Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
Pressured completion percentage 2018 – limited to QBs with 2019 fantasy relevance
1. Drew Brees – 51.6%
2. Kirk Cousins – 49.7%
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick – 48.3%
4. Cam Newton – 47.1%29. Tom Brady – 24.2%
30. Josh Allen – 22.2%
31. Aaron Rodgers – 22.0%
32. Matthew Stafford – 15.6%— Nick Faber (@NickFaberNFL) March 31, 2019
The Case
Matthew Stafford is the unquestioned leader of the Detroit Lions, but he has yet to win a playoff game with the team since he was drafted by the Lions first overall in 2009.
Stafford signed a mega-contract extension before last season but had his worst season as a pro. He failed to throw over 4,000 yards for the first time since his first two seasons of his career. However, his 66.1 percent completion rate, which was the second-highest of his career, was the only redeeming stat for last season. Although, he did play through a back injury that inhibited his performance.
One of the primary explanations for his subpar season was the shift in offensive philosophy brought in by first-year head coach Matt Patricia last season. A new commitment to the run game created fewer chances for Stafford to throw the ball around the field. Besides Stafford’s struggles with this modern offensive philosophy, offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter also seemed skirmish about the aggressive game plans and became far too predictable. The Lions converted just 36.1 percent on third down attempts, and only averaged 20.2 points per game.
Head Coach Matt Patricia decided to move on from Jim Bob Cooter and brought in long-time Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. Bevell helped make running backs Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch part of an elite running attack. The expectation is that Bevell can do the same with rookie sensation Kerryon Johnson.
The Lions’ second-round pick impressed in his rookie season with 641 yards and three touchdowns in just ten games. Johnson averaged an impressive 5.4 yards per carry, which was the best for a Detroit Lions leading rusher since Barry Sanders dazzled us in Detroit. Kerryon Johnson will now become the focal point of the Lions offense, not Matthew Stafford.
The drafting of the best tight end in the 2019 class, T.J. Hockenson, is essentially adding another offensive lineman to the starting eleven because Hockenson is such an excellent run-blocker. The running game is now the priority in Detroit this season.
The Verdict
The Detroit Lions play in a super competitive NFC North division, so will the Lions compete?
The running game should be formidable, and the defense is rapidly improving with Patricia molding the unit in Patriots fashion.
The Lions do have offensive weapons with Johnson, third-year WR Kenny Golladay who is coming off his first 1,000-yard season, along with veteran newcomers C.J. Anderson, Danny Amendola, Jesse James, and the previously mentioned rookie tight end Hockenson.
Stafford should not have to sling the ball 40 times a game, which has led the Lions to be an aerial attack that fantasy football owners look to for potential contributors.
The new offensive system will feature a dominant run game and varied passing attack. This type of philosophy typically doesn’t lead to fantasy football gold for the quarterbacks. Stafford is currently being drafted as the QB22 along with the likes of Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins, and Derek Carr. Take the upside of each of these quarterbacks and avoid Stafford.
Dennis Sosic is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the Cleveland Browns and Fantasy Football. Dennis is also a co-host on the AFC North and Goal podcast for PFN. You can follow him @CALL_ME_SOS on Twitter.