There is no bigger lottery in sports than the NFL Draft. Even a prospect that seems like a guaranteed, can’t miss talent can prove to be a bust, while the player that no team thought could make it can end up being one of the most successful players. It is always interesting to go back to a draft class with hindsight and examine what teams could have done differently, which is precisely what I’m going to do with this 2016 NFL redraft.
However, this isn’t your standard redraft.
Using Relative Athletic Score (RAS), a way of measuring a player’s athletic performance relative to their peers, the team selection is defined by the most athletic player available at the position the team initially selected. There is a stipulation that to be considered for selection, the player must have played at least one game in the NFL.
It provides a unique angle on the athleticism versus talent debate, as well as removing any character red flags that may influence a decision.
2016 NFL Redraft: How teams should have drafted according to RAS
1. Los Angeles Rams: Carson Wentz, QB North Dakota State
The Los Angeles Rams selected Jared Goff with the first overall pick of the 2016 NFL Draft. If the Rams had selected purely based on athletic ability, they would have selected Carson Wentz.
Wentz has elite size and agility at the QB position, with good speed and explosion, and received a RAS of 9.62 from his performance at the 2016 NFL Combine.
Both players have led their team to the Super Bowl, and both have thrown for over 14,000 yards with similar career completion percentages.
2. Philadelphia Eagles: Jeff Driskel, QB Louisiana Tech
The Eagles traded up to secure their franchise QB in Wentz, but in this 2016 NFL redraft, they land a quarterback with a similar athletic profile in Jeff Driskel.
With a 4.56 40 yard dash, Driskel posted elite speed combined with elite size and explosion to receive a RAS of 9.52. He was selected with the 207th selection by the San Francisco 49ers but is better known for backup stints replacing Andy Dalton and Matthew Stafford at the Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions.
Driskel has put speed and explosion to use with an average 3.9 yards per carry and three touchdowns when running with the ball, a better YPC average than Wentz.
3. Los Angeles Chargers: Emmanuel Ogbah, DE Oklahoma State
In this 2016 NFL redraft, the Chargers exchange 2016 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Joey Bosa for the more athletically gifted defensive end, Emmanuel Ogbah.
Although Ogbah didn’t run at the NFL Combine, he recorded a 4.63 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, giving him elite speed for a man of 273lbs. With impressive vertical and broad jumps, he had a great explosion grade to help contribute to a 9.34 RAS.
Ogbah has 18 career sacks and a Super Bowl ring from his time in Kansas City after being a second-round selection of the Cleveland Browns in 2016.
4. Dallas Cowboys: Darius Jackson, RB Eastern Michigan
Ezekiel Elliott recently claimed that he has dominated the NFL since coming into the league in 2016, but he wasn’t the most athletic running back that year. That honor fell to Darius Jackson, who was selected some 212 places later by the Dallas Cowboys but becomes a first-round pick in this 2016 NFL redraft.
With a RAS of 9.86, Jackson was not only the most athletic running back but also one of the most athletic players in the whole class. He received elite speed and explosion grades after running a 4.4 40-yard dash and 6.82 3 cone drill at his Pro Day.
Jackson has just six career carries for 16 yards while Elliott has twice led the NFL in rushing yards.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jalen Ramsey, CB Florida State
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the first of multiple teams that land their original selection in this 2016 NFL redraft. Jalen Ramsey was the most athletic cornerback in the 2016 class and parlayed that into 45 passes defended, including nine interceptions, and a first-team All-Pro nod in 2017 before his relationship with the Jaguars turned sour, and he was traded to the Rams.
Ramsey has elite size at the cornerback position and combined that with elite explosion and speed to receive a RAS of 9.84.
6. Baltimore Ravens: Jason Spriggs, OT Indiana
The debate about Mitchell Schwartz and whether he is deemed elite in the NFL has brought athleticism at offensive tackle into the spotlight in recent weeks. Further evidence to fuel the argument can be found right here in this 2016 NFL redraft as the Baltimore Ravens select Jason Spriggs over Ronnie Stanley.
