Determining value in each round of a fantasy football draft is essential to having a successful draft, and more importantly, a successful season. Every year there are players that are overvalued and others that go under the radar. The 2019 fantasy football season will be no different.
One player that continuously seems to go under the fantasy radar is New England Patriots’ running back James White. For the most part, White has been a productive player over the last few years. Last season, White completed a career season with 1,176 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns. He would go on to finish as the RB7 in PPR leagues with 233.1 fantasy points in full-point formats.
No one should expect White to duplicate those types of numbers again in 2019. But they shouldn’t look past his capabilities as a pass catcher out of the Patriots backfield either. According to his current ADP, however, that’s exactly the case.
White is currently being drafted as the RB27 going into the 2019 fantasy football season. His ADP is at the 6.09 mark in 12-team PPR leagues. That seems highly undervalued coming off of a top 10 performance, but there are circumstances surrounding White that typically have fantasy owners hesitant about taking him in earlier rounds. The varied weekly gameplans of Bill Belichick and the number of mouths to feed in the Patriots’ backfield lead the list of reasons.
Crowded backfield derails White’s fantasy value
This may be shocking to some, but NFL head coaches don’t care about your fantasy team. Bill Belichick certainly doesn’t care about your fantasy team. Fantasy owners typically prefer running backs that can carry the workload on all three downs and that can get 20+ touches per game. While there are still some teams that strategize this way, most teams are now using some sort of committee approach with their backs.
Belichick is definitely a coach that prefers to use multiple backs and game plans them differently from week to week. It’s why a lot of fantasy owners prefer to stay away from Patriots running backs altogether. Overall, Sony Michel is expected to see the majority of early-down work, with White primarily in on passing situations. Rookie Damien Harris is also likely to see a good chunk of touches.
All in all, this backfield will be split pretty evenly. It’s understandable why fantasy owners would want to shy away from White in this crowd. A crowded backfield, however, does not automatically translate into diminished usage.
James White’s usage should remain high
New England understands that with Tom Brady‘s age, they need to continue to highly involve their backs. As the lead pass catcher of the Patriots RBs, White greatly benefited from that in 2018. Brady threw 570 pass attempts last season – 123 of those were targeted to White. That accounts for 21.6 percent of Brady’s passes. Only Christian McCaffrey had more targets among running backs, and in terms of receptions, White was third behind only McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley.
It’s important to note that White was on the field for a career-high 53.6 percent of the Patriots snaps in 2018. Prior to that, he had never been on the field for more than 39.0 percent. Truthfully, some of that spike had to do with New England dealing with some injuries last year. Jeremy Hill was lost for the season following Week 1, Rex Burkhead spent half the year on injured reserve, and Michel was forced to miss a few games as well.
White had to man the backfield in place while those guys were out, but it’s not as if he took a backseat when they returned. The Patriots saw that increasing the usage of their running backs helped to take some pressure off of Brady. White greatly benefited as a result.
With the retirement of Rob Gronkowski, New England could lean on White even more in 2019.
Gronkowski’s retirement opens up targets
In a down year, Rob Gronkowski still saw 72 targets, catching 47 of those and scoring 3 touchdowns. He was much more utilized in the playoffs, particularly the AFC Conference Championship game and the Super Bowl where he combined for 12 receptions and 166 yards.
The Patriots love to involve their tight ends in the offense, and losing Gronkowski will certainly hinder how they are utilized. Surprisingly, New England ignored the position in the draft and really haven’t provided any sort of solution this offseason. They signed Ben Watson after his cameo retirement, but he will be suspended for the first four games of the season following a failed drug test. Austin Seferian-Jenkins was released by the Patriots on Tuesday, leaving Matt LaCosse as the lead tight end heading into the season.
Instead of attempting to make those guys out to be something they’re not, my belief is that White is going to be the recipient of a large portion of these leftover targets. It’s hard to believe that he’ll see 123 targets again, but 100+ is not out of the realm of possibility. That alone gives White high-end RB2 upside in PPR leagues.
There is also speculation that the Patriots could elect to cut Rex Burkhead at some point this offseason. If they do, I personally believe it boosts Damien Harris‘ fantasy value more than anyone as I foresee him taking over that type of role. It’s something to keep in mind, though, as it would be one less mouth to feed in that backfield.
Productive but not consistent
While James White certainly has RB2 upside, you’re probably going to be in trouble relying on him in that spot week to week. That’s because although White has proven he’s fantasy productive, it’s not at a consistent level. The Patriots often change their game plans. In some cases, that’s meant White is highly featured. In others, he’s been barely utilized.
For example, in last year’s playoffs, White caught 15 receptions in the AFC Divisional Round against the Los Angeles Chargers. Two games later in the Super Bowl, White had just three touches total against the Los Angeles Rams.
White’s ceiling is certainly high, but his floor is just as low. Projecting accurately which games White will boom should certainly lead to great fantasy output.
Final Verdict
The uncertainty of the Patriots’ backfield and the addition of Damien Harris certainly drives White’s fantasy stock down. To be listed as the RB27, however, is far too low if you ask me. In standard formats, the sixth round of redraft leagues is probably where I’d look to take White. But for PPR leagues, he deserves to be rated higher in the rankings.
I’d consider taking him a round or two ahead of where he’s going now in those formats. That’s great value, however, if you can snag White in the sixth or later of your fantasy draft. He should certainly help bolster a strong RB core for fantasy owners in 2019.