Not great, as it rarely ever is in London at this time of year, but not a monsoon either. In the last five weeks with Gardner Minshew under center, the Jaguars have scored over 25 points on four occasions. The only struggle was against a Saints defense we now know to be very good.
In a similar vein, here are the last four games defensively for the Texans, 32, 24, 30 & 24. Now with JJ Watt sidelined, the Jaguars should have little concerns moving the ball and should be able to score multiple touchdowns in a game I really believe could be a very entertaining shootout.
1u – Jacksonville Jaguars Over 22.5 Total Points | -106
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans
The only team total which bit me last week was my only under pick of the week, so I am cautious here. The Panthers were humiliated in San Francisco and will be desperate to bounce back. However, they are facing a Titans team that has a very stout defense, ranking top-10 against the run, and top-15 against the pass.
This Panthers offense has generally been very productive this season, but this could be a tough spot against a Titans team who rarely let offensive units go big on them. In fact, only once this season has a team put up over 20 points against them. That was the Buccaneers last week, who I believe has a far more explosive offense than the Panthers. Christian McCaffrey is the X-factor here, but this game has all the makings of a 20-17 type game, and I really like the Titans to keep McCaffrey under wraps, while piling more pressure on the plate of Kyle Allen.
1u – Carolina Panthers Under 22.5 Total Points | -109
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks
As we discussed above, going against the Buccaneers defense is usually the play here, but the Seahawks total is up in the 28-30 region, and that is too much for me to go chasing. However, this feels like an excellent spot for the Buccaneers’ high-powered offense, led by quarterback Jameis Winston, to victimize a mediocre Seattle defense. Seattle ranks in the bottom half of the league defensively, and the Buccaneers should be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air.
This game has the potential to be a fascinating one, with two bad offenses and two mediocre to bad defenses. The Buccaneers offense, which is firing under new head coach Bruce Arians, have only scored under 23 points once in their last five games, and that came against a very stingy Titans defense. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have allowed 25 or more points in five games this year and allowed a Matt Schaub-led offense to score 20 points last week.
1u – Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 23.5 Total Points | -114
Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders
I love watching Detroit play this season as their offense has really opened up. They have failed to reach the 25-point threshold just twice this season and have scored 30 or more in each of the last two weeks. Equally, the Raiders are fun to watch, as their defense struggles, but their offense is figuring things out.
In the last two weeks, the Raiders have allowed a total of 69 points scored against them, and have only kept teams below 25 on three occasions. This game has the makings of being another extremely entertaining one in the afternoon window Sunday.
1u – Detroit Lions Over 24.5 Total Points | -110
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Chargers
I am going to end the Week 9 picks column of the 2019 NFL season with my favorite pick of the day. Quite simply, just give me all the Packers this week, as their offense has clicked lately, and it is a joy to watch. Since Week 2, they have scored 25 or more points on five occasions and have scored 73 points in the last two weeks.
While the Chargers defense has been fine, they have not played a team of this undeniable quality. The best offense the Chargers have encountered this year has been the Colts and Texans in Week’s 1 & 3 when both offenses were still figuring things out. Since then, they have faced Miami, Denver, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Chicago. That is hardly a murderer’s row of offenses, and frankly, they pale in comparison to what the Chargers are bringing to the table right now.
1u – Green Bay Packers Over 24.5 Total Points | -105
Ben Rolfe is an NFL picks writer and editor at PFN. You can follow him @benrolfe15 on twitter. For more gambling information and bets, make sure to get our All-Access Pass! Follow us on Twitter for more great content @PFN365.
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