Spriggs, who was drafted in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft by the Green Bay Packers, showed elite speed and explosion, combined with exceptional agility to receive a RAS of 9.78.
Although Spriggs had a solid three-year spell with the Packers before spending 2019 on IR, Stanley has gone on to be one of the highest-rated offensive tackles in the NFL despite his poor agility grade and RAS of 6.02.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Charles Tapper, DE Oklahoma
The San Francisco 49ers recently traded their 2016 first-round selection, DeForest Buckner, to the Indianapolis Colts. If they’d have drafted based purely on athletic ability, then they would never have had him to trade away.
In this 2016 NFL redraft, the 49ers select Charles Tapper out of Oklahoma.
Despite having poor size at the defensive end position, Tapper received a 9.3 RAS thanks to an elite speed grade and a good explosion grade. He recorded a 4.59 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine.
After being drafted in the fourth round by the Cowboys, Tapper played just two games in Dallas and earned his only career sack in a 2017 win over the New York Giants. He was most recently with the New York Jets before being cut earlier this year.
8. Tennessee Titans: Brandon Shell, OT South Carolina
Brandon Shell just signed a two year $11 million dollar contract with the Seattle Seahawks after spending the first four years of his career with the New York Jets. In this 2016 NFL redraft, he would have been a first-round pick of the Tennessee Titans rather than a fifth-rounder.
Shell was the second most athletic tackle in the 2016 class. He has good size for the position while recording great explosion and speed. His explosion was shown with impressive 10, and 20 yard split times despite his overall 40 time not being particularly head-turning.
9. Chicago Bears: Leonard Floyd, LB Georgia
The Chicago Bears climbed up two spots in the 2016 NFL Draft to snag the most athletic linebacker in the class, Leonard Floyd, and nothing changed in this 2016 NFL redraft.
Floyd was well respected coming out of Georgia, with many analysts having him rated as a Top 10 prospect and one of the best linebackers in the class. Although he suffered a hamstring injury at the NFL Combine, he still managed to put together a RAS of 9.81 across the combine and his Pro Day.
Despite being named to the 2016 NFL All-Rookie Team, Floyd has never fully lived up to the hype in Chicago and was cut by the team in the spring. He’ll line up for the Rams in 2020 after signing a one year, $10 million dollar deal.
10. New York Giants: James Bradberry, CB Samford
James Bradberry was one of the Giants’ big free-agency acquisitions earlier this year, signing a three year, $45 million dollar deal. They could have drafted him instead of Eli Apple as they do here.
Bradberry was drafted in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft by the Carolina Panthers and has 47 passes defended, including eight interceptions in his four-year career. Apple, on the other hand, has 33 passes defended with three interceptions while bouncing from New York to New Orleans and now Carolina.
Bradberry’s 9.17 RAS was helped by an elite size grade and impressive broad jump.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Vernon Hargreaves III, CB Florida
As with the Jaguars and the Bears, the Buccaneers land their original selection in this 2016 NFL redraft. Hargreaves was a highly decorated college cornerback and an athletic specimen, but injuries hampered his time in Tampa Bay, and he was waived midway through 2019.
Despite having poor height for the cornerback position, Hargreaves had elite explosion with a short shuttle, vertical jump, and broad jump measurements that ranked amongst the best in the class. He received a RAS of 9.27, the third most athletic cornerback in 2016.
12. New Orleans Saints: Justin Zimmer, DT Ferris State
To say Ferris State University hasn’t got a rich NFL Draft heritage is an understatement. Zach Sieler, a seventh-round selection of the Ravens in the 2019 NFL Draft, is there only draftee to date. However, based on athletic ability alone, Justin Zimmer would have been the first-round selection of the New Orleans Saints in place of Sheldon Rankins.
Zimmer set all his testing scores at his Pro Day but scored elite grades for explosion, agility, and speed. His 4.91 40 yard dash was particularly impressive for a man listed at 302 pounds.
Although Zimmer went undrafted, he spent time with the Buffalo Bills and the Saints before making a first career appearance for the Falcons in 2018. He made his first career tackle as a Cleveland Brown in 2019 and contributed five tackles in two games for the Browns.
13. Miami Dolphins: Zach Sterup, OT Nebraska
Zach Sterup may be a familiar name to Miami Dolphins fans now, but in 2016 he went undrafted out of Nebraska. In this 2016 NFL redraft, he cuts out the journey through Kansas City, New York, and Cleveland and replaces Laremy Tunsil as the 13th overall selection for the Dolphins.
Sterup is another example of athletic ability not necessarily translating to the NFL at the offensive tackle position. With great speed and size, good agility, and explosion, Sterup received a 9.28 RAS.
He played 12 games for the Dolphins, starting two, between 2017 and 2018, but was cut by Miami at the start of the 2019 season.
14. Oakland Raiders: Kamu Grugier-Hill, S Eastern Illinois
The former sixth-round pick of the New England Patriots may be more recognizable to Eagles and now Dolphins fans as a linebacker, but Kamu Grugier-Hill was the most athletic player at the safety position when he came out of Eastern Illinois. In this 2016 NFL redraft, he replaces Karl Joseph as the then Oakland Raiders first-round pick.
Grugier-Hill ran a sensational 4.45 40 yard dash at his Pro Day, contributing to an elite speed grade. With elite explosion, good size, and agility, he received a 9.64 RAS.
Whereas Grugier-Hill made little impact as a safety, Joseph had an interception in each of his four seasons in Oakland.
15. Cleveland Browns: Corey Coleman, WR Baylor
Corey Coleman was the first wide receiver selected in the 2016 NFL Draft, and as the most athletic receiver in the class, he remains as the Browns selection in this 2016 NFL redraft.
After winning the Biletnikoff Award as the best wide receiver in college football in 2015, Coleman declared for the draft and put on an impressive athletic display at the NFL Combine. With elite speed, agility, and explosion, he received a RAS of 9.66, which was far above the next best receiver.
His college production and athleticism haven’t translated to the NFL, and the Browns traded away Coleman before the 2018 season. A career marred by injury, he missed 2019 after tearing his ACL during his first training camp with the Giants.
16. Detroit Lions: Joe Haeg, OT North Dakota State
Having protected Wentz at North Dakota State, Joe Haeg followed his former teammate into the NFL as a fifth-round pick of the Indianapolis Colts. In this 2016 NFL redraft, the athletic tackle would replace Taylor Decker as the 16th overall selection of the Detriot Lions.
Haeg combined elite agility and great speed grades to receive a 9.32 RAS despite his weight of 304 pounds being classed as poor by NFL standards.
Despite making 29 starts over his first two seasons in Indianapolis, Haeg became a swing player during 2019 and signed a one year deal with the Buccaneers for 2020.
17. Atlanta Falcons: Jordan Lucas, S Penn State
The former Penn State safety was a sixth-round selection of the Dolphins, but his speed and explosion grades see him taken in place of Keanu Neal as the Atlanta Falcons first-round selection in this 2016 NFL redraft.
Lucas received a 9.35 RAS after running a 4.45 40 yard dash and jumping a 10 feet 10-inch broad jump at his Pro Day. Despite his elite speed and explosion, Lucas measured poorly for height and weight at the safety position.
By comparison, Neal received excellent grades for size but only scored a 6.07 RAS due to poor speed and agility grades. Neal went on to receive All-Rookie honors in his first year, whereas Lucas has made just four career starts, all for Kansas City.
18. Indianapolis Colts: Jake Brendel, C UCLA
Ryan Kelly has been one of the best centers in the NFL since being drafted by the Colts in 2016. Despite receiving a RAS of 9.54, he wasn’t the most athletic center in that class. That honor falls to former UCLA center Jake Brendel whose 9.94 RAS led all offensive linemen.
Although Brendel had elite speed and agility grades, combined with good size and explosion, he went undrafted. He was picked up as a UDFA by the Cowboys, but Brendel made most of his career appearances for the Dolphins, making three starts in 2018 before moving onto the Broncos and Ravens.
19. Buffalo Bills: Shaq Lawson, DE Clemson
After excelling in his junior season for Clemson, Shaq Lawson impressed at the NFL Combine with great speed and agility, giving him a 9.12 RAS. Lawson was selected by the Bills as their first-round pick, as he is here in this 2016 NFL redraft.
Unfortunately, Lawson has failed to consistently contribute for the Bills, with just 17 starts in his four-year career. Although he has multiple sacks, he hasn’t been the disruptive defensive force that the Bills would have hoped for, and he will suit up for the Dolphins in 2020 after having his fifth-year option declined.
20. New York Jets: Aaron Wallace, LB UCLA
Darron Lee was the first-round pick of the Jets in 2016 and made the starting inside linebacker position his own until suspension in 2018 for violating NFL policy on performance-enhancing drugs. Lee was traded to the Chiefs in 2019, where he played 16 games during their Super Bowl season.
Lee had a RAS of 8.54, and in this 2016 NFL redraft, the Jets would take the more athletic Aaron Wallace out of UCLA. Wallace received a RAS of 9.42 with elite speed and explosion.
Wallace was a seventh-round pick of the Titans, making 17 tackles over a 13 game career in Tennessee before bouncing around Cincinnati and Denver.
21. Houston Texans: Josh Doctson, WR TCU
Josh Doctson was a first-round pick of the Washington Football Team in 2016, but his athletic ability will see him climb a place in this 2016 NFL redraft. He replaces Will Fuller as the selection for the Houston Texans with a RAS of 9.41.
Although several measurements that makeup RAS were good, it was Doctson’s elite explosiveness that boosted his score. Fuller had elite speed, but poor size and okay agility limited him to a 7.16 RAS.
Both Doctson and Fuller have seen their career hampered by injury. However, Fuller’s 32.75 average overall OSM compared to Doctson’s 26.62 shows that Fuller has been more valuable to the Texans than Doctson has been to Washington.
22. Washington Football Team: Tyreek Hill, WR West Alabama
No other team would benefit more from this 2016 NFL redraft than the Washington Football Team. With the 22nd overall pick, they selected Doctson, and as mentioned above, it didn’t work out perfectly for either party. Instead, Washington selects Tyreek Hill, one of the most explosive wide receivers in the game right now.
Hill received a 9.39 RAS with elite speed, explosion, and agility. The speed that is now the hallmark of his game was evident with a 4.29 40 yard dash at his Pro Day.
Hill would go on to achieve 4115 receiving yards in his four-year career to date, with an average overall OSM of 36.90. Of course, he wouldn’t have Patrick Mahomes in Washington.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Tevaun Smith, WR Iowa
The 2016 first-round wide receiver class could hardly be called a vintage year. Laquon Treadwell is no exception, starting just 16 games and compiling only 701 receiving yards during his four years with the Minnesota Vikings.
Treadwell received a 3.33 RAS coming out of Ole Miss, with his size grade being the only redeeming feature in an otherwise bleak card.
By contrast, the most athletic receiver available was Tevaun Smith, a wide receiver out of Iowa whose elite speed and good size, explosion, and agility gave him a 9.25 RAS.
Smith went undrafted in 2016 and played just two games for the Colts without registering a single reception.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Eli Apple, CB Ohio State
As alluded to earlier, Apple has had a tumultuous NFL career. Despite this, there is no escaping that with a RAS of 9.01, he was one of the most athletic corners in the 2016 class. Apple is still a first-round selection in this 2016 NFL redraft.
Apple carried his strong college career into the NFL Combine with an impressive 4.4 40 yard dash giving him a good speed grade to go with a great size grade at the cornerback position.
The Bengals initially selected William Jackson, and although he missed 2016, he has made 34 starts with 30 passes defended over the last three years.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenneth Durden, CB Youngstown State
After a senior season where he had one interception and five pass breakups for Youngstown State, Kenneth Durden was one of the most athletic cornerbacks in the 2016 NFL Draft. With prototypical NFL height and great explosion, he received an 8.86 RAS, which would have been even better if it wasn’t for his slim build.
He ultimately went undrafted and kicked around Oakland, Tennessee, and New York before heading back to the Titans, where he made five appearances in 2018.
26. Denver Broncos: Cardale Jones, QB Ohio State
Cardale Jones has hardly had resounding success in his NFL career. In his only competitive game for the Buffalo Bills, he went 6/11 for 96 yards and an interception after being selected in the fourth round of the 2016 NFL Draft.
Although Paxton Lynch wasn’t exactly a success for the Broncos, it’s difficult to argue that Jones would have been any better.
Jones, however, was more athletic than Lynch with a RAS of 9.61. The high score was predominantly due to his elite size as a quarterback and a good speed grade.
27. Green Bay Packers: Robert Nkemdiche, DT Ole Miss
The Green Bay Packers selected Kenny Clark with the 27th overall selection of the 2016 NFL Draft. Clark has given Green Bay four years of consistently solid defensive play, with his first Pro Bowl coming this year after his most productive season with six sacks and nine tackles for loss.
Robert Nkemdiche has been the model of inconsistency in his short NFL career, but heading into the 2016 NFL Draft, he was one of the most athletic defensive linemen around.
Nkemdiche’s RAS of 9.82 was significantly higher than Clark’s and was made up of elite speed and explosion, which had made him one of the top defensive linemen in college football.
He remains a free agent after being cut by the Dolphins back in November 2019.
28. San Francisco 49ers: Connor McGovern, OG Missouri
Drafted out of Missouri in the fifth round by the Denver Broncos, Connor McGovern’s elite speed and explosion, combined with great agility, see him become a first-rounder in this 2016 NFL redraft.
McGovern replaces Joshua Garnett, who the San Francisco 49ers drafted out of Stanford. He started 11 games in his rookie season, but after injury, he never won his job back and was cut by the 49ers at the start of the 2019 season.
Not only was McGovern the more athletic prospect, with a RAS of 9.84, but he has also had a better NFL career, starting 36 games for the Broncos in the last three years.
29. Arizona Cardinals: David Onyemata, DT Manitoba
The Arizona Cardinals originally drafted Nkemdiche here, and as we’ve already discussed, that didn’t work out too well for all concerned. In this 2016 NFL redraft, the most athletic prospect available at the defensive tackle position late in the first round is David Onyemata.
Onyemata was not as athletic as Nkemdiche, but the defensive tackle out of the University of Manitoba impressed enough to be selected in the fourth round by the Saints.
He showed elite explosion at his Pro Day while also showing elite strength with 33 reps on the bench press. Although his 40 yard dash time wasn’t earth-shattering, the projected 10-yard split was classed as elite.
With 9.5 career sacks and 26 QB hits over his four-year career, Onyemata has better production than Nkemdiche.
30. Carolina Panthers: Brandin Bryant, DT Florida Atlantic
Brandin Bryant, an undrafted rookie out of Florida Atlantic, had to wait until 2019 to get on to the NFL field. He played in four games for the Browns, contributing three tackles. If teams had drafted based on athletic ability alone, then Bryant would have been a first-round pick with a RAS of 9.53.
Bryant was undersized by prototypical NFL standards for the defensive tackle position. He had a poor size grade but made up for a lack of size with elite speed and agility. He also demonstrated incredible strength with 38 bench press reps.
The Panthers drafted Vernon Butler, who never played more than 40% of the defensive snaps in a season and signed a two-year deal with the Bills back in March.
31. Seattle Seahawks: Jack Conklin, OT Michigan State
Although he slips down the first round in this 2016 NFL redraft, Conklin was still one of the most athletic offensive tackles in the class. He would provide both an athletic and skillset improvement over Germain Ifedi, who was the original pick of the Seattle Seahawks.
Conkin had a 9.24 RAS, whereas Ifedi had a RAS of 8.51. The areas where Conkin had the athletic edge over Ifedi were in speed and strength, whereas Ifedi was slightly more explosive.
Both players have been a consistent presence since arriving in the NFL, but Conklin was an All-Pro in his rookie season, and his play earned him a three year, $42 million dollar contract with the Browns